Where do SAs emissions come from? Key sources of emissions –Energy sector ~80% of GHG emissions –Supply on its own 45% (Eskom and Sasol) … –… but also users – industry, transport, others The challenge of mitigation in SA is an energy question No question that the fuel mix will have to change –if SA is to take some responsibility for mitigation SAs emissions are increasing … … and high in international comparison
Major sources of emissions are energy supply and use Energy industries 45% Industrial energy 14% Transport 11% Other energy 7% Fugitive emissions 2% Industry 8% Agriculture 9% Waste 4% Share of national GHG emissions, 1994
Emissions from electricity projected to increase over time Based on data for the NERs 2003/4 National Integrated Resource Plan 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Mt CO 2 Projected CO 2 emissions from electricity supply, NIRP reference case
SAs share of emissions, GDP and population Data source: Climate Analysis Indicator Tool, WRI 1.23% 0.92% 0.73% Emissions GDP Population SA's share of global total
SA emissions in international comparison SA contributes 1-1.5% of global emissions Share differs, depending on gases, sources and time-frame considered SAs share of annual energy CO 2 emissions is more than 50% higher than for historical cumulative CO2 emissions with LULUCF Challenge for SA: –Emissions per GDP and per capita high
POINTS OF VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO DIRECT IMPACTS DIRECT IMPACTS Water Resources Agriculture Forestry Human Health Biodiversity ECONOMIC Fossil fuel based economy Coal exporter Developing economy Financial constraints Insufficient appropriate technology
Some programmes that have been implemented in SA to adapt? Sectoral programmes focused on poverty –Landcare – transforms unsustainable agricultural practice –Working for Water – alien plant removal to restore water –Working for Wetlands – restoration of water sources –Working on Fire – Fire control Potential for the use of LULUCF & sink strategies for mitigation are limited –Little forest cover –For SA, LULUCF is a vulnerability & adaptation issue
What has SA done in response to climate change? National climate change response strategy Outreach, –National climate change conference –Ministerial Indaba CDM DNA established Renewable energy target –10 000 GWh by 2013 Energy efficiency strategy –12% less final energy demand than BAU in 2014 NEM-Air Quality Act provisions –Controlled emitters –Controlled fuels –Reporting –Air quality management plans –Priority pollutants?? –Etc.
CDM in South Africa Small but growing Established Designated National Authority in the Dept of Minerals & Energy (http://www.dme.gov.za)http://www.dme.gov.za –29 CDM projects submitted to the DNA (11 PDDs, 18 PINs) –44 MtCO2 over the period 2005 to 2012; possibly 942 Mt in PINs Actively engaging in carbon markets –Emissions derivative trading on JHB Stock Exchange Markets need certainty to secure carbon as a long term tradable commodity i.e. second commitment period for Kyoto (article 3.9) Uneven geographical distribution issue for Africa
Current Activities Air Quality Act implementation GHG inventory systems Vehicles emissions strategy Climate change R&D strategy Technology needs assessment Sector implementation plans of the national climate change response strategy Bio-fuels task-force (food security & water scarcity)
South Africa understands urgency of action One of our most urgent challenges as the global community is to convince all nations to join and support the international effort to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. I have no doubt that the next few years will be crucial to move us out of an approach of stalling, of avoidance, and of excuses to one where we all accept our responsibility to deal with climate change within an inclusive multilateral international framework. Climate change is a global scourge and requires a unified global partnership for action. – Minister van Schalkwyk, April 2005 at Champion of the Earth award
Need for a Plan of Action All nations accept responsibility to deal with climate change within an inclusive multilateral regime that balances adaptation & mitigation Consolidate fragmented decisions into a coherent programme of work. Coordinate different strands of work Supported by financing and improved investment environment from both public and private sources Engage – political level; private sector, finance ministers, public …
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