Presentation on theme: "1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc."— Presentation transcript:
1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.
2 PRESENTATION PLAN IntroIntro Overview of Open Sources, Software, and Services CMCM AnalysisAnalysis CoalitionCoalition OperationsOperations Over view SvcsSWSrc IntInt CellCell OverviewOverview ConclusionsConclusions
3 DEFINITIONS DATA: raw report, image or broadcast INFORMATION: collated data of generic interest and usually widely disseminated INTELLIGENCE: concisely tailored answer reflecting a deliberate process of discovery, discrimination, distillation, and delivery of data precisely suited to need
4 TIMELINE LONG AGO: Legal travelers WWII AND COLD WAR: Special Librarians Association (14,000 members) External Research & Analysis Funds Lloyds and Janes BBC & FBIS Churchill adept at correspondence LAST SEVEN YEARS: OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc. (4000 trained) Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (6000 members) Community Open Source Program Office (USA) Eighteen governments doing one thing or another NEXT SEVEN YEARS: A Very Hard Road
5 OSINT AND THE IC The Intelligence Community has to get used to the fact that it no longer controls most of the information. The Honorable Richard Kerr Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (USA)
6 OSINT DEFINED From Open World –Open sources –Open software –Open services From Closed World –Requirements analysis –Collection Management –Source Validation –Source Fusion –Compelling Presentation
7 NOT WHAT OSINT IS NOT I …nothing more than a collection of news clippings. …the Internet. …a substitute for spies and satellites.
9 THE ALL-SOURCE SOLUTION OSINT AnswersAll-Source AnalysisClassified Collection SIGINTHUMINT IMINTMASINT Commercial Geospacial Targeting Support Subject-Matter Experts Broadcast Monitoring
10 NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP Available Information Actionable Intelligence INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME GAP BETWEEN WHAT YOU CAN KNOW AND WHAT YOU CAN USE
11 INFORMATION ARCHIPELAGO Schools & Universities Business Information Intelligence Defense Mass & Niche Media Information Brokers & Private Investigators Government
12 MORE COMPLEX THREAT PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR
13 FAILING OVERALL OBVIOUS MILITARY WE DO WELL ENOUGH CRIME AND TERROR WE DO BADLY CIVILIAN CYBERSPACE WE HAVE DECADES TO GO A-/B+ SIQ C-/D+ D-/F+ IDEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT WE DONT DO AT ALL
14 LEVELS OF ANALYSIS STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, & Finance Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere
15 FAILING IN DETAIL Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere F- D- C- B- STRATEGIC: What to Build OPERATIONAL: When to Fight TACTICAL: What to Use TECHNICAL: How to Use It
16 MIXED REPORTS Allen Dulles (DCI): 80% Gordon Oehler (D/NPC): 80% Ward Elcock (DG/CSIS): 80% Joe Markowitz (D/COSPO): 40%
17 COSTS OF SECRECY CLIENT ACCESS: too much, too late, too secret--doesnt get due attention TRANSACTION COSTS: X OSINT OPPORTUNITY COSTS: classification of system deficiencies gives original contractors a lifetime system monopoly FUNCTIONAL COSTS: non- interoperability, operational disconnects
18 PURPOSES OF SECRECY Everybody whos a real practitioner, and Im sure youre not all naïve in this regard, realizes that there are two uses to which security classification is put: the legitimate desire to protect secrets, and protection of bureaucratic turf. As a practitioner of the real world, its about 90 bureaucratic turf; 10 legitimate secrets as far as Im concerned. Rodney B. McDaniel Executive Secretary, National Security Council Senior Director, (White House) Crisis Management Center
19 VALUATION METRICS I TIMING: Is it good enough NOW CONTEXT: Is it good enough over-all, that is, does it provide a robust contextual understanding or is it a tid-bit in isolation? CONTENT: Is it good enough to improve the decision at hand? Can I share it?
20 VALUATION METRICS II RETURN ON EXPOSURE: Does this information, openly available, attract other information that is equally useful? (10X) INCLUSIVENESS: Does this information, openly available, reach those who have a need to know that would not otherwise have been included in distribution? (20%)
21 OSINT AND REALITY I If it is 85% accurate, on time, and I can share it, this is a lot more useful to me than a compendium of Top Secret Codeword material that is too much, too late, and needs a safe and three security officers to move it around the battlefield. U.S. Navy Wing Commander Leader of First Flight Over Baghdad Speaking at TIG-92, Naval War College
22 OSINT AND REALITY II Post-Cold War political-military issues tend to arise in lower Tier (per PDD-35) nations where U.S. classified capabilities are least applicable or largely unavailable. Warning of these largely Third World crises has not required classified collection. Approach and resolution has required increased reliance on international organizations and non-traditional coalition partners with whom information must be shared and who are not cleared for sensitive sources & methods.
23 THE BURUNDI EXERCISE COMMISSION ON INTELLIGENCE (USA) ONE MAN, ONE ROLODEX, ONE DAY –Flag/CEO POL-MIL Briefs (Oxford Analytica) –Journalists on the Ground (LEXIS-NEXIS) –World-class academics (Inst. Sci. Info.) –1:100,000 combat charts (Soviets via Eastview) –Tribal OOB and historical summary (Janes) –1:50,000 combat imagery (SPOT Image)
25 CURRENT AWARENESS BASICS DOW JONES INTERACTIVE (Media, BBC) DIALOG (Periodicals, Books, Conferences) BRITISH LIBRARY (Conference Papers) World News Connection (FBIS) COPERNICUS (Internet Profiles) LEXIS-NEXIS (Legal/Criminal/Personality)
26 GEOSPACIAL SHORTFALLS AFRICA ASIA & PACIFICEUROPE & MEDWESTERN HEMISPHERE Algeria BangladeshGreeceArgentina Angola ChinaTurkeyBolivia Djibouti Indonesia Brazil Ethiopia KazakhstanColombia Ghana KyrgystanEcuador Kenya MalaysiaGrenada Liberia MyanmarJamaica Madagascar New CaledoniaMexico Mozambique Papua New GuineaParaguay Namibia RussiaPeru South Africa Sri LankaSuriname Sudan Viet-NamUraguay Uganda 4 Key Island GroupsVenezuela For each of the above countries, less than 25% available in 1:50,000 form, generally old data.
27 MAPS & CHARTS Formerly classified Soviet maps Some 1:50, global 1:100 coverage Contour lines you can hide in…. Digital and printed, very low cost Topographic, Geological, Nautical Gazetteers, Indexes, Translations They got the cable car right….
28 COMMERCIAL IMAGERY 10 meter imagery is 1:50,000 level and can provide contour lines. Synoptic coverage and two-day revisit available globally on 24 hours notice. Meets critical needs for creating maps, precision targeting, and mission rehearsal.
33 HUMAN-ORIENTED SERVICES Human Collection Specialists –Telephone Surveys –Private Investigations –Market Research Human Processing Specialists –Commercial Imagery, Maps, Visualization –Data Warehouses, Multi-Source Processing Human Citation Analysis: World Mind Map
34 INFORMATION BROKERS Highly recommended Local knowledge Indexed by location, subject-matter, and foreign language skill
36 CITATION ANALYSIS KOBAYASHI Y 87 TILAK BV 92 MASTRAGO A 63
37 OSINT ISSUE AREAS Operational Security –Understand requirement in all-source context –Conceal/protect client identity and interest Copyright Compliance –Get used to it Foreign Language Coverage Source Validation –OSINT assures authority, currency, confidence
38 OSINT RULES OF THE GAME 80% of what you need is not online –50% of that has not been published at all 60% of what you need is not in English 90% of the maps you need do not exist –but commercial imagery can address overnight 80% of the information is in private sector –must leverage distributed private knowledge
39 INTERNET REALITY I (BAD) COSPO (USA) Survey: roughly 1% of Internet is real content, roughly 50 great sites, 500 good sites--the rest is pornography and opinion Internet is a cream puff in comparison to the kind of rich content/value added represented by commercial online services with editors/filters MCIA/Other Experience: Internet devours analysts--they get lost or they get addicted, either way their productivity is cut in half
40 INTERNET REALITY II (GOOD) Internet is exquisite as a collaborative work environment, and for information sharing Internet has its uses (see OSINT HANDBOOK) –Indications & Warning (Tiananmen, Coup vs Gorby) –Cultural Context (Bosnia, Islam, Indians in Mexico) –Basic Research (card catalogues, lists, web sites) –Science & Technology Collection (surprisingly good) –Spotting & Assessment (trolling for potential agents) Internet will explode over time--early days yet
41 PROCESS OSINT IS A PROCESS DISCOVERY--Know Who Knows –Just enough from just the right mix of sources DISCRIMINATION--Know Whats What –Rapid source evaluation and data validation DISTILLATION--Know Whats Hot –Answer the right question, in the right way DELIVERY--Know Whos Who –Its not delivered until right person understands
42 INTEGRATED OSINT CONCEPT QA DIRECT ACCESS: OSS-SRA TOOLKIT WITH TAILORED SOURCE ACCESS MEDIATED ACCESS: OSS EXPERTS WITH PROPRIETARY SOURCE METADATABASE Internet Stream Offline Stream (Gray Literature) Human Experts On Demand PROCESSING TOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS PRODUCTION TOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing Commercial Online Feeds Commercial Maps & Images FEEDBACK LOOP CLIENT OSS
43 COLLECTION MANAGEMENT I TIP-OFF –Wires, Janes help more than they know TARGETING/CONSERVATION –Narrow the field for clandestine/covert assets CONTEXT/VALIDATION –Ideal for double-checking human assets/story COVER –Protects classified sources & methods
44 COLLECTION MANAGEMENT II Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go. The problem with spies is they only know secrets. HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
45 CM III/ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS I NEW DIAMOND PARADIGM OLD LINEAR PARADIGM Customer Analyst Collector Source Customer AnalystCollector Source ACME OF SKILL IN 21ST CENTURY: Putting Customer with a Question in Touch with Source Able to Create New Tailored Knowledge in Real Time
46 ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS II All-Source Analysts Role Must Change –Manage Network of Overt Sources –Manage Resources to Fund Overt Sources –Manage Classified Collection in Context –Manage Clients Incoming Open Sources –Manage Clients Needs for Open Intelligence Myopic Introverts Need Not Apply….
47 ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS III STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, & Finance Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere
48 THREAT ANALYSIS LIBYAN TANK EXAMPLE (1992) –Technical Level (Lethality): VERY HIGH –Tactical Level (Reliability): LOW –Operational Level (Availability): MEDIUM –Strategic Level (Sustainability): LOW We can no longer afford worst-case systems acquisition (and such systems are largely useless against 3 of 4 modern day threats)
49 STRATEGIC GENERALIZATIONS Port utilityHalf Cross-country mobilityZip Bridge loading limitations30T Intervisibility<900M Aviation temperature averagesHOT Naval gunfire challenges5 dies Language requirementsHeavy
50 COALITION OPERATIONS I … the concept of UN intelligence promises to turn traditional principles on their heads. Intelligence will have to be based on information that is collected primarily by overt means, that is by methods that do not threaten the target state or group and do not compromise the integrity or impartiality of the UN. Hugh Smith as cited by Sir David Ramsbotham
51 COALITION OPERATIONS II Assure minimal common appreciation of situation including terrain and civil factors Enable information-sharing at unclassified level across national and civil-military lines Significantly enhance information integration within own forces Protect sensitive sources & methods
52 COALITION OPERATIONS III JOINT OSINT CELL
53 COALITION OPERATIONS IV CINC G-2G-3 PSYOP POLAD PAO CIVIL AFFAIRS PROVOST MARSHAL COMBAT ENGINEERS OSINT NET
54 OSINT CELL I Functions should include –Current awareness briefs/tip-off bundles –Rapid response reference desk –Primary research –Strategic forecasting OSINT is a starting point for both the intelligence producer and the consumer
55 OSINT CELL II MEXICAN INSURGENCY Wednesday, 3 September 1997 Mass Media Stories (Commercial Online Services, Edited Content) 01 CHIAPAS INSURGENCY CONTINUES Associated Press 1500 Words, The Chiapas Insurgency continues to escalate, with 13 Mexican soldiers 02 CHIAPAS LEADERSHIP VISITS GENEVA Los Angeles Times 1631 Words, The leaders of the Chiapas insurgencies 03 YUKATAN KIDNAPPING OF U.S. BUSINESSMAN El Tiempo, 764 Words, Ayer en el sur de Mejico, un empresario Norte Americano fue sequestrado por Journals (Peer Reviewed Journals, Mostly Off-Line) 01MOST RELEVANT NEW ARTICLE A Comparative Approach To Latin American Revolutions (Wickham-Crowley, INT J COMP, July 19 02MOST HEAVILY CITED RECENT ARTICLE Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Chiapas, Mexico (Howard, Philip and 03MOST RELEVANT NEW FOREIGN LANGUAGE ARTICLE Tierra, Pobreza, y Los Indios: La Situacion Revolucionaria en Mejico (Gonzalez, Juan Fernando, Internet (Caution: Content Not Subject To Editorial Review) 01NEW SITE MATCHING PROFILE, EZLN 02INCREASED ACTIVITY, OVER 1000 HITS YESTERDAY 03New Major Document, ChiapasEl Pueblo Adelante! (14 pages) Click for full text Number of lines per entry can be changed EXPAND Click for full list in section Rough translation optional Abstract may be online; copy can be ordered via . Documents can be provided; sites are pointers for client to access.
56 OSINT CELL III REQUIREMENTS OFFICER/ COLLECTION MANAGER INTERNET SPECIALIST COMMERCIAL ONLINE SPECIALIST PRIMARY RESEARCH SPECIALIST EXTERNAL SERVICES SPECIALIST EDITOR/ANALYST PRESENTATION MANAGER
57 OSINT CELL IV Must be national in approach –Centralized coordination –Decentralized processing Problems will persist –Security, funding, cultural barriers –Training & education vacuum –Concepts & doctrine vacuum –Foreign language inadequacies
58 OSINT BUDGET (GENERIC) Bottom line: 1% of OPS or 5% of INTEL budget Recommended national defense OSINT allocations (%): Commercial Imagery Acquisition.166/Yr JOINT VISION Ground Stations.033/YrUN/NATO/Regional OSINT Architecture.066/Yr Joint, Service, and Command OSINT Cells.100/YrDefense OSINT Training Program.016/YrDefense Internet Seeding Program.016/YrOSINT Analysts at Embassies with Funds.033/YrOSINT Direct Support Program.550/YrContingency/Crisis OSINT Surge Program.016/Yr
59 OSINT BUDGET (USA) Bottom line: 1% of OPS or 5% of INTEL budget Recommended national defense OSINT allocations (USA)*: Commercial Imagery Acquisition250M/Yr JOINT VISION Ground Stations UN/NATO/Regional OSINT Architecture 100M/Yr Joint, Service, and Command OSINT Cells Defense OSINT Training Program 25M/YrDefense Internet Seeding Program 25M/YrOSINT Analysts at Embassies with Funds Direct Support Program 825M/Yr Contingency/Crisis OSINT Surge Program25M/Yr * Supports 50,000 SI/TK analysts and 250,000 action officers
60 CONCLUSION MILITARY CANT DO IT ALONE –Need Resources from Business, Academia –Need to Integrate Needs of Policy, Police MILITARY CAN TAKE THE LEAD –Has the Discipline and Command Structure –Has the Budget Flexibility –Has Best Trans-National Relationships
61 IO BIG PICTURE All-Source Intelligence (Spies, Satellites, and Secrets) Information Warfare Information Peacekeeping INFORMATION OPERATIONS Dont send a bullet where a byte will do…. OSINT as Input OSINT as Output
62 VIRTUAL GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE Global Distributed Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Government Knowledge Intelligence Community 1B10B100B1 TRILLION
63 STRIKING A NEW BALANCE TECHNICAL $$ HUMINT $$ OSINT $$ LIFERS MID-CAREER HIRES DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS IC MANNINGIC DOLLARS UNCLASSIFIED SECRET TS IC PRODUCTION
64 Four Threats, Four Defense Forms HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL MILITARY WAR SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG WARFARE IW/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES PROLIFERATION/ MIGRATION JIHAD/ GREENPEACE TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
65 INFORMATION STRATEGY Military must work with rest of Nation Four elements of information strategy: 1) Connectivity 2) Content access & validation nodes 3) Coordination of standards & investments 4) C4 security across the board OSINT, at root, is about creating a smart nation within which smart organizations can thrive and be effective at their mission--OSINT is the enabling net. OSINT impacts national security and competitiveness.
66 OSINT BUILDING BLOCKS Policy Intelligence Military Intelligence Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence Minuteman Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education Robert Steele, OSS NOTICES 31 May 1995, with Alvin Toffler; the concept of Intelligence Minuteman was developed by Alessandro Politi at OSS 92, and independently put forth and enhanced by Anthony Fedanzo in OSS READER.
67 NEW GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS DOCTRINE Information Driven Government Operations National Economic Council Diplomatic and Other Information Peacekeeping Operations National Electronic Security & Counterintelligence Program Civilian Leaders Conventional Military (High-Tech) Special Operations (Low-Tech) Information Warfare Corps Transnational and Domestic Law Enforcement Operations
68 REFERENCES I Open Source Intelligence: Private Sector Capabilities to Support DoD Policy, Acquisitions, and Operations" (Defense Daily Network, 4 March 1998) at Open Source Intelligence: HANDBOOK (Joint Military Intelligence Training Center, October 1996) at Open Source Intelligence: READER (OSS Inc., 1997) at Concept Paper: Creating a Bare Bones Capability for Open Source Support to Defense Intelligence Analysts (OSS Inc., 18 August 1997) at Open Source Intelligence: An Examination of Its Exploitation in the Defense Intelligence Community (Major Robert M. Simmons, Joint Military Intelligence College, August 1995)
69 REFERENCES II Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Avoidance Through Information Peacekeeping, Proceedings of the Virtual Diplomacy Conference of 1-2 April 1997 in Washington, D.C. (U.S. Institute of Peace) at Intelligence and Counterintelligence: Proposed Program for the 21 st Century (OSS Inc., 14 April 1997 at ) Information Peacekeeping: The Purest Form of War in CYBERWAR: Myths, Mysteries, and Realities (AFCEA, 1998) at Other references including self-study OSINT lessons at.
70 OSINT TRAINING PacInfo 98 OSINT and Complex Peacekeeping Ops 7-9 December 1998, Monterey, California EuroIntel 99 OSINT and Terrorism, Crime, & Proliferation 9-11 March 1999, The Hague, The Netherlands OSS 99 OSINT Sources & Methods May 1999, Washington, D.C.
71 A LITTLE FUN *Sheep Lie… the official motto (and button) of CIA Mid-Career Course 101 Baaaa *