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® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.2 Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000 HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.3 Conflict Facts for 2000 26 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.4 Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 43 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.5 Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.6 Collateral Specifics for 2000 Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.7
® 8 1. Break-Out2. Black Death3. Barricade (Good or Bad)
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.9 Four Threat Types PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.10 Means - Ends Disconnect
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.11 Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or 1,000 Potential George Kennans or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.12 New Strategy: 1 + iii CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAHome Guard Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Minutemen
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.13 Bloom on Biology of Intelligence When conformity enforcers silence diversity generators the group is committing mass suicide Language and culture kill half our brain cells Internal processing more vital than external collection
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.14 Saul on Pathology of Reason Secrecy is pathological, undermines public confidence Intelligence is about disseminated knowledge, not about secrets Western thinking has been corrupted by its focus on industrial processes in isolation from culture.
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.15 Wilson on Unity of Knowledge All knowledge is related and interactive--science without the humanities is mis-guided dangerous science Knowledge and education must be universally distributed within the public, not held back by selected policymakers
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.16 McKibben on Missing Information Information is not a substitute for being there Television killed history-- media only acknowledges reality for which film exists (last 40 years vice 4000) One day of human observation is vastly more valuable than one day of electronic noise.
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.17 McKenna on Real-Time Forget about trying to predict or impose a future Instead, cast a very wide net of intimate probes for early warning of what your clients need Then be able to collect, process, and deliver in real- time, over and over again
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.18 Davenport & Beck on Attention 1) Global Coverage for AWARENESS 2) Surge target-local focus for ATTENTION 3) Domestic political focus for ACTION 10 seconds for scanning, 3 minutes for attention: new standard for products
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.19 Wheaton on Warning Warning solution includes –Casting wide early net –Surging on potential hotspots –Getting seniors attention Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.20 Pelton on Ground Truth Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud You dont have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security We simply are not grasping essential ground truths
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.21 Shawcross on Endless Conflict Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict Good will without strength makes things worse
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.22 Current Doctrine
INFORMATION UNIVERSE Relevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret Decision-Maker Integration, Reflection & Decision RANDOMRANDOM SECRETSECRET EXISTING INPUT normal staff process, counterparts, family/friends OPEN SOURCE INPUT Internet & private sector fee-for-service Information Management Staff Collection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation 1 2
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.24 HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.25 Real-World Information DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *27 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.26 Competing Security Models SI/TK Selective Importation System High/Firewall Just Enough, Just in Time Default to Validated OSINT SI/TK Validated OSINT
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.27 Minimal Mandatory Languages Arabic Catelan Chinese Danish Dari Dutch English Farsi Finnish French German Indonesian Irish Italian Japanese Korean Kurdish Kurmanji Norwegian Pashto Polish Portuguese Russian Serbian Spanish Swedish Tamil Turkish Urdu etc
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.28 TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW BIG CHANGE NUMBER ONE
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.29 The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Open source information is more complex than secrets… BIG CHANGE NUMBER TWO
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.30 A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste…. Dan Quayle, Future DCI
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.31 Policy Intelligence Military Intelligence Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence Minuteman Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education Pieces Not Coming Together International Coalition Options
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.32 New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.33 Global Distributed Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Government Knowledge Intelligence Community 1B10B100B1 TRILLION ROI of 3N for a $1B Bridge to OSINT
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.34 Striking A New Balance TECHNICAL $$ HUMINT $$ OSINT $$ LIFERS MID-CAREER HIRES 1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS IC MANNINGIC DOLLARS UNCLASSIFIED SECRET TS IC PRODUCTION
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.35 PRODUCTION TOOLKIT QA DIRECT ACCESS TOOLKIT MEDIATED ACCESS TOOLKIT Internet Stream Offline Stream Human Experts Temp Hire Approach: World Class/One Day Only PROCESSING TOOLKIT INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing Commercial Feeds Maps & Images Feedback Loop
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.36 Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.37 ICMAP + NSA(P) = IC 2 The Processing Advantage 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.38 OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.39 New Rules of the Game I Informing Policy, not Collecting Secrets Global Coverage beats Hard Targets Translation in 28+ Languages Gets Serious Two Levels Down (Sub-State Intelligence) Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental Processing beats Collection for Dollars Geospatial and Time Tagging Mandatory
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.40 New Rules of the Game II Global OSINT Benchmarking Finally Done Counterintelligence Across the Board Cross-Fertilization (Human & Technical) Decentralized Data Base (NGO, Private) Value = Content + Context + Speed Gap-Driven Collection instead of Priorities Needs-Driven Production vice Capabilities
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.41 New Rules of the Game III Strategic Intelligence Matters More Budget Intelligence is Mandatory Public Intelligence Impact Public Policy Analysts as Managers New Measures of Merit Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing Rules Clearances Matter Less than Knowledge
® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.42 Recommendations SAG Budget Analysis--cross-walk threat/$ SAG Skunkworks--integrated experiments SAG Solutions--cost out now and future SAG Mentors--history, outreach, memory SAG IG--document shortfalls in collection, processing, management, and clients SAG PR--publish unclassified reports
® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
® The New Craft of Intelligence: How State Should Lead Robert David Steele A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.
® Afterthoughts & Additions Robert David Steele Intelligence Coach Prepared 30 August 2003.
TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN.
® Strategic Threat Assessment: A Regional Approach to Intelligence, Force Structure, & Combined Operations Robert David Steele OSS.NET 3 March 2003 Miami,
® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 1 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown.
® Welcome to the Real World: Force Structure Trade-Offs Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
® DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE.
® National Security Policy Survey of the Literature INFORMATION Robert David Steele OSS CEO Updated 19 August 2002.
® Information Peacekeeping & The Future of Intelligence The United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes Robert David Steele NISA 15 Nov 02.
® Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors.
® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele Federal Convention on Emerging Technologies A Forum on Homeland.
® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, and the Real World Robert David Steele A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.
® SNAKES IN THE GRASS: Open Source Intelligence Doctrine Robert D. Steele, OSS CEO.
® European Intelligence Network Open borders demand regional intelligence Decades of lax control over immigration & citizenship demand aggressive policing.
® New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence Robert David Steele Intelligence Coach Prepared 24 October 2002.
Time for a BREAK! You have 45 Minutes. Time Left 44.
C Copyright © 2005, Oracle. All rights reserved. Practice Solutions.
® The Future of Intelligence: Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive Robert David Steele Fall 2004 A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas.
Chapter 14 Energy Generation in Mitochondria and Chlorplasts Essential Cell Biology Third Edition Copyright © Garland Science 2010.
Chapter 12 Membrane Transport Essential Cell Biology Third Edition Copyright © Garland Science 2010.
GLOBAL REALITY 10 Threats, 12 Policies, 10 Major Players 20 Minutes of Context Robert David Steele-Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Co-Founder, Earth Intelligence.
Copyright © Action Works 2008 All Rights Reserved - Photos by David D. Kempster 1.
1 RA III - Regional Training Seminar on CLIMAT&CLIMAT TEMP Reporting Buenos Aires, Argentina, 25 – 27 October 2006 Status of observing programmes in RA.
×1= 9 4 1×1= 1 5 8×1= 8 6 7×1= 7 7 8×3= 24.
Copyright © 2012, Elsevier Inc. All rights Reserved. 1 Chapter 7 Modeling Structure with Blocks.
Copyright © 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1 Computer Systems Organization & Architecture Chapters 8-12 John D. Carpinelli.
1 RA I Sub-Regional Training Seminar on CLIMAT&CLIMAT TEMP Reporting Casablanca, Morocco, 20 – 22 December 2005 Status of observing programmes in RA I.
Chapter 11 Membrane Structure Essential Cell Biology Third Edition Copyright © Garland Science 2010.
Copyright © 2011, Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Author: Julia Richards and R. Scott Hawley.
Petersons Practice AP Exam Cengage Learning Infotrack Database.
Numbers Treasure Hunt Following each question, click on the answer. If correct, the next page will load with a graphic first – these can be used to check.
Chapter 10 Analyzing Genes and Genomes Essential Cell Biology Third Edition Copyright © Garland Science 2010.
PSSA Preparation. Question 1(no calculator) D Question 2 (no calculator)
E3i Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, Collective Intelligence, & Information Peacekeeping Making the Revolution 1 part moral, 1 part conceptual, 1 part technical,
PP Test Review Sections 6-1 to 6-6 Mrs. Rivas 1. 2.
Center on Knowledge Translation for Disability and Rehabilitation Research Information Retrieval for International Disability and Rehabilitation Research.
Symantec 2010 Windows 7 Migration Global Results.
® Open Source Intelligence & Strategic Generalizations Robert David Steele OSS CEO Prepared 25 August 2003.
BMU - E I 1 Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in
SLP – Endless Possibilities What can SLP do for your school? Everything you need to know about SLP – past, present and future.
1 Budapest University of Technology and Economics, BME, 1872 Budapest University of Technology and Economics, BME, 1872 Happy New Year 2012.
Speak Up for Safety Dr. Susan Strauss Harassment & Bullying Consultant November 9, 2012.
CALENDAR NEW CALENDAR
BMU – KI III 1 Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in
® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World Robert David Steele A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.
Copyright © 2011, Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 Author: Julia Richards and R. Scott Hawley.
David Burdett May 11, 2004 Package Binding for WS CDL.
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