Presentation on theme: "Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure"— Presentation transcript:
1Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure Manmohan KapsheMaulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaInternational Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005 Johannesburg, South Africa
2Presentation Sequence Why Energy and Infrastructure?Special Characteristics of Energy and InfrastructureMethodologyResultsMajor findings and conclusionsRecommendations and future work
3Why Energy and Infrastructure? Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic developmentThese are man made long-life assetsinvestment is crucial to support a higher level of industrial growthThese systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable level of variability but climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme eventsDamages occur primarily because of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacityEconomic growth in India demands energy and development of its infrastructureHuge investments are planned for these sectors
4Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages.Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planningSubstantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions.Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily affected by climate change.Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate.Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters.Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.
5Conventional Impact Matrix Civil BuildingsBridgesSlope CuttingEmbankmentTunnelForest CoverAir QualityFlora/faunaLanderosionCoast. Env.Project ComponentsEnvironmental EffectsEffect of project on environment,Short term impacts are prominentForcing Variables
7Konkan RailwayThe 760 Km long Konkan Railway on the Western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and minor bridges, 92 tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 meters). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and the longest bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 meters high, taller than Qutab Minar.
8Konkan Railway: Climate Change Impacts Climatic ParameterImpact ParameterIntervening ParameterImpact on KRCTemperature IncreaseHigh evaporation rateStability and Strength of the building materialsBuildings gets weakened More and frequent repair and maintenanceSurface and ground water lossCrop productivity in the region may be affectedAgricultural fright trafficNeed for Air-conditioningPassenger traffic may shift to Air conditioned classAffects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition.Rainfall IncreaseGround and surface water level changeFlooding and water logging, Erosion reduces quality of land coverBuildings affected, structural damages may take place. Increased maintenance and other related costsImproved water availability in the regionAgricultural productionChanges in agricultural freight trafficHumidity increaseUncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth along the trackPassenger traffic, affected, increased maintenance costSea Level ChangeLand erosionTracks tunnels and bridges may be affectedIncreased maintenance,FloodingLand stability, and land slidesDamage to infrastructure,Reconstruction and relocationWater loggingDelays, risk increaseExtreme EventsCyclone and high velocity winds and stormsDamage to buildings, communication lines etcDisruption of services, repair and reconstruction costsCloud burstsLand erosion, floods, and land slidesExtensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction
11Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity.Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”.Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures
12Climate Change Impact on Energy Direct ImpactsSpace cooling and heating in residential, commercial and industrial buildingsAir-conditioning in transport vehiclesTime of use and cooling loadIndirect ImpactsIncreased water requirement for irrigationIncreased residential water requirementWater availabilitySupply Side ImpactsHydroelectricity potentialActivities of petroleum companies
13Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters (ANSWER-MARKAL)
14Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp. Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)
15Climate Change Impact on Energy Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference caseElectricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transportEnergy mix is unaltered.
16Climate Change Impact on Emissions In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference caseEmissions increase in power and transport sectorsCumulative increase 710 MT
17Probability and Variability Increasing mean and variability of the number of days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken.With increase in the mean, the probability of receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases resulting in increased threat to infrastructureIncrease in variability may cause extremely high concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many new locations getting high rainfall, and many existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more frequent and severe rainfall.Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will make the system highly vulnerable as this will result in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered in time and space.
18Infrastructure Maintenance Costs 200020202040206020802100Repair and Maintenance CostsCost Curve Under Climate ChangeConventional Bath-Tub CurveLong-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old. Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century. Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.
19Findings and Conclusions Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the century, depending on location.Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term. Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term projects should carry out this analysis.Many studies for emission assessment but very few for ImpactsNon technological measures are also important for effective implementationEnvironmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water)Macro-micro / Global-local linkageE.g. Building code, InsuranceIntegrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation
20Findings and Conclusions Two important insightsneed for awareness building among the concerned peopledeveloping good quality databasesfurther studies are needed which would requirePreparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events, assessing the damages and providing the loss estimatesDetailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and geological details showing the major infrastructure systems and componentsSensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components with respect to various forcing climate parameters
21Energy and Infrastructure: Adaptation Strategies Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related eventsContingency planning and disaster preparednessChanges in financial mechanisms to increase resiliencyRelocation and industrial restructuringPlanning for likely increase in demandsIncreased efficiencies in thermal conditioningAdaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to changes in climatic parametersAttention to the security of infrastructureRisk financing and risk mitigation
22RecommendationsIncorporation of future climate extremes in the project design parameters in the immediate-termImproved operational and maintenance practices in the near-termImproved climate predictions and creation of insurance markets in the long-term
23Scope for Future WorkEstablishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and identification of the cost structure.Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the help of Sectoral case studiesIdentification of forcing variables and values of thresholdsLinking of scenarios to critical parametersDevelopment of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm for climate change impact studiesDetailed regional climate variable projectionsAdaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology, community response, innovations and insuranceFinancing adaptation research and activitiesIntegrated impact assessment studies