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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): The Way Ahead Presented to the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) Robert David Steele (Vivas) 22 November 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): The Way Ahead Presented to the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) Robert David Steele (Vivas) 22 November 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): The Way Ahead Presented to the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) Robert David Steele (Vivas) 22 November 2006

2 Plan of the Brief Global RealityContext for Intelligence Strategic Failure of Secret Intelligence Status of OSINT Today What You Can Do Now to Improve Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O) Where We Need to Go as a Nation GO NAVY: 450-Ship Navy, Peace from the Sea

3 GLOBAL REALITY

4 Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Conflict Facts for LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

5 Ethnic Fault Lines Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

6 Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution

7 Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

8 Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat

9 Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or 1,000 Potential George Kennans or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or One day of war over water (or oil)

10 Were in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making. America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.

11 Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. They can do this forever. Any Questions? DoD Focus GWOT

12 Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip.

13 Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Can't Fix Stupid! Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards From left : Larry the Cable Guy, Bill Engvall, Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White.Larry the Cable GuyBill EngvallJeff FoxworthyRon White

14 STRATEGIC FAILURE OF NATIONAL SECRET INTELLIGENCE

15 DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

16 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

17 Threat #1: Poverty 95% Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99% Threat #3: Environmental Degradation90% Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75% Threat #5 Civil War 80% Threat #6: Genocide95% Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95% Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75% Threat #9: Terrorism 80% Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80% Average Importance of OSINT 86% Threats vs. Sources

18 Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards

19 HUMINTSIGINTIMINTMASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost80% of value 95% of cost20% of value Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!

20 Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

21 Policy-Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power Too much of: Military heavy metal Secret satellites Not enough of: Humans on ground Human expert analysis Technical processing State & local intelligence Public health, water, etc. The real budget is the real policy. Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer dollar is to be spent wisely.

22 Policy-Intelligence Failure Public is Neither Engaged Nor Informed Why This Matters Homeland security--A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. (Thomas Jefferson) Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral. World War III Players Bacteria Nations GangsCitizens Inc.

23 STATUS OF OSINT TODAY

24 OSINT Matters I "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country- -the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.

25 Whats on the other side of the hill? All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you dont know by what you do; thats what I called guessing what was at the other side of the hill. Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884) OSINT Matters II

26 Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies OSINT Matters III This is what got General Schoomakers attention in 1997.

27 Brief History of OSINT Diplomats diminished FBIS in WW II FBIS going, going…. FRD on the margin ER&A cut, cut, cut We do secrets On your own time… Use the Internet

28 USMC Intelligence Experience 1988 MCIC start-up $10M on DODIIS Learned 90% raw info –Not secret –Not online –Not in English –Not available from DC No DoD focal point No knowledge base

29 US IC Response HPSCI Forced the Issue in 1992 FBIS claimed the turf and promptly blew it COSPO created, DIA led & screwed it up Markowitz tried hard, Dempsey blocked NFIP line for years Tenet June 1997 refused Global Coverage recommendation of $1.5M ($10M/year per 150 lower tier targets) 2005 DNI appoints ADDNI/OS, never heard from again….

30 Meanwhile… Steve Emerson got it right on jihad within the US 1996 Yossef Bodansky got it right on BLs declaration of war 1997 Pete Schoomaker established SOCOM OSINT 2005 Col Vince Stewart USMC does super job for USDI, they offer SOCOM Executive Agency, declined

31 DoD OSINT Today OSD POC Back to FMF DIA lip-service to OSINT No DoD Doctrine (Army contractor wrote garbage) No DoD Program, Budget, or TO&E Varied parties spending around $25M in complete disorder & mostly on data mining SOCOM & CENTCOM good but limited funding STRATCOM wasting $65M on 36 US on-site butts PACOM destroyed VIC, SOUTHCOM 2 bodies… FSMO tries when not diverting funds to MILCON

32 Data Mining is not Data Capture Spending $250M on data mining, and less than $10M on open source data capture, is not cool. 80% of what we need is not available to FBIS or anyone else as we are now unled, un- funded, and untrained. Forget about the letter, which requires reading the language, Ive got the stamp…so pretty!

33 Meanwhile… SecDef quotes Bin Laden training manual as saying Al Qaeda gets 80% of its intelligence from OSINT but… Ramps up OPSEC (good) but does not establish DoD OSINT

34 ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINTOSS CEO View of OSINT OSINT HumintSigint MasintImint FI Humint SigintImint Masint Osint OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.

35 WHAT YOU CAN DO TO IMPROVE ON YOUR OWN

36 See especially the Context & Practice sections See the briefings, especially New Rules See especially the Training section (this is Word table, can sort by columns, search) Believe it or not, CIA & DIA and the Services have fought me on this since 1988.

37

38 New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

39 Focus of Global Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret

40 OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

41 Internet Competency Now a serious source All-source means all sources--the Internet is now a major source Search engines vary. Find images and maps. Find experts and groups. Limit to 1-hour efforts. Need an Internet specialist on call.

42 Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet Google rapidly displacing, but still need foreign language monitoring that OSC/FBIS simply will not do for the military. Need a specialist. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, 268 words. Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142 words.

43 Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, niche references. Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability. Unique and useful.

44 Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations. Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.

45 Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index Use OSS methodology $500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic Then you call them...

46 Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools Geospatial tools Structured analysis and detection tools Multi-media publication and presentation tools

47 Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance Russian military maps of Third World vital Post-processing support from private sector Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context Such as plotting ships on Google Earth….

48 Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value CIA University trying Moving away from cutting and pasting Moving away from hard-copy files Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data Still not there.

49 Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure Also saves money Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager

50 INTELLIGENCE & INFORMATION OPERATIONS (I2O)

51 7 th Generation Warfare First GenerationLow TechAttrition Second GenerationRelatively Higher TechAttrition and/or Maneuver Third GenerationFrom Hard to Soft Power From Force to Brain Power Fourth GenerationNon-State ThreatsAsymmetry Fifth GenerationInformation and High-Tech Knowledge & Technology & Organization Sixth GenerationMilitary-Technical Revolution Bio-Informational Seventh GenerationBelief Systems & Global Accountability All Information, All Languages, All the Time

52 GRAND STRATEGY: Understanding Ways, Means, and Ends

53 Reference –IOP 07 Portal Page –Link dated 17 Nov 06: I2O Draft 3.4 –Includes table for monitoring & predicting revolution, levels of analysis figure

54 WHERE WE NEED TO GO AS A NATION

55 New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance 45% 20% 20% 15% 248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthPeace Navy

56 Modern Presidential Leadership PresidentCongressJudiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

57 Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors Strategic Council Leadership Retreats Global Reserve Special Projects Associate Directors Response Center Public Liaison Civilian Reserve Non-State Actors

58 GO NAVY

59 6 Slides -- Global, local, OOTW -- Navy Message: Must be able to put force on target within 24, 48 hours; must do sustained littoral ops in multiple languages; and instream Humanitarian Assistance. 450-Ship Navy

60 Global Reach, Local Service Must be able to put air-ground team anywhere –24 hrs: Platoon/Cobra –48 hrs: Company/Harrier –72 hrs: BLT Swarm –7 days: MAGTF (-) Increase Littoral capabilities to 31% Create Humanitarian Assistance Fleet

61 Big Decks Fence subs at 15 ballistic & 50 attack Fence carriers at 12 but dedicate four to littoral/VSTOL ops Restore 2 battleships for low-cost naval gunfire support and big stick diplomacy

62 Heavy Duty Platforms Protect cruisers/ destroyers. Create 25 new Expediters, air-capable SPRUANCEs. Increase WHIDBEY ISLAND class LHDs Create 25 three-ship squadrons of brown water fire, air, troop interdiction platforms

63 Mine Warfare & Port Security Distribute helo-borne anti- mine capabilities throughout the fleet Devise comprehensive new port security concepts with USCG Consider Port of Houston as a CIO-Intel testbed for global information aspects.

64 Humanitarian Fleet 16 roll-on, roll-off bulk carriers with integrated engineering, police, and hospital spaces--half ready to do instream ops only Protect two large hospital ships, create five small hospital ships

65 Global Reach, Local Service Blue Water Carrier Brown Water Carrier Big Amphibs Small Amphibs Patrol Squadron Humanitarian Fleet

66 References –Has the article on the 450-ship Navy (EE21) –Has MCIA model for expeditionary analysis –Has 67+2 country summaries of WF factors –Over 600 speakers, 15 years, 30,000 pages –Watch the portal pages, updated daily –Use the Public Daily Brief, check the weekly summaries of 30 factors, bookmark the threat, policy, and challenger forecasts and cummulative weeky summaries for each factor.

67 Will speak for sushi. Tell others.


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