1. The Australian Ageing Research Agenda
Prof G A (Tony) Broe
Prince of Wales Ageing Research Centre
Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute
President Elect
Australian Association of Gerontology

2. Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute
“Serious Ageing”
Oeppen and Vaupal, “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy”. Science (2002)
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“Serious ageing” should be be incorporated into the Ageing Research Agenda
Vaupel (Science 2002) is likely to be correct – an average life expectancy of 100 yrs by 2060
Malthus was wrong – wealthy populations age & get richer, rather than multiply & get poorer
Demographers’ age limits have been very wrong: Dublin (65y), Omran (70), Fries & Olshansky (85)
Politicians blame the baby boomers. But they will be little more than a “blip” on our future ageing
Australia will have 1.3 M. people 85+ by 2051 (a 400% increase as the population grows by 30%)
Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute

4. The Ageing Research Agenda Questions
What is the difference, or relative value, in pursuing “ageing research” vs more general research acknowledging age differentials?
How can “ageing research” contribute to the “general” Australian Research Agenda?
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5. The Ageing Research Agenda Questions
What is the difference, or relative value, in pursuing “ageing research” vs more general research acknowledging age differentials?
What characterises “human ageing” as a topic worthy of its own research agenda?
What characterises “general” scientific research?
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6. What characterises Human Ageing?
Very serious - “the ageing of the aged” – 80+
Very rapid - so it has a recognition time-lag
Very recent - so it has lack of acceptance
Poorly understood - distal & proximal causes
Extremely complex - accumulated genetic/ environment interactions across the life-span
Multifactorial - we should embrace diversity
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7. Ageing is very rapid, very recent & v. complex
Population Ageing - England
Ageing is very rapid, very recent & v. complex 25 20 15
% over 60 10 5
1541
1751
1800
1921
1981
Era
Laslett P. Ageing Soc
1984; 4:379-89
% over 60
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8. ‘Ageing of the aged’ from 1970 on – (Vaupel, Science 1998)
Mortality declines with advancing age over 80
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9. What characterises Human Ageing?
Serious ageing - “the ageing of the aged” 80+
Very rapid - so it has a recognition time-lag
Very recent - so it has lack of acceptance
Poorly understood - distal & proximal causes
Extremely complex - an accumulation of life- long genetic/environment interactions
Multifactorial - we must embrace complexity
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10. Human Ageing & Medicine Lack of acceptance of a new discipline
The Australian Association of Gerontology was formed in 1964 & now has about 1000 members - however
Geriatric Medicine & Old Age Psychiatry training were accepted by our colleges only after 1976
“We look after old people” - Syndrome of the 1970s-80s when we set up our multidisciplinary clinical units
“We do ageing research” - Syndrome of the s when we set up our multidisciplinary research units
“Keep your old people out of our acute hospitals” Syndrome of
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11. The Ageing Research Agenda
What is the difference, or relative value, in pursuing “ageing research” vs more general research acknowledging age differentials?
What characterises “human ageing” as a topic worthy of its own research agenda?
What characterises “general” scientific research?
Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute

12. The Ageing Research Agenda
Very recent
Very new
Tackles serious ageing
New questions abound
Complexity rules
Multi-factorial
“General” Research
Comparatively old
Pretty “establishment”
Defines midlife as aging
An aura of dogma
Ockham’s razor rules
Reductionist
Can these 2 agendas be merged?
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Q. What is the difference, or relative value, in pursuing “ageing research” vs more “general” research acknowledging age differentials?
A. Both are legitimate and both are essential.
1. Nutrition, exercise, cancer, cardio-vascular & other system-based (vs “general”) researchers can & do piggy-back age-related research onto older cohorts with important advances in ageing
2. Gerontologists should drive complex, multi-factorial, across discipline, across life-span research on serious ageing that links social environmental & biological risk factors. “Ageing research” needs to cross current restrictive boundaries set up by funding bodies such as ARC, NHMRC, NHF etc
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Q.2. How can “ageing research” contribute to the “general” Australian Research Agenda?
The principles intrinsic to “Ageing Research” (complexity; diversity; multifactorial causation; a life-span approach and multidisciplinary approach) apply increasingly to many other research fields
The Information Revolution has transformed social and epidemiological research. Combined with advances in genetics, imaging, I.T. and other technologies we have the tools to bring ageing research principles to any research area
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Q 3.Can investigator driven, hypothesis testing, ageing research assist aged policy/services?
Appropriate population-based studies are a scientific equivalent of the more PC consumer consultation (RCS = randomized controlled surveys)
Kilsyth, Dubbo, SOPS, Canberra, and other studies have made many direct & indirect contributions to ageing and health services in Australia
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Sydney Older Persons Study: Summary of topics - Publications from 1995
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Conclusions
Population Ageing is a good product of 200 yrs of wealth, health and salubrity - creating a majority of healthy older people, who don’t throw bombs
Average life-span will increase relentlessly; but our very old aren’t dying - their brains simply fade away
We need to delay and reduce late-life decline and disability; and to support failing old & their carers
“Ageing Research” is the key. Longitudinal, cross discipline, socio-epidemiological studies w. biological correlates - is a good methodology to answer the Qs.
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