Presentation on theme: "Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic Extremes in Agriculture Sector Atiq Kainan Ahmed Senior Social."— Presentation transcript:
1 Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic Extremes in Agriculture SectorAtiq Kainan AhmedSenior Social Scientist, ADPC.
2 Bangladesh Case Projected trends Increasing frequency, intensity and variability of droughts, floods, tropical stormsSea level rise and salt water intrusionAgriculture will be the most affected sector
9 LACC objectivesDevelop a methodology to transform climate change impact modelling into livelihood adaptation practicesStrengthen institutional structures to handle climate change adaptationInitiate and facilitate the field testing with farmers of livelihood adaptation strategies
10 Designing adaptation strategy Key strategyAssessing current vulnerabilityAssessing future climate risksDesigning adaptation strategyStakeholder engagement and feedbackTesting adaptation options
12 Local perceptions –1 On climate variability Current climate is behaving differently from the past years. The past climate condition was better (says the elderly people) .Seasonal cycle (locally called rhituchakra) has changed from the past. Where it used to be 6 distinct seasons in the past but now its almost 3 or 4 seasons observed distinctly in a year.Climatic conditions have changed due to the God’s will (khodar ichay) and the cure – the rainfall is in the God’s hand (akasher pani allar haatey).The average temperature in the area has changed. People feel that summer time heat increased and the winter has become shorter and in some winter days cold became severe.
13 Local perceptions –2 On drought situation People’s perceptions on drought are equated to:dryness (locally known as shukna),consecutive non-rainy days (locally known as ana-bristi),Drought is more frequent now than before.Prevalence of pest and disease incidence increased and largely associated with HYV rice.With adoption of HYV rice the production increased but due to climatic variability adverse impact of drought causes yield reduction.Vegetable and fruits (Mango varieties) remain affected due to variations in rain, temperature and drought situations.
14 Risks and vulnerabilities Both types of factors: climatic & non-climatic factors emerged.
15 Profiling of livelihood groups MostvulnerablegroupsWage labourersSmall & marginal farmersFishersPetty traders/ businessmenLargefarmersLarge businessmen‘Non’ or ‘least’vulnerablegroups
17 Small & marginal farmers (32.43%) Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, dryness, high temperature, and erraticity of the aboveCrop yield reductionElectricity failure (for irrigation supply)Unavailability of surface water storage facilities (e.g. khari, ponds)Unavailability of natural water bodies (e.g. canals, rivers)Pest infestationUndulation of landUnavailability of DTWInsufficient irrigation supply systems (mostly tertiary canals)Unavailability of supplementary irrigation facilitiesHigh price of agricultural inputsTenancy related complexitiesInability to cultivate 'boro' crop
18 Wage labourers (41.10%)Climatic factors: high temperature/heat (summer months), cold (during winter months)Lack of healthcare facilitiesLack of cash/savingsLack (ownership) of cultivable landFood shortageUnavailability of work during 'boro' seasonInsufficient labour opportunities during 'aus‘ and ‘rabi’ seasonLow female employment opportunitiesCommuting problemsSeasonal migration(usually failed ones)Livestock/poultry diseases/sufferings/lossPoor wage rateTenancy, share and wage related complexities
19 Petty traders/ businessmen (6.81%) Limited number of buyers in the marketLack of cash/savingsLimited ownership of sufficient cultivable landCredit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)Lack of non-farm employment opportunitiesLow market priceCommuting problems
20 Fishers (fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours) 0.35% Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, high temperatureDeclining natural water bodies (rivers and canals)Declining number of pond/khariesDeclining natural fish speciesLimited opportunities for fishing (fish markets, storage facilities etc.)Difficulties in getting lease for fishing of khas (public) water bodiesCredit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)
21 ‘Least’ vulnerable groups (Large farmers and Large businessmen) 6 Severe and consecutive droughtsLocal political influences/situationProlong electricity failureFall of external markets (e.g. failure in selling products in other districts)Transportation problemsHigh price of agricultural machineries and inputs in external marketsTimely availability of agricultural inputs in the local marketAccess to better landsAccess to lands near better sources of water retaining facilitiesHaving buffer from the T-Aman seasonAbility to arrange additional enhanced irrigation facilitiesTenancy arrangements (i.e. ability to lease out lands)Better economic conditions allow them to go for alternative crops, timely agricultural actions and inputs including labour etc.
22 Comparative asset composition Non-irrigated areasIrrigated areas
25 Designing adaptation options Develop viable Adaptation optionsCollate indigenous, local and research based adaptation optionsSynthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location specific conditionsScientific validation of adaptation optionsLocal prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing
27 Only the adjacent lands got benefited from kharies while the farthest lands remain uncultivated due to lack of water.
28 Adaptive responses-2 (State supported modern practices) Tank water supplyDTWUse of paid irrigation
29 Adaptive responses-3 (Alternative/selective) MangoHome gardeningDual purpose (optimal use of water & plant)Livestock and birds(that consume less water)
30 Use of traditional means and sources Adaptive responses-4 (Domestic practices)Use of traditional means and sourcesLoad sharing
31 Agricultural adaptive practices Pond (and khari) water irrigationDTW/STW water irrigationBeel, canals and rivers water irrigationTillageMulchingUse of green manure/pesticide useAlternate crops (more tolerant ones)Selection of rice varietiesAlternative livestock/birdsShort duration fish culture (short term)AgriculturaladaptationsErosion of (use) savingsCredit (NGO-GO sources)Loan (relatives or informal sources)Out migration (cyclical)Multiple livelihood activitiesChange of occupationsMortgage propertiesSocio-economic adaptations
32 Typology of agricultural adaptations Agronomic managementWater harvesting and exploitation3. Water Use efficiency
33 4. Crop intensification and diversification 5. Alternate enterprises6. Post harvest practices
40 Community mobilizations Community awareness raisingFarmers groups mobilizationPlanning, action and monitoring demonstrations on farmers fieldsCapacity building and training sessionsCommunity Risk reduction planning
41 Gradual systematic up-scalling of livelihoods adaptations Assessing current vulnerabilityAssessing future climate risksDesigning adaptation strategyStakeholder engagement and feedbackTesting adaptation options
42 Incorporation of End-to-end climate information generation and application system Providing climate outlookInterpreting global climate outlook into local outlookTranslating local climate outlook into impact scenariosCommunication of response options/ feedback
43 Community level forecast information sharing End-to-endearly warning facilitation to the community
44 Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the community
45 Interpretation and action Agency notificationCommunity notificationResponse operationsForecastingAdaptive Learning and Capacity Buildingto interpret probabilistic forecast, prepare impact outlooks, communicate impact outlooks with response options to enhance preparedness
46 Capacity Building Climate risk and impact analysis climate risk analysis methodsclimate change impactsviable adaptation optionsii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigationintroduction to forecast productsApplication of weather and climate forecast products
47 Some key lessonsDevelopment, DRR and CCA are integrated issues at the local levelMoving towards adaptation requires a livelihoods perspectiveAn “adaptive learning environment” is essential for building adaptive capacity at community level as well as institutional level.CFA/EWS are a good entry points for managing climatic extremesValue indigenous/local knowledge ; we need to build on those, and integrate it with external “know hows”
48 Vulnerable Coping range Hazards are increasing Adaptive capacity is not increasing
49 Vulnerable Coping range Vulnerable Adaptation Need for up-scaling adaptive capacityVulnerableClimate shockAdaptationCoping rangeVulnerable
50 Vulnerable Coping range Time Adaptation “Gradual increase “in adaptive capacity is neededTimeCoping rangeVulnerableAdaptationClimate shock
51 A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development” question Multiple pathways to improve adaptive responses that would comprise of both short-term and long-term adaptive measures. Such multiple pathways could comprise of:RecommendationsA “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development” questionThis is all about increasing the adaptive capacity of the people in all spheresPhysical–structural adaptationsAgricultural adjustment practicesResearch and innovation for adequate cropsRiskreduction measuresEnabling institutional environmentSocialand culturaladjustmentsShift and switch to alternative cropImprovements in irrigation systemsClimate Forecast InformationAwarenessAndAdvocacyBut, this is also about bringing newer ideas/ experiences/technolo gies and innovations appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environmentSetting and selecting these livelihood options are about stretching the limits of the local adaptive responses as well as the innovation, experiences, technologies appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment of the respective areas.
52 The challenge would be to find out the right balance and combination among these varied adaptation optionsspecific to respective“geo-physical settings” and “livelihoods systems”.