1. Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery: A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration May 22, 2012 Barbara Wagner and Aaron McNay

2. Employment and Total Wage Growth, Percent Increase over Prior Year Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Montana Department of Labor and Industry

3. U.S. and MT Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 10% 7%

4. Total and Payroll Employment, 2020 Projections Slower Job Growth in the Future Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-2010, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2000-2010, Research and Analysis Bureau Employment Projections, 2010-2020 Total Payroll

5. Components of GDP (2010) (Aggregate Demand) GOVERNMENT 20%

6. Take Away Points Montana’s economy is in recovery. Expect slower job growth in the future due to reduced aggregate demand. How do we accelerate job growth? THE BIG QUESTION

7. Answer: Worker Training Types of Unemployment 1.Frictional Normal, good, temporary unemployment that results from workers finding better jobs and turnover. 2.Cyclical Unemployment due to a recession. 3.Structural Skills mismatch between jobs and workers.

8. U.S. Unemployment Rate by Education Level Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

9. Payroll Employment Change 2007 to 2010

10. Projected Growth Compared to Recession Losses Occupation Estimated Recession Losses Projected Statewide Annual Job Growth, 2012 to 2020 Year that All Workers are Rehired Carpenters-2,260140Past 2020 Retail Salespersons-1,1741162019 Construction Laborers-1,17194Past 2020 Bookkeeping and Auditing Clerks-7911492016 Cashiers-7761212015 Secretaries-70215Past 2020 Janitors and Cleaners-56329Past 2020

11. Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers Occupation Projected Annual Growth Minimum Training Required Home Health Aides96Short OJT Registered Nurses72Associate Personal and Home Care Aides54Short OJT Elementary School Teachers52Bachelor's Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants46Vocational training Medical Secretaries31Moderate OJT Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts22Bachelor's Medical Assistants22Moderate OJT Child Care Workers22Short OJT

12. Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply. Excess Workers Occupations Retail Salespeople Carpenters or Construction Laborers Wait Staff Occupations that Need Workers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing Maintenance and Repair Workers Lawyers ?

13. Projected Job Growth by Education and Training Category % of Montana Jobs 2007 to 2010 Change Annual Job Growth 2010-2012 Annual Job Growth 2012-2020 Year Jobs Regained Short to Moderate OJT 55%(15,959)2,5142,5372016 Long OJT or Work Experience 16%(7,415)4458022020 Associate or Vocational Degree 11%286283477No losses Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 19%(78)6088412011 OJT means on-the-job training Source: Montana Employment Projections, 2010, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Dept of Labor and Industry

14. Need Skills with the Degree SkillRetained WorkersPoor Performance Service Orientation/ Customer Service*35.6% Critical Thinking6.3%50.2% Operating Equipment0.9%14.9% Communication5.1%34.5% Following Instructions5.1%61.1% Time Management5.9%43.5% Safety*11.4% Job-Specific Technical Skills*24.9% Work Ethics4.9%46.5% Physical Skills*9.8%

15. Take Away Points Structural unemployment can be addressed at the state level with education and training. In general, more workers are needed in health care and in jobs requiring high levels of education. Carpenters, retail workers, and workers in other occupations will need to be retrained to fill new jobs. Geographical economic disparities are also a factor. Skills are also important.

16. Green Jobs and Restoration Skills Green jobs are not a new phenomenon, but part of the ever- developing process to make production – more efficient, – reduce costs, and – eliminate unnecessary waste in order to make business more profitable. Restoration fixes the mistakes of the past, and is a subset of green Green jobs also include jobs that prevent future environmental damage, including those in industries that do not produce green products.

17. Green Jobs are Not Just a Fad 1.Increased demand for energy and other natural resources will cause price increases. 2.Consumers value ecological services. – Will demand green products – Will likely continue to use policy and regulation to keep immediate environment clean 3.Businesses try to increase profits. – Reducing costs and unnecessary waste – Creating niche products and marketing

18. Need for Green Job Training 4.5% of all Montana jobs are green. Over 85% of businesses participate in some type of “green activity.” Growth rate is slightly faster than all jobs – 260 jobs per year through 2020

19. Percent of Time in Green Work

20. Certification and Licensure LEED Water OSHA Pesticide Application HVAC Electrical Welding Lead Removal EPA/ State Environmental Agency Equipment Operation Architect Environmental Professional Professional Engineer Freon 14% green jobs require some type of certification or license

21. Restoration Case Studies: Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup 31.5 total jobs per million of capital investment Some additional training was needed, but not long-term. Above average wages for the occupation.

22. Restoration Case Studies: Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup 90% of workers lived in Silver Bow County Inconsistent and seasonal work pattern Only 21% had work earnings in every quarter. 73% of workers had earnings before and after cleanup. Many worked multiple jobs. Only 13% received all of their earnings from restoration. Over 50% of earnings came from restoration work.

23. Forest Restoration In Montana 2010 study examined the economic impacts of forest restoration spending in Montana’s economy. Flathead County Stewardship/Energy Conservation Landscaping Project used as a case study. An Input-Output model used to estimate the economic impact.

24. Case Studies: Forest Restoration Per $1 Million in Forest Restoration – 9.2 FTE Directly Involved in Forest Restoration – 19.5 FTE Positions Total – Nearly $600,000 Increase in Total Labor Income – $2.3 Million Increase in Total Economic Activity

25. Forest Restoration In Montana The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spent approximately $7.5 million for forest restoration in Montana. Based on the estimates developed from the Flathead case study, the $7.5 million was estimated to have generated: – 147 Full-Time Equivalent Positions – $17.6 Million in Total Economic Activity

26. Where to Find More Info www.ourfactsyourfuture.org Click on publications for Projections information. Click on Green Jobs Survey Results for Green Jobs. Click on Presentations for a copy of this presentation.

27. Where to Find Reports Projections: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPub lications/4543_projections.pdf http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPub lications/4543_projections.pdf Green Jobs, New Hire Skill Survey, and Forest Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/?PAGEID=4&SUBID= 297 http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/?PAGEID=4&SUBID= 297 Mine Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPub lications/3669_Restoration.pdf http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPub lications/3669_Restoration.pdf

28. QUESTIONS? PRESENTATION, MONTHLY UPDATES, DATA, AND OTHER ECONOMIC RESEARCH AT http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org Barbara Wagner bwagner@mt.gov 406-444-5474 Aaron McNay amcnay@mt.gov 406-444-3245