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® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

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Presentation on theme: "® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen…."— Presentation transcript:

1 ® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

2 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Conflict Specifics for HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

3 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Conflict Facts for LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

4 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Ethnic Fault Lines Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

5 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution

6 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Collateral Specifics for 2000 Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

7 ® Copyright © OSS Inc

8 ® 8 1. Break-Out2. Black Death3. Barricade (Good or Bad)

9 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Four Threat Types PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR

10 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Means - Ends Disconnect

11 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or 1,000 Potential George Kennans or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water

12 ® Copyright © OSS Inc New Strategy: 1 + iii CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAHome Guard Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Minutemen

13 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Bloom on Biology of Intelligence When conformity enforcers silence diversity generators the group is committing mass suicide Language and culture kill half our brain cells Internal processing more vital than external collection

14 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Saul on Pathology of Reason Secrecy is pathological, undermines public confidence Intelligence is about disseminated knowledge, not about secrets Western thinking has been corrupted by its focus on industrial processes in isolation from culture.

15 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Wilson on Unity of Knowledge All knowledge is related and interactive--science without the humanities is mis-guided dangerous science Knowledge and education must be universally distributed within the public, not held back by selected policymakers

16 ® Copyright © OSS Inc McKibben on Missing Information Information is not a substitute for being there Television killed history-- media only acknowledges reality for which film exists (last 40 years vice 4000) One day of human observation is vastly more valuable than one day of electronic noise.

17 ® Copyright © OSS Inc McKenna on Real-Time Forget about trying to predict or impose a future Instead, cast a very wide net of intimate probes for early warning of what your clients need Then be able to collect, process, and deliver in real- time, over and over again

18 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Davenport & Beck on Attention 1) Global Coverage for AWARENESS 2) Surge target-local focus for ATTENTION 3) Domestic political focus for ACTION 10 seconds for scanning, 3 minutes for attention: new standard for products

19 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Wheaton on Warning Warning solution includes –Casting wide early net –Surging on potential hotspots –Getting seniors attention Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management

20 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Pelton on Ground Truth Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud You dont have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security We simply are not grasping essential ground truths

21 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Shawcross on Endless Conflict Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict Good will without strength makes things worse

22 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Current Doctrine

23 INFORMATION UNIVERSE Relevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret Decision-Maker Integration, Reflection & Decision RANDOMRANDOM SECRETSECRET EXISTING INPUT normal staff process, counterparts, family/friends OPEN SOURCE INPUT Internet & private sector fee-for-service Information Management Staff Collection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation 1 2

24 ® Copyright © OSS Inc HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

25 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Real-World Information DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *27 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO

26 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Competing Security Models SI/TK Selective Importation System High/Firewall Just Enough, Just in Time Default to Validated OSINT SI/TK Validated OSINT

27 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Minimal Mandatory Languages Arabic Catelan Chinese Danish Dari Dutch English Farsi Finnish French German Indonesian Irish Italian Japanese Korean Kurdish Kurmanji Norwegian Pashto Polish Portuguese Russian Serbian Spanish Swedish Tamil Turkish Urdu etc

28 ® Copyright © OSS Inc TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW BIG CHANGE NUMBER ONE

29 ® Copyright © OSS Inc The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Open source information is more complex than secrets… BIG CHANGE NUMBER TWO

30 ® Copyright © OSS Inc A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste…. Dan Quayle, Future DCI

31 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Policy Intelligence Military Intelligence Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence Minuteman Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education Pieces Not Coming Together International Coalition Options

32 ® Copyright © OSS Inc New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

33 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Global Distributed Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Government Knowledge Intelligence Community 1B10B100B1 TRILLION ROI of 3N for a $1B Bridge to OSINT

34 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Striking A New Balance TECHNICAL $$ HUMINT $$ OSINT $$ LIFERS MID-CAREER HIRES DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS IC MANNINGIC DOLLARS UNCLASSIFIED SECRET TS IC PRODUCTION

35 ® Copyright © OSS Inc PRODUCTION TOOLKIT QA DIRECT ACCESS TOOLKIT MEDIATED ACCESS TOOLKIT Internet Stream Offline Stream Human Experts Temp Hire Approach: World Class/One Day Only PROCESSING TOOLKIT INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing Commercial Feeds Maps & Images Feedback Loop

36 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C

37 ® Copyright © OSS Inc ICMAP + NSA(P) = IC 2 The Processing Advantage 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE

38 ® Copyright © OSS Inc OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex

39 ® Copyright © OSS Inc New Rules of the Game I Informing Policy, not Collecting Secrets Global Coverage beats Hard Targets Translation in 28+ Languages Gets Serious Two Levels Down (Sub-State Intelligence) Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental Processing beats Collection for Dollars Geospatial and Time Tagging Mandatory

40 ® Copyright © OSS Inc New Rules of the Game II Global OSINT Benchmarking Finally Done Counterintelligence Across the Board Cross-Fertilization (Human & Technical) Decentralized Data Base (NGO, Private) Value = Content + Context + Speed Gap-Driven Collection instead of Priorities Needs-Driven Production vice Capabilities

41 ® Copyright © OSS Inc New Rules of the Game III Strategic Intelligence Matters More Budget Intelligence is Mandatory Public Intelligence Impact Public Policy Analysts as Managers New Measures of Merit Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing Rules Clearances Matter Less than Knowledge

42 ® Copyright © OSS Inc Recommendations SAG Budget Analysis--cross-walk threat/$ SAG Skunkworks--integrated experiments SAG Solutions--cost out now and future SAG Mentors--history, outreach, memory SAG IG--document shortfalls in collection, processing, management, and clients SAG PR--publish unclassified reports

43 ® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….


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