Presentation on theme: "® Open Source Information: Heads Up for the COCOMs Robert David Steele Vivas Founder, USMC Intelligence Command Founder, OSS Network."— Presentation transcript:
® Open Source Information: Heads Up for the COCOMs Robert David Steele Vivas Founder, USMC Intelligence Command Founder, OSS Network
® Plan for the Brief Big PictureStrategic Transformation IC ReformWhere OSINT Fits OSINT 101Beyond Internet Lite COCOM OSINT JROCAcross the Js COCOM OSINT Oversight COCOM OSINT Budget Bottom Line: Dont Ask, Dont Get
® Big Picture Strategic Transformation Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004) Defense Science Board Report: Transition to and from Hostilities (December 2004) Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers Multi-National Information Sharing UN Joint Military Analysis Centres
® Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004) Must understand global public opinion Need national center for coordinating USG Effort should be centered at State Must redefine public diplomacy and affairs Must elevate ranks of those so engaged USD Policy should be DoD focal point JCS & COCOMs must align all plans & ops
® Defense Science Board Report: Transitions (December 2004) Contingency planning is a full-time mission Joint inter-agency task forces are needed COCOMs must focus on S&R mission Must integrate NGOs, other civil players Cultural knowledge is equal of combat skill COCOMs must have I&I campaign plans Open sources can provide much of the…. S&R: Stabilization & Reconstruction I&I: Information & Intelligence
® Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers Sharing Starts with Open Sources USSOCOM has built the first onecan copy. SOCOM concludes there is a mission essential need to exploit open source information for operational use. Bottom line: OSINT can increase our capability by 5X to 10X. SOCOM has asked forand gotten$10M a year, beginning this year, for generic OSINT to support all missions areas, not just intelligence.
® Multi-National Networks US Cannot Do It Alone Africa has an Early Warning & Open Source Information Sharing Network Caribbean is developing a law enforcement information sharing network NATO and Partnership for Peace have created three OSINT reference documents UN is creating regional JMAC, 1 st in Africa JMAC: Joint Military Analysis Centres
® IC Reform Where OSINT Fits Collection Gaps, Context, & Cover Processing Baseline and Linkages Analytic Foundation, Warning, Framework Management Benefits –Lowers over-all cost of meeting all needs –Reduces time needed to satisfy many needs –Increases requirements that can be satisfied –Dramatically increases what can be known
® Reinforces Global Collection Open Sources – 5X to 10X Improved Coverage DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process most hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO
® Can Baseline All-Source Processing 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist
® TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW Analytic Change #1: Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
® The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Open source information is more complex than secrets… Analytic Change #2: The Really Big Gap
® Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere Analytic Change #3: Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
® OSINT 101 Beyond Internet Lite OSINT is 24/7, off-line, complex, costs $$ OSINT includes history back 200 years OSINT demands harnessing seven tribes OSINT demands structured multinational collection, processing, and analytic sharing OSINT integrates sources, softwares, services OSINT enhances analysis & management OSINT is key lever for addressing asymmetric threats
® OSINT Matters Clausewitz Says So… "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country-- the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know, or for answering questions in the most expensive, risky, time-consuming manner possible.
® Open Source Data Open Source Information Open Source Intelligence Validated Open Source Intelligence Only the in-house analyst can do this. Definitions OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should controlit must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticiansas well as all-source intelligence analysts.
® …nothing more than a collection of news clippings. …the Internet. …a substitute for spies and satellites. WHAT OSINT IS NOT...
® New Craft of Intelligence 90% of what we need to know is not SEOK I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation SEOK: Secret, in English, Online, or Known to Anyone in the IC.
® Commercial Online Books & Journals Conferences & Dissertations Maps & Commercial Imagery Internet Telephone Surveys Gray Literature Complex Human & IT Services OSINT Universe Open Sources in 29+ Languages
® Internet Competency No longer a toy--now a serious source All-source means all sources--the Internet is now a major source Search engines vary. Find images and maps. Find experts and groups. Limit to 1-hour efforts. Need an Internet specialist on call.
® Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet Factiva.com DIALOG European Services Value-added is enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval Need a specialist. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, 268 words. Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142 words.
® Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, niche references. Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability. Unique and useful.
® Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations. Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.
® Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index Use OSS methodology $500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic Then you call them...
® Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools Geospatial tools Structured analysis and detection tools Multi-media publication and presentation tools
® Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance Russian military maps of Third World vital Post-processing support from private sector Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context
® Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value CIA University breaking new ground Moving away from cutting and pasting Moving away from hard-copy files Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data
® Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure Also saves money Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
® Summary: Four Levels of War, All the Js Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies J-2 J-3 J-4 J-5 J-6 J-7 J-N
® Burundi Exercise 1995 This is what got Lee Hamilton to recommend OSA on page 413 of 9-11 Commission Report. Top 10 Academics (Institute of Scientific Information) Top 10 Journalists (LEXIS-NEXIS) 20 Pol-Mil Summaries (Oxford Analytica UK) Tribal Orders of Battle (Janes Information Group) Russian Military Maps (East View Cartographic) Commercial Imagery (SPOT Imagetoday many vendors) Six Phone Calls, Overnight Response. Need to know who knows….
®® NATO OSINT
® Seven Intelligence Tribes: The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans
® State of the Tribes Today National 50% Military 40% Business 30% Academic 30% Law Enforcement 20% NGO-Media 20% Religious 20% We have much to do.
® OSINT Benefits Statement Every Single COCOM Needs to Focus Now… Why Focus on OSINT? –Non-state, lower tier –Complex emergencies –Limited secret coverage –Information explosion Immediate Benefits –Insurance policy –Improves coverage –Improves coalitions Program Elements –Digital History Project –NGO Data Network –Generic Training Teams –Generic Analytic Tools –Generic Standards –University of the Republic –Virtual Task Forces –Regional OSINT Centers
® Regional Intelligence Center Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Covert Action Thailand
® COCOM OPG VPN Getting a grip on every topic, 24/7 Weekly report Distance learning Virtual library Expert Forum Shared directory Shared calendar Shared budget Shared plot (map)
® World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Private Sector Citizens Mother Earth Water-Air-Green
® Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries
® Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR
® COCOM OSINT JROC IMHO, We Have Not Really Done JROC Right… J-2: Warning, Historical, Ethnic, Basic J-3: OOTW, Coalition, S&T, NGOs, PMIs J-4: Maps, Geospatial, Fuel, Water, Etc. J-5: Mid & long-term plans support J-6: Telecommunications, IO, PSYOP? J-7: Joint & Coalition Inter-operability J-N: RW-RT Simulation Feeds, Etc. JROC: Joint Required Operational Capability
® COCOM OSINT Oversight Direct Report to DCC, All Js Oversee Congressman Simmons has a view on this. J-3 manages external liaison via Civil Affairs J-2 manages internal validation & integration –BUT may not interdict direct support to other Js –BUT may not control nor reduce OSINT budget COCOM OSINT is a direct report to DCC All Js serve on oversight board.
® COCOM OSINT Context No One Else Is Going To Meet Your Needs Unrealistic to expect national to collect, process, or analyze open sources for military 90% of what we need comes from people that do not want to meet or share with intelligence Cannot predict the futurecan only be alert to all weak signals in all languages all the time Next four slides address generic capability.
® COCOM OSINT People 25 PeopleSix at HQS, 6 Three-Person Teams Double-hat as inter-agency collaboration Six people at Headquarters –Branch Chief/Collection Manager, Deputy Branch Chief & All-Source Analyst, Master Librarian, Action Officer, Contracts Officer, Geospatial Specialist, Online Search Specialist Six three-person information A teams –Section Chief, Translator/Analyst, Webmaster
® COCOM OSINT Outposts There Is No Substitute for Being There CENTCOMEUCOMPACOMSOUTHCOM AlamatyAccra/DakarHanoiBogotá BeijingCairoJakartaCaracas IstanbulMadridKuala LumpurMontevideo MoscowParisKyotoTrinidad New DelhiPretoriaManilaPanama StockholmRomeSingaporeRio de Janeiro NOTE: DoD Teams form integrated mesh, e.g. Beijing team serves all COCOMs, for example, telecomms for PACOM, trade for SOUTHCOM.
® COCOM OSINT Budget $10M Buys Just Enough, Just in Time $3.75M for 25 trained, dedicated OSOs $1.00M for information technology & travel $1.50M for information sharing grants $1.00M for Digital Marshall Plan across AOR $2.00M for Vendor OSINT acquisition $0.50M for Vendor digitization/visualization $0.25M for Training across the AOR
® COCOM OSINT Sharing Taking Intelink to a New Level Open Source Information System-External –OSIS-X –Extends Intelink protocols, look & feel, to all –Open to NGOs, PMIs, coalition partners, etc. –Harvested every five minutes back to NIPR+ –Leverages SOCOM hub for processing –Leverages Tampa as location of two COCOMs, offer up space for DoD-wide help desk
® Dont Ask, Dont Get USDI is playing cards close to its chest. Defense Open Source Agency is possible. $125M IOC, $2B FOC, is a do-able do. Congressman Simmons owns OSINT. Congressman Davis is now interested. This is not going away. Dont ask, dont get.