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BAS I C BASIC Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India International.

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Presentation on theme: "BAS I C BASIC Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India International."— Presentation transcript:

1 BAS I C BASIC Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India International Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005 Johannesburg, South Africa

2 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Presentation Sequence Why Energy and Infrastructure? Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure Methodology Results Major findings and conclusions Recommendations and future work

3 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Why Energy and Infrastructure? Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic development These are man made long-life assets investment is crucial to support a higher level of industrial growth These systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable level of variability but climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events Damages occur primarily because of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity Economic growth in India demands energy and development of its infrastructure Huge investments are planned for these sectors

4 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages. Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions. Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas. Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily affected by climate change. Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate. Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters. Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.

5 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Civil Buildings Bridges Slope Cutting Embankment Tunnel Forest Cover Air QualityFlora/ fauna Land erosion Coast. Env. Effect of project on environment, Short term impacts are prominent Environmental Effects Project Components Forcing Variables Conventional Impact Matrix

6 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Reverse Impact Matrix Dependent Variables Forcing Variables Environmental Variables Project Components Environmental Variables Projects Components

7 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Konkan Railway The 760 Km long Konkan Railway on the Western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and 1819 minor bridges, 92 tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 meters). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and the longest bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 meters high, taller than Qutab Minar.

8 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Konkan Railway: Climate Change Impacts Climatic ParameterImpact ParameterIntervening ParameterImpact on KRC Temperature Increase High evaporation rateStability and Strength of the building materials Buildings gets weakened More and frequent repair and maintenance Surface and ground water lossCrop productivity in the region may be affected Agricultural fright traffic Need for Air-conditioningPassenger traffic may shift to Air conditioned class Affects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition. Rainfall Increase Ground and surface water level change Flooding and water logging, Erosion reduces quality of land cover Buildings affected, structural damages may take place. Increased maintenance and other related costs Improved water availability in the region Agricultural productionChanges in agricultural freight traffic Humidity increaseUncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth along the track Passenger traffic, affected, increased maintenance cost Sea Level Change Land erosion Tracks tunnels and bridges may be affected Increased maintenance, FloodingLand stability, and land slidesDamage to infrastructure, Reconstruction and relocation Water logging Delays, risk increase Extreme Events Cyclone and high velocity winds and storms Damage to buildings, communication lines etc Disruption of services, repair and reconstruction costs Cloud burstsLand erosion, floods, and land slidesExtensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction

9 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Konkan Railway: Impact Analysis Environmental Variables Project Components Environmental Variables Project Components

10 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C India: Observed and Simulated Rainfall Precipitation scenario (2050s, CCSR/NIES model, Japan) (mm/month) Precipitation scenario (2100, HadCM model, IITM Pune, India)

11 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons. An accident on 21 st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h. Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity. Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of Raksha Dhaga. Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures

12 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Climate Change Impact on Energy Direct Impacts Space cooling and heating in residential, commercial and industrial buildings Air-conditioning in transport vehicles Time of use and cooling load Indirect Impacts Increased water requirement for irrigation Increased residential water requirement Water availability Supply Side Impacts Hydroelectricity potential Activities of petroleum companies

13 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters (ANSWER-MARKAL)

14 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp. Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)

15 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100 Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport Energy mix is unaltered. Climate Change Impact on Energy

16 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Climate Change Impact on Emissions In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case Emissions increase in power and transport sectors Cumulative increase 710 MT

17 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Probability and Variability Increasing mean and variability of the number of days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. A.With increase in the mean, the probability of receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases resulting in increased threat to infrastructure B.Increase in variability may cause extremely high concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many new locations getting high rainfall, and many existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more frequent and severe rainfall. C.Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will make the system highly vulnerable as this will result in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered in time and space.

18 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Infrastructure Maintenance Costs Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old. Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21 st century. Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.

19 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Findings and Conclusions Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the century, depending on location. Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term. Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term projects should carry out this analysis. Many studies for emission assessment but very few for Impacts Non technological measures are also important for effective implementation Environmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water) Macro-micro / Global-local linkage E.g. Building code, Insurance Integrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation

20 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Findings and Conclusions Two important insights need for awareness building among the concerned people developing good quality databases further studies are needed which would require Preparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events, assessing the damages and providing the loss estimates Detailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and geological details showing the major infrastructure systems and components Sensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components with respect to various forcing climate parameters

21 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Energy and Infrastructure: Adaptation Strategies Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events Contingency planning and disaster preparedness Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency Relocation and industrial restructuring Planning for likely increase in demands Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning Adaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to changes in climatic parameters Attention to the security of infrastructure Risk financing and risk mitigation

22 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Recommendations Incorporation of future climate extremes in the project design parameters in the immediate-term Improved operational and maintenance practices in the near-term Improved climate predictions and creation of insurance markets in the long-term

23 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Scope for Future Work Establishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and identification of the cost structure. Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the help of Sectoral case studies Identification of forcing variables and values of thresholds Linking of scenarios to critical parameters Development of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm for climate change impact studies Detailed regional climate variable projections Adaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology, community response, innovations and insurance Financing adaptation research and activities Integrated impact assessment studies

24 Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India BASI C Thank You.


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