The New Craft of Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace.
Presentation on theme: "The New Craft of Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace."— Presentation transcript:
The New Craft of Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace
Re-Inventing Intelligence This Is My Area of Interest CE CS CI I2 x E2 = CN
Four Different Threat Classes Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR Clearly understood in 1988 but BOTH the U.S. Intelligence Community AND the Military Leaders Refused to Listen.
The Problem with Peacekeepers…. inter alia The big red lips are a clue. To kiss or not to kiss, that is the question. Humanities: Free the Frog Peacekeepers: Eat the Frog Philosophers: Question the Frog Spiritualists: Worship the Frog Engineers: Talking Frog: Way Cool Scientists: Dissect the Frog Merchants: Sell the Frog Politicians: Ignore the Frog Lawyers: Blame the Frog
The time for enlightenment has come. We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future. … In our opinion, we must first atone for the past and open our cards, so to speak. Vladimir Putin 28 January 2009 Davos, Switzerland
Key Negative Trends Collapse of complex societies: catastrophe from disaster for lack of resilience & adaptation as well as corruption Acts of Man creating Acts of God: natural disasters will be more frequent & more severe as we cement more land Acceleration of Earths Demise : changes that used to take 10,000 years now take THREE years; absent Real Time Science and Real Time Public Policy (online, deliberative, transparent) we die Shock Capitalism continues to loot the Earth and has turned USA into a Third World countryUAE (Dubai) is the new Switzerland Political Corruption ascendant 44 dictators, both Republican and Democratic parties are running on empty and very corrupt, elites in towns across America have sold us out
Key Positive Trends Wealth of networks : fortune at the bottom of the pyramid, peace through connectivity, wealth from sharing information GreenMind : Biomimicry, beneficial bacteria, green chemistry, Information Symmetry=Moral Capitalism: : true costs at point of sale; natural capitalism, green to gold, cradle to cradle, home rule, eat local, end of corporate personality Left Hand of God : faith-based dialog and diplomacy, obvious need to end our support to 42 of 44 dictators, shunning of cults Peer to Peer People Power : from the Tao of Democracy to localized Wisdom Councils to Blessed Unrest to the Clock of the Long Now.
We MUST do Whole of Government Intelligence, Military Should Lead the Way
Thinking Holistically Everything is ConnectedGet a Grip!
Open Sources & Ten Threats Economic and social threats including 95% – poverty,99% – infectious disease and 95% – environmental degradation90% Inter-State conflict75% Internal conflict, including 90% – civil war, 80% – genocide and 95% – other large-scale atrocities95% Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation)75% Terrorism80% Transnational organized crime80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN Systems Information Management is not.
Goal of the UN Training Initiative UN Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) I trained the Class Before One for the United Nations in August 2007. The figure here is from the UN, showing their own estimation of what they have access to and the urgent need to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material that is available, so as to integrate all relevant information into UN decision-making at the strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels. Open Source Information 1 2 1.Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions 2.UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Definitions Data is the increment that can be known Information is organized data of generic interest Education is the Process of Sharing Knowledge is information available for application Intelligence is DECISION-SUPPORT Intelligence is also Remedial Education for Adults Wisdom is Collective Intelligence in Being Integrity is the Force that Powers Social Networks. Nature Individuals Social Networks
If you read nothing else, read Chapter 15, New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence
GOV MIL LEA BUS ACAD NGO-Media CIVIL Seven Tribes of Intelligence (Eight if NGO-Media Separated) Three Views on the Nature of Information (Red Secret, Green Open) WE THE MILITARY MUST LEAD THE WAY IN TRANSFORMING INTELLIGENCE Government Intelligence Is Inside Out and Upside Down Using Wrong End of the very expensive telescope
Conscious Evolution in Every Clime and Place CE CS CI I2 x E2 = CN
Collection Integrity Respect Historical Respect Indigenous Seek Out True Costs Seek 360 o Viewpoints Do Real-Time Science Analytic Integrity Never Neglect History 360 o Analysis Always Countervailing Views In Relation to 10/12/8* Practice Analytic Tradecraft Follow the New Rules (26) * 10 threats, 12 policies, 8 challengers Processing Integrity Digitize EVERYTHING Geospatial Time Tag ALL Apply automated analysis Provide human-centric IT Embrace Visualization Program Integrity Practice Golden Rule Respect Reality Respect the Public Be the Moral Agent Eat What You Kill Share Known Truths Leadership Integrity Open Mindset Moral Courage See the Whole Play the Long Game Share Knowledge Seek Wisdom
INTELLIGENCE = DECISION-SUPPORT 1.Define the Requirement 2.Discover the Source(s) 3.Discriminate among Sources & Methods 4.Distill Information into Intelligence 5.Deliver the Intelligence (Timely Usable) Intelligence is defined by its OUTPUT (decision-support) not by its INPUT. Intelligence does not have to be, should not be, classified or restricted. In the Peacekeeping arena, sharing adds value, secrecy reduces value.
POLITICS IS NOT INTELLIGENT Should Be, But Is Not, Synthesis
Theoretical Sharing from Seven Tribes Government, Military, Law Enforcement, Academia, Business, Media & Non-Profit, Civil Society Including Labor & Religion
ACTUAL Information-Sharing & Decision-Support: 2% I am not making this up (second graduate thesis): Typical Embassy collects at best 20% of available relevant information Diplomats outnumbered by singletons from many other agencies, have no money Spies have money, but will only listen to traitors As a collective, spill 80% of the 20% on how it is processed (or not) back to home base
Rule 5 Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant USA failed to translate captured documents from first World Trade Center bombing and from Philippines Need global network of on-call translators in 33+ languages Web-based, 24/7 Military is the best reach-back channel OSS Terrorism Project 1999 Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu Millions
Level of AnalysisThreat GradeComment Strategic Sustainability LOW (2.0) Not sustainable for more than two weeks. Operational Availability MEDIUM (3.0) Many of them scattered around. Tactical Reliability LOW (2.0) Cannibalized parts, stored in open, poorly trained crews. Technical Lethality HIGH (4.0) Best tanks money could buy at the time from Russia. US IC Official Threat on Worst Case Basis General Threat Factor <MEDIUM (2.75) Proper analysis differentiated threat at each level which means each level commander is individually informed. Military Difference 1.25 (31%) Being wrong by 31% is significant nuances matter. On balance, at two of four levels, threat is a LOW threat. Threat (or Factor Being Evaluated) Changes at Each Level of Analysis This example is the T-72 Tank in Libya in 1988, discussed at analyst level across US IC.
LOVE NOT WAR Gandhi Had It Right APPLY THE GOLDEN RULE We Cannot Win With Guns BE ACCOUNTABLE TO ALL Citizens, Congress, Humanity INTEGRATE FAITH & VALUES Morality, Legitimacy, Reciprocity, Transparency DEVISE & IMPLEMENT LONG-TERM Multinational Information Sharing & Sense-Making APPLY OPEN EVERYTHING WITH INTEGRITY Combine Access, Brains, Honor, & Tools START WITH REALITY All Information, All Languages, All the Time
New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security. 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBC Small WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic Aid Port Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public Health Peace Navy Peace is Faster, Better, Cheaper than WarWaging Peace Is Our Focus.
33 CORE FORCE Strategists Advise Policy Constabulary Stabilize Failed States Domestic Threats Fires, Riots, Epidemics Citizen Education Bond Nation through Service Force on Force Deliberate Violence Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch Small Wars Random Violence Ground Truth Observe with Warriors Eyes Core Force for Peace Waging Peace is Primarily a Human Endeavor Call in Peace Targets 24/7 One Man- One Bullet
Need Your Governments Help in Making This an Issue for UN Secretary General. We can Get USA to Pay for an Assistant Secretary General for Decision Support; a Multinational Decision-Support Centre that uses only unclassified information; and an Open Source Agency that is a service of common concern for humanity. CCC M4IS2
Evolves Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IIOSAS) Capability for Each UN Element Evolves into UN Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) We MUST Harness the Distributed Intelligence of the Whole Earth IF We Are to Understand, Deliberate, Decide, and ACT to Create Prosperous World at Peace
Strategic View of Information Producing Peace and Prosperity
Bill Clinton 28 January 2009 Davos, Switzerland A lot of us [NGOs] have lost a great deal in that our wealthy donors have not been able to contribute as generously as they have in the past. We are going to have to learn how to use the Internet and global communications to reach every citizen, to redefine global citizenship so that every citizen, including all those of modest means, feels a responsibility to give, to donate. And in the end, we will be stronger. Paraphrase as recollected by Robert Steele
Figure 14: Global Range of Gifts Table Illustrated All those with a need, however miniscule All those with something to give Time & Space Relations Cluster of Food Need Over Time Powered by Zero Waste Mind-Sets, Enabled by Ubiquitous Information Access Benefit #1: On Demand Precision Giving Benefit #2: Elimination of Overhead Benefit #3: Harnesses Giving of Billion Individuals Who Do Not Give Now Cluster of Medical Needs Peer to peer giving Cluster of Clothing Need Harmonized Giving Organized Giving Time-Phased Harmonized Giving Peacekeeping Intelligence 21: Influence How OTHERS Spend Wks, Mos, Yrs, Decades
M4IS2 Applied to the Harmonization of Investment For Any Given Place Across Weeks, Months, Years, Decades
Truth, Trust, Time Every community needs two Truth & Reconciliation Commissions First for what have we done to our own indigenous & impoverished? Second for what has been done to others in our name? Nobel Prize given in 1990s for a gamer who demonstrated that Trust Lowers the Cost of Doing Business. TrustMoralityis to the physical as ten to one in terms of creating a prosperous world at peace. Time is the one strategic variable that cannot be bought nor replaced. Use it or lose it. CALL FOR INPUTS: Book closes 1 May 2009 for printing in August 2009
I was the most beautiful little frog until a peacekeeper kissed me….
www.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.net To kiss, or not, is a Whole of Government inquiry. Integrity. There is NO Substitute. See especially, www.oss.net/BASIC and www.oss.net/COMMUNITIESwww.oss.net/BASICwww.oss.net/COMMUNITIES Do not skip the NATO OSINT Handbook or the Lecture on New Rules Pieces of PKI Book II at www.oss.net/Peace (including Notional UN training)www.oss.net/Peace