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Presentation Outline Climate and Society Interaction- current status

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Presentation on theme: "Presentation Outline Climate and Society Interaction- current status"— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and Society Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

2 Presentation Outline Climate and Society Interaction- current status
Climate Change- Emerging trends Socio-Economic Systems-Emerging trends Climate Risk Management- CCA and DRR Integration framework Take Home Points Exercise

3 Monsoon Aberration 2002- India
Drought 2002 Monsoon Aberration India

4 Prayers for Rain

5 Though Seasonal total is almost same ,1973 was a Drought year- India
(Semi-arid zone) Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning In agriculture

6 Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

7 Long-Term Decadal Climate Variability

8 Climate Effects of El Nino

9 El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines
El Nino

10 National Rice Production
El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia Banned using 57 pesticides Release of HY var., increase of rice price Withdraw subsidy for pesticide El-Nino Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas Improve technology and extensification Withdraw subsidy, political crisis Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice Import (Million Tonnes) Rice Production (Million Tonnes) National Rice Production

11 Climate and society

12 Drought Shocks and Policy Response- India
Drought Events 1877 1965 1972 1979 1987 2002 Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes Green Revolution and FCI Scarcity Relief Employ ment Generation Programmes Drought Relief Contingency Crop Plan Drought Management ? ? ? ? Watershed Approach Water Management Each round represent death of one million people Each round represent around fifty million people affected

13 Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production – India
In India, national level resilience increased, however house hold vulnerability remains


15 The long-term context for contemporary warming

16 2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000
Timely and accurate forecast Poor emergency preparedness

17 Climate Change, Variability and extremes
Source: WMO


19 Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950

20 Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.


22 Developing Countries are Hit the Hardest…
(Source: CRED)

23 A Growing population……
The world population reaches 6.66 billions (2008) +80 millions /year, (equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam) In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

24 Homo Sapiens: an urban species
Urban world population Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 Urban population (%) Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 NASA, DSMP 31.6% of urban population is living in slums

25 Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks
Climate Forecasting Applications - Bangladesh Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks Crop Zones 1960’s 1990’s

26 Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg
Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg. Hazard calendar for Bangladesh

27 Food demand and hunger:
The World Food Summit (WFS) estimated that approximately 840 million people in developing countries subsisted on diets that are deficient in calories 96% of these food insecure people suffer from chronic deficiencies; more than 25% of children under age 5 in developing countries are malnourished Significant population experience temporary energy shortfalls caused by natural disasters of hydro-meteorological origin Reducing the undernourished people to halve by the year 2015 is a challenge

28 Emerging food insecurity- Rice crisis in 2008
India withholding rice stocks Drought reduction in wheat production in Australia Snow storm in China reduction in grain production Vietnam withholding rice stocks International market price shoots up to 40% Rice price in Thailand shoots up in response to global demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice in farms

29 Decreasing availability of freshwater for Human Use
Year Population (millions) Average annual renewable global water resources (km3) Potential water availability (m3/yr) 1960 3039.7 44800 17532 1980 4454.3 10058 2000 6079.0 7370 2025 7835.9 5717 (Source: Marios, 2004)

30 Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Recent Advancement in Prediction and Monitoring Science Generation of skill-full, reliable and location specific seasonal climate forecasts through statistical and dynamical schemes Development of real-time monitoring systems to track the nature of causes and impacts (eg. Satellite meteorology and remote sensing techniques) Development of climate change scenarios through Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

31 Advancement in Risk Management Technologies
New generation system analysis tools for climate risk analysis, impact assessment and tailoring alternate management/adaptation practices (eg. models for crops and eco-system dynamics) Economic models and decision analysis tools to guide in managing risks (eg. models for resource optimization) Development of communication and extension technologies (eg. communicating probabilistic climate information)

32 Potential & Actual Utilization of Climate Information Products
Forecast Users Forecast Providers Actual

33 Climate Risk Management- Challenges
Risk Communication Dealing with uncertainties Decision research and stakeholder involvement Integrating climate information into decision making process ADPC experience in risk communication will be shared

34 Experiences in generating demand driven climate information
Eg. Understanding decision options and lead time requirements of end users (Bangladesh)

35 35
Early warning systems. Every year, disasters caused by weather, climate and water-related hazards impact on communities around the world, leading to loss of human life, destruction of social and economic infrastructure and degradation of already fragile ecosystems. Statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the university of Leuven, Belgium, reveal that from , about 90% of natural disasters were meteorological or hydrological in origin; the resulting economic losses were estimated at $446bn, or about 65% of all damage caused by natural disasters. 35

36 Type of climate information Level of uncertainty
Part 2 Type of climate information Level of uncertainty Past climate information Climate information monitoring (observed) + 24-48 Hours weather forecast information ++ 5-7 day forecast information +++ Climate forecast information (one month and beyond) (some forecast skill) ++++ Climate change scenario information (distant future)

37 Graduated Response to Disaster Risks
Seasonal Forecast ( 3-6 months) Strategic Decisions 20-21 Days Forecasts Tactical Decision Planning 5-7 days Forecasts Applications

38 Climate Forecast Applications
Climate Forecast Applications Process Project Initiation Utilization of Research Products Research Obtain climate information Analysis of variability and predictability Regional climate modeling Down-scaling Experimen-tal uptake Capacity building for upscaling CFA Decision system Reduced vulnerability to climate risks Minimize losses Maximize benefits of good climate Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models Partnership development Selection of demonstra-tion sites Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies

39 Climate Forecast Applications
The need: Climate forecast information that: is localized timely in easily understandable language meets end user needs The issues: Capacity to generate the localized information Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

40 End-to-end climate information and application system
Early Warning Information Products End-to-end climate information and application system Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication on farmers responses/ feedback

41 Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia Directorate of Plant Protection IPB Provision of climate outlook BMG Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook Indramayu Agriculture Office Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response

42 Climate Forecast Applications
Institutional mechanism: Philippines

43 Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh
Climate, Disasters and Society Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh Forecast development and Application technology CFAN/ADPC BMD ADPC /CEGIS Climate forecast IWM FFWC/BWDB Discharge translation Agro met translation DMB, DAE CEGIS, ADPC, CARE communication CEGIS, ADPC, CARE End users

44 Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation
Way forward…. Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation Source: WRI, 2007

45 Adapting Climate Risk Management
Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change Detect observable climate change trends Confirm observable trends with climate change models Downscale and provide locally usable climate information Establish institutional partnership with climate information providers and users Community based climate risk management programes grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.

46 Take Home Points Climate Risk is a Development issue.
Climate Change- Strong evidences and New challenges. Climate Risk Management framework- Could be one of the practical Adaptation tools to deal with Uncertainties. Adaptation projects and programes could be evolved and implemented by adopting Climate Risk Management frameworks. .

47 Exercise

48 What is climate risk? Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management

49 Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk =
What is climate risk? Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management

50 What is climate risk? Climate Risk = Climate hazard x Vulnerability

51 What is climate risk? Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management

52 Climate and its impacts (Assessment framework)
Climate Extremes Climate Variability Climate Change

53 Country Hazard Vulnerability Management Climate risk Australia 1 9 0.1 Thailand 2 5 0.8 Vietnam 4 Philippines 3 6 6.5 Cambodia Bangladesh 7 7.7

54 Group Work (1.5 hours) Form a group (UN agencies, country groups, NGOs) Rank the level of risk in your region/country/village Given the ranking, what kind of risk management options would you recommend? 54

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