1. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Are We Headed Into Another Maunder Minimum? And If That Happens, What Does That Mean For Propagation? Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA k9la@arrl.net (e-mail) http://k9la.us (web site)

2. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Thanks to WWROF http://wwrof.org World Wide Radio Operators Foundation “Dedicated to improving the skills pf amateur radio operators around the world, utilizing education, competition, advancement of technology and scientific research, promoting international friendship and goodwill, and preparing them to better serve society in times of communication need.”

3. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Topics Quick Update on Cycle 24 Quick Update on Cycle 24 What is a Grand Solar Minimum? What is a Grand Solar Minimum? Quick review of the Maunder Minimum Quick review of the Maunder Minimum Review of solar parameters pertaining to Grand Solar Minimums and Maunder Minimums Review of solar parameters pertaining to Grand Solar Minimums and Maunder Minimums Propagation during a Grand Solar Minimum Propagation during a Grand Solar Minimum Scenario 1 (VOACAP with zero sunspots)Scenario 1 (VOACAP with zero sunspots) Scenario 2 (deeper look at EUV)Scenario 2 (deeper look at EUV) Summary Summary

4. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Pop Quiz What do the call signs W2XBS and W3XE have in common? The ‘X’ at the beginning of the suffix is a clue

5. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA How Is Cycle 24 Doing? Great propagation on higher bands in late 2011 & late 2013 Great propagation on higher bands in late 2011 & late 2013 High monthly means in fall/winter monthsHigh monthly means in fall/winter months Annual change in the atmosphere’s composition – best for ion production in fall/winter/spring monthsAnnual change in the atmosphere’s composition – best for ion production in fall/winter/spring months Latest activity will extend good propagation to late 2014 Latest activity will extend good propagation to late 2014 First peak in early 2012 Second peak in progress

6. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA In Terms of Sunspots Same trends as 10.7 cm solar flux

7. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA All 24 Solar Cycles 24 data points aren’t a lot, but the cyclic trend suggests we are entering a third period of small solar cycles Average solar cycle magnitude ~ 112 Gleissberg cycle

8. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA What Is A Grand Solar Minimum? A Grand Solar Minimum is a period of at least several solar cycles that are of less-than-average magnitude Dalton? average Recent Grand Solar Minimums

9. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Earlier Grand Solar Minimums At solar min, the Sun’s weak magnetic field allows more cosmic rays (CRs) into the Earth’s atmosphere At solar min, the Sun’s weak magnetic field allows more cosmic rays (CRs) into the Earth’s atmosphere Secondary particles created from collisions Secondary particles created from collisions 10 Be in ice cores, 14 C in tree rings 10 Be in ice cores, 14 C in tree rings Out-of-phase with solar cycle Out-of-phase with solar cycle High 10 Be and 14 C indicates low solar activity High 10 Be and 14 C indicates low solar activity

10. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Maunder Minimum Maunder Minimum had few sunspots Maunder Minimum had few sunspots Recent GSMs had fair amount of sunspots Recent GSMs had fair amount of sunspots We’ve assumed the Maunder Min was an extreme GSM We’ve assumed the Maunder Min was an extreme GSM Maybe it isn’t an extreme GSM – maybe it’s a different processMaybe it isn’t an extreme GSM – maybe it’s a different process

11. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Many Articles on Maunder Min Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2011, Solar Physics Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2011, Solar Physics Created criteria for Maunder-type Min vs Gleissberg cycleCreated criteria for Maunder-type Min vs Gleissberg cycle What we’re seeing is not a Maunder-type MinimumWhat we’re seeing is not a Maunder-type Minimum Svalgaard, 2012, Nobeyama data Svalgaard, 2012, Nobeyama data Maunder Min not due to lack of observationsMaunder Min not due to lack of observations Not a deficit of magnetic flux, but lessening of efficiency of the process that compacts magnetic fields into visible spotsNot a deficit of magnetic flux, but lessening of efficiency of the process that compacts magnetic fields into visible spots May be happening again (see ‘disappearing sunspots’)May be happening again (see ‘disappearing sunspots’) Steinhilber and Beer, 2013, JGR Steinhilber and Beer, 2013, JGR Predict a period of low activity until 2100Predict a period of low activity until 2100 Hathaway, 2013, Huntsville Hamfest Hathaway, 2013, Huntsville Hamfest Cycle 24 smallest in 100 yearsCycle 24 smallest in 100 years Cycle 25 may be smallerCycle 25 may be smaller

12. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Articles – continued McCracken and Beer, 2014, JGR McCracken and Beer, 2014, JGR 2006-2009 CR intensities not as great as prior GSMs2006-2009 CR intensities not as great as prior GSMs Vaquero, et al, 2011, Astrophysical Journal letters Vaquero, et al, 2011, Astrophysical Journal letters Three descending cycles prior to Maunder MinThree descending cycles prior to Maunder Min Giampapa, 2014, Forbes on-line Giampapa, 2014, Forbes on-line Cites hemispheric asymmetry in sunspots, weakening of polar magnetic fields and decline in sunspots’ magnetic field strengthCites hemispheric asymmetry in sunspots, weakening of polar magnetic fields and decline in sunspots’ magnetic field strength Livingston and Penn, 2009, EOS (AGU weekly newsletter) Livingston and Penn, 2009, EOS (AGU weekly newsletter) Sunspots are disappearingSunspots are disappearing Altrock, 2012, AFRL Altrock, 2012, AFRL ‘Rush to the Poles’ (from Fe XIV emission data) slow and intermittent for Cycle 24‘Rush to the Poles’ (from Fe XIV emission data) slow and intermittent for Cycle 24

13. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Maunder Min vs Gleissberg Cycle Maunder-type Minimum Maunder-type Minimum Duration from 20 – 190 yearsDuration from 20 – 190 years Distributed randomly in timeDistributed randomly in time Onset can be abrupt or follow a few decreasing solar cyclesOnset can be abrupt or follow a few decreasing solar cycles Sunspot number extremely lowSunspot number extremely low Galactic CRs highGalactic CRs high Mid-latitude aurora extremely rareMid-latitude aurora extremely rare Gleissberg Cycle Gleissberg Cycle Period of 90-100 yearsPeriod of 90-100 years About eight 11-year solar cycles About eight 11-year solar cycles Maximum sunspot numbers below average, but not zeroMaximum sunspot numbers below average, but not zero Sunspot number returns to nearly same low value at 11- year minimumsSunspot number returns to nearly same low value at 11- year minimums

14. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Low Activity Until 2100 Based on 9400 years of spectral analysis of 10 Be (ice core) and 14 C (tree ring) records Based on 9400 years of spectral analysis of 10 Be (ice core) and 14 C (tree ring) records Assumes the Sun will continue to vary with the same periodicities for the next centuries Assumes the Sun will continue to vary with the same periodicities for the next centuries

15. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Hathaway’s Prediction In his presentation at the 2013 Huntsville Hamfest, Dr. Hathaway said Cycle 25 may be even smaller than Cycle 24 In his presentation at the 2013 Huntsville Hamfest, Dr. Hathaway said Cycle 25 may be even smaller than Cycle 24 This is based on decreasing polar fields This is based on decreasing polar fields See later ‘Polar Magnetic Fields’ slideSee later ‘Polar Magnetic Fields’ slide He prefaced his presentation with the following on his second slide He prefaced his presentation with the following on his second slide “Don’t shoot the messenger!”

16. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA 2006-2009 CR Intensities It would be nice to have an accurate update of this plot It would be nice to have an accurate update of this plot I’m still looking for it! I’m still looking for it! 2000 2200 my extrapolation

17. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Three Descending Cycles Vaquero, Gallego, Usoskin, Kovaltsov reviewed old data and used newly-found data prior to Maunder Min Vaquero, Gallego, Usoskin, Kovaltsov reviewed old data and used newly-found data prior to Maunder Min Their work is in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 2011Their work is in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 2011 They concluded that Cycle -9 was not as high as earlier thought (due to sparse amount of data) They concluded that Cycle -9 was not as high as earlier thought (due to sparse amount of data) Cycle -11 with Rg about 120Cycle -11 with Rg about 120 Cycle -10 with Rg about 35Cycle -10 with Rg about 35 Cycle -9 with Rg about 20 (originally thought to be about 80)Cycle -9 with Rg about 20 (originally thought to be about 80) These three descending cycles preceded the Maunder Minimum These three descending cycles preceded the Maunder Minimum Cycle -11Cycle -10Cycle -9

18. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Three Descending Cycles We’re seeing three descending cycles now – even four! We’re seeing three descending cycles now – even four! Perhaps three descending cycles indicates a Maunder-type Minimum as opposed to Dalton-type minimum Perhaps three descending cycles indicates a Maunder-type Minimum as opposed to Dalton-type minimum Dalton

19. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Hemispheric Asymmetry When the field is about to enter a grand minimum or is leaving a grand minimum, we see more sunspots in one solar hemisphere than the other When the field is about to enter a grand minimum or is leaving a grand minimum, we see more sunspots in one solar hemisphere than the other From Steve Tobias (applied mathematician at the University of Leeds (UK)From Steve Tobias (applied mathematician at the University of Leeds (UK)

20. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Past Hemispheric Asymmetry Lots of asymmetry prior to minimum seen in previous cycles Lots of asymmetry prior to minimum seen in previous cycles But no Maunder Minimum – or even a GSM But no Maunder Minimum – or even a GSM

21. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Closer Look at Cycle 24 Asymmetry

22. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Polar Magnetic Fields Jan 1, 1976 Dec 31, 20143 year intervals The Sun’s polar magnetic fields are much weaker now The Sun’s polar magnetic fields are much weaker now This plot shows the true 22-year cycle of the Sun This plot shows the true 22-year cycle of the Sun Cycle 22 max Cycle 23 max Cycle 21 max magnetic field of Sun reverses at solar max

23. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Disappearing Sunspots We won’t see sunspots when strength less than 1500 Gauss We won’t see sunspots when strength less than 1500 Gauss Updated data still showing decrease Updated data still showing decrease But may be leveling off But may be leveling off original data updated data Livingston & Penn data Svalgaard update

24. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA “Rush to the Poles” Horizontal axis is ‘time’, vertical axis is ‘north solar latitude’ Horizontal axis is ‘time’, vertical axis is ‘north solar latitude’ Data is yearly average number of Fe XIV emission regions (530.3 nm) – kind of like a butterfly diagram Data is yearly average number of Fe XIV emission regions (530.3 nm) – kind of like a butterfly diagram Note the high latitude ‘rush to the poles’ for Cycles 21, 22 and 23 – and the lack thereof for Cycle 24 Note the high latitude ‘rush to the poles’ for Cycles 21, 22 and 23 – and the lack thereof for Cycle 24 Cycle max occurs when 76 +/-2 degrees is reached Cycle max occurs when 76 +/-2 degrees is reached Cycle 24 significantly different from previous cycles Cycle 24 significantly different from previous cycles Northern hemisphere max in late 2011 Northern hemisphere max in late 2011 Predicts southern hemisphere max in early 2014 Predicts southern hemisphere max in early 2014 Altrock data

25. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Predictions from ‘Rush to the Poles’ Prediction: northern hemisphere late 2011 Prediction: northern hemisphere late 2011 Prediction: southern hemisphere early 2014 Prediction: southern hemisphere early 2014

26. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Review of Articles Author(s)AreaConclusion Feynman, et al Maunder Min vs Gleissberg Cycle criteria Gleissberg Cycle Steinhilber, et al Spectral analysis of previous 9400 years Gleissberg Cycle Hathaway Solar polar fields decreasing No conclusion McCracken, et al Cosmic rays not as great as previous GSMs Gleissberg Cycle Vaquero, et al Three descending cycles Maunder Min Giampapa Asymmetry, polar fields, disappearing sunspots Maunder Min Livingston Disappearing sunspots No conclusion Altrock Rush to the Poles No conclusion

27. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Are We Headed Into A Maunder Minimum? Most solar scientists believe we’re going to experience several low solar cycles Most solar scientists believe we’re going to experience several low solar cycles In other words, a Grand Solar Minimum in the Gleissberg cycleIn other words, a Grand Solar Minimum in the Gleissberg cycle But nothing bullet-proof to say we’re headed into a Maunder-type Minimum But nothing bullet-proof to say we’re headed into a Maunder-type Minimum We’ll have to “wait and see” We’ll have to “wait and see”

28. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA What Will Propagation Be Like If We Do Enter A Maunder Minimum? Scenario 1: Scenario 1: F2 region as if zero sunspotsF2 region as if zero sunspots E region diminishedE region diminished Less radiation from 1-10 nm (soft x-rays) Less radiation from 1-10 nm (soft x-rays) D region diminishedD region diminished Less radiation from 0.1-1 nm (hard x-rays) Less radiation from 0.1-1 nm (hard x-rays)

29. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA VOACAP Comparison Zero sunspots Zero sunspots Good low band propagationGood low band propagation 17m F2 expected17m F2 expected 15m F2 would be spotty15m F2 would be spotty 12m and 10m F2 not likely12m and 10m F2 not likely Es still expectedEs still expected Average solar cycle – 10m F2 would be good Average solar cycle – 10m F2 would be good Above average solar cycle (not shown) – 6m F2 likely Above average solar cycle (not shown) – 6m F2 likely Eastern NA to EU – May thru Aug

30. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Scenario 2 Let’s assume sunspots are disappearing per Livingston and Penn Let’s assume sunspots are disappearing per Livingston and Penn We have to remember that sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux are proxies for the true ionizing radiation – which is EUV for the F 2 region We have to remember that sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux are proxies for the true ionizing radiation – which is EUV for the F 2 region What is happening to EUV? What is happening to EUV? Let’s go thru an exercise with sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux Let’s go thru an exercise with sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux Then we’ll go through an exercise with EUV and 10.7 cm solar flux Then we’ll go through an exercise with EUV and 10.7 cm solar flux

31. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Sunspots vs 10.7 cm Solar Flux Note the anomalous data Note the anomalous data When did this happen? When did this happen?

32. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA It happened After Cycle 23 Peak Now data plotted only up to peak of Cycle 23 Now data plotted only up to peak of Cycle 23 R 2 increased – correlation worse after Cycle 23 peak R 2 increased – correlation worse after Cycle 23 peak

33. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Approach Now let’s calculate what the sunspots should have been using the better correlation with 10.7 cm solar flux in the previous slide Now let’s calculate what the sunspots should have been using the better correlation with 10.7 cm solar flux in the previous slide Then we can plot these expected values against what actually happened Then we can plot these expected values against what actually happened

34. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Sunspots Lower Than Expected In light of Livingston and Penn data, 10.7 cm solar flux likely stayed constant and sunspots not as visible In light of Livingston and Penn data, 10.7 cm solar flux likely stayed constant and sunspots not as visible But this does not address EUV yet But this does not address EUV yet

35. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA EUV Let’s go through the same exercise with 10.7 cm solar flux and 26-34 nm EUV Let’s go through the same exercise with 10.7 cm solar flux and 26-34 nm EUV 26-34 nm is responsible for about one half of all of the ionization in the F 2 region 26-34 nm is responsible for about one half of all of the ionization in the F 2 region Download data from SOHO 26-34 nm detector Download data from SOHO 26-34 nm detector Unfortunately we have less EUV data since we had to wait until we had satellites above the atmosphere to measure it Unfortunately we have less EUV data since we had to wait until we had satellites above the atmosphere to measure it EUV absorbed in the ionization process, so we can’t measure it at ground levelEUV absorbed in the ionization process, so we can’t measure it at ground level

36. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA EUV vs 10.7 cm Solar Flux Outlying data seen in the correlation of 10.7 cm vs 26- 34 nm data Outlying data seen in the correlation of 10.7 cm vs 26- 34 nm data Just like in the 10.7 cm vs sunspot data Just like in the 10.7 cm vs sunspot data Correlation decreases after peak of Cycle 23 Correlation decreases after peak of Cycle 23 Plot expected values of EUV against what actually happened Plot expected values of EUV against what actually happened

37. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA And the Result Is... Assuming 10.7 cm solar flux is constant, EUV also decreased after the peak of Cycle 23 (but there was more of a delay) Assuming 10.7 cm solar flux is constant, EUV also decreased after the peak of Cycle 23 (but there was more of a delay) Sunspots decreased to about 70% of expected value Sunspots decreased to about 70% of expected value EUV decreased to about 82% of expected value EUV decreased to about 82% of expected value EUV may not be decreasing as much as sunspots EUV may not be decreasing as much as sunspots

38. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA What Does It All Mean? We need more EUV data We need more EUV data In other words, all of this is speculation – caveat emptor In other words, all of this is speculation – caveat emptor But maybe a Maunder Minimum won’t be as bad as we think if the EUV doesn’t decrease as much as sunspots But maybe a Maunder Minimum won’t be as bad as we think if the EUV doesn’t decrease as much as sunspots 15m F2 moves from “spotty” to “good”15m F2 moves from “spotty” to “good” 12m and 10m may have F2 openings12m and 10m may have F2 openings

39. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Summary Something inside the Sun appears to have changed around the peak of Cycle 23 Something inside the Sun appears to have changed around the peak of Cycle 23 There’s lots of evidence that we are entering a Grand Solar Minimum There’s lots of evidence that we are entering a Grand Solar Minimum But nothing 100% sure to say it’s going to be a Maunder- type Minimum But nothing 100% sure to say it’s going to be a Maunder- type Minimum If it is a Maunder-type Minimum, 15m F2 will be spotty, with no 12m and 10m F2 and only 6m Es If it is a Maunder-type Minimum, 15m F2 will be spotty, with no 12m and 10m F2 and only 6m Es If it is a Dalton-type Minimum, we’ll experience propagation kind of like what we’re experiencing now If it is a Dalton-type Minimum, we’ll experience propagation kind of like what we’re experiencing now We’re going to collect some good data in the next ten years or so to hopefully explain what the Sun is doing and how it impacts a Grand Solar Minimum We’re going to collect some good data in the next ten years or so to hopefully explain what the Sun is doing and how it impacts a Grand Solar Minimum

40. WWROF Webinar - Apr 2014 - K9LA Answer to Pop Quiz W2XBS and W3XE - both were early TV stations W2XBS and W3XE - both were early TV stations April 2014 considered the 75 th anniversary of TV April 2014 considered the 75 th anniversary of TV W2XBS inaugurated regular television broadcasting on April 30, 1939 W2XBS inaugurated regular television broadcasting on April 30, 1939 Opening of the 1939 World’s FairOpening of the 1939 World’s Fair Televised the first Major League Baseball game on August 26, 1939Televised the first Major League Baseball game on August 26, 1939 Brooklyn Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds from Ebbets Field Brooklyn Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds from Ebbets Field Became WNBC/4Became WNBC/4 W3XE televised the 1940 Republican National Convention from Philadelphia on June 24-28 W3XE televised the 1940 Republican National Convention from Philadelphia on June 24-28 Now KYW-TVNow KYW-TV