® World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Companies Citizens
® Policy Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power Too much of: Military heavy metal Technical collection Not enough of: Humans on ground Human expert analysis Technical processing State & local intelligence Public health, water, etc. The real budget is the real policy. Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer dollar is to be spent wisely.
® Intelligence Defined Collection Human Technical Analysis Current Estimative Covert Action Black Ops Mind Ops Counter- intelligence Defensive Offensive Leadership Mindset Courage
® 9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot Collection: –Satellites deaf –Spies incompetent Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode Translation: lack of personnel or funds Processing: no single central OpIntel plot Analysis –Did not connect the dots (dots found to have been known) –Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history) Liaison: business as usual, no demands Mind-set: muddled
® 9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog World Trade Center 1st Bombing –Sidelined to law enforcement –Documents not translated –Ignored bin Ladens open declaration of war –No change to visa or border security process Global Terrorism –Ignored warnings on cockpit and airport safety (industry against) –Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as cost of doing business –Accepted lack of action by other nations
® DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
® 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
® Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6
® Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries
® Asymmetric War Whatever it takes-- –Fight dirty –Fight smart –Sabotage –Bug bombs –Electronic attack –Anthrax = panic –Ju jitsu warfare $500K = $20B loss
® World Has Changed: I OLD SECURITY War Over There State on State War Organized Violence Only State Could Do Defined Rules Clear Winners/Losers NEW SECURITY Terror at Home Non-State Actors Random Violence Anyone Can Play No Rules At All Endless Conflict
® 16 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Home FrontWeaknesses
® TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW World Has Changed: II
® Taking Down the West Electronic Targets Federal Reserve Internet switches Satellite downlinks Power generators Railway controls Fuel tank controls Dam & sewage controls Physical Targets Alaska pipeline Panama canal Telephone switches Cables (Cut Here) Railway bridges Dams and levees Tunnels to cities Bio-war: Suicidal blond blue-eyed plague & smallpox carriers
® Individual as Threat and Target State as Threat and Target Defense Against Weapons Systems Over There Defense of Infrastructure Here at Home Offense Against Fixed Ground Offense Against Distributed Groups OLD NEW PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR
® Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR
® Agricultural Era Power Brotherhood (Blood) Strength (Brute) Memory (Skill) Customs (Tribal Mind) Secret Societies Crusading Religions Citizenship (New Tribe)
® Industrial Era Power Luck/Mineral Discovery Specialization Laws and Rules Concentrated Wealth Armed Forces Taxation & Bureaucracy Infrastructure Fraud & Corruption
® Information Era Power Insider knowledge Social wealth networks Electric power Global transportation Electronic money Electronic communications The Internet
® Hurting High-Tech Brutes Pay attention to them Have a grand strategy –Tribal focus –Regional focus –Money talks –Be ruthless Have your facts right Have public support
® Hurting Low-Tech Brutes Kill them Jail them Impoverish them Diminish them If you cannot combine early intelligence down to the individual level, with ruthlessness, you will lose.
® Hurting Low-Tech Seers Genocide Famine Plagues Water scarcity Unfettered crime Promote war lords Tolerate corruption Avoid them
® Hurting High-Tech Seers Cause Random Panic Cause Plague Crash the Fed Hack Logistics Blow Planes, Trains Blow Tunnels Blow Oil Tanks Random Sniping
® Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat
® New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need huge increase in soft power capabilities 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 16B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthReserve
® Public Intelligence Failure: Uneducated, unengaged, unconnected Why This Matters Homeland security--A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives World War III Players Bacteria Nations GangsCitizens Inc.
® New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
® Seven Intelligence Tribes: The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans
® Modern Presidential Leadership PresidentCongressJudiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation
® Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors Strategic Council Leadership Retreats Global Reserve Special Projects Associate Directors Response Center Public Liaison Civilian Reserve Non-State Actors
® Governance Reform Coalition Cabinet Quality Education Public Health Ethics 7th Generation Issues –Water –Energy –Information
® Electoral Reform Voting on week-ends League of Women Voters & Debates Cabinet Choices in Advance & in Debates Instant Run-Off End Gerrymandering End Corporate Funding
® Lets Get Our Priorities Straight! Third, share the benefits of life with all mankind. Fourth, ensure that life on Earth is sustainable. First, defeat terrorism. Second, strengthen our alliances.
® A Strong America Through Common Sense We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators. We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations. We must have balanced national security capabilities. We must be fiscally sound.
® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World Robert David Steele …the greatest menace to freedom is an inert people... Justice Louis Brandeis