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1 The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January.

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Presentation on theme: "1 The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January 14, 2007

2 2 Agenda Overview of Black Sea Conflicts Senturion Methodology Detailed Baseline Results Summary of Findings Conclusion

3 3 Agenda Overview EU Membership - Stable Supporting Conflict & Peace - N-K, S. Ossetia, Abkhazia Multiple Low-Level Conflicts - Cyprus, Kurdish uprising, Armenian Genocide Gas pipelines - Leverage

4 4 Approach Senturion uses input data from subject matter experts (SMEs) to: Frame the issues Identify stakeholders position, influence, and importance Applies game theory, decision theory, and spatial bargaining models to simulate: Evolving stakeholder relationships Formation of potential coalitions Impacts of changes in environment Utility of the model: Visual representation of complex situations Provides a forum to discuss the nature of dispute and to mediate compromise Provides insights into complex decision making Senturion Methodology

5 5 Senturion has been used to analyze Nagorno-Karabakh related issues since August SMEs have been consulted in Washington, Baku, and Yerevan. The pool of subject matter experts (SMEs) includes academics, think- tanks analysts, Armenians, Azeris, and US government employees. To illustrate the application of Senturion modeling to this problem, this briefing summarizes separate studies conducted in September 2006 and January 2008 regarding the dispute over the Nagorno- Karabakh region. These results are based on data collected from both Armenian and Azerbaijani sources on over 140 distinct stakeholders. Background Senturion Methodology

6 6 Senturion Issue Analyzed Analyses focus on stakeholder behavior and political interaction around a range of possible outcomes. This study focuses on the following continuum: Senturion Methodology N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachincorridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NKIndep status w/ Lachin NKIndep status w/ Lachin& territories

7 7 Detailed Baseline Senturion Analysis September 2006 & January 2008 Studies

8 8 The following slides provide a visualization of the modeled results: The first graph details the current positions of stakeholders from both the Azerbaijani and Armenian perspectives. The second graph details the forecasted positions of stakeholders at the conclusion of bargaining. This allows us to analyze how this situation will unfold. Azerbaijani & Armenian Positions

9 9 Current Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study) Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lachin NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lachin NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories Current Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study) Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Abiyev Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Rasizade Aliyev Mammadyarov Ter-Petrosian Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) Pashayev Abiyev Mahmudov Usubov Rasizade Aliyev Ter-Petrosian Sahakyan Hakobyan Kocharian NK Dashnak Party ARM Dashnak Party Sarkisian Petrosian Oskanian Haroutunyan 9 Sadiqov Mammadyarov

10 Forecasted Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study) Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lachin NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lachin NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study) Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Pashayev Abiyev Mahmudov Usubov Rasizade Aliyev Ter-Petrosian Gukasian Ohanian Kocharian Dashnak Party (NK) Dashnak Party (ARM) Sarkisian Babayan Oskanian Margaryan Sadiqov Pashayev Abiyev Mahmudov Usubov Rasizade Aliyev Ter-Petrosian Sahakyan Hakobyan Kocharian NK Dashnak Party ARM Dashnak Party Sarkisian Petrosian Oskanian Haroutunyan Sadiqov Mammadyarov

11 11 Senturion analysis indicates that Azerbaijani sources perceive the current political landscape as highly segmented. –Over time, the forecast reveals that a majority of Azerbaijani elites will move close to supporting the provisional status. –They also expect Armenia & Karabakh elites to form a consensus around an independent state with a corridor through Lachin. On the other hand, analysis based on Armenian sources shows the stakeholders on all sides adopting disparate positions across the political landscape. Armenia elites are also forecasted to expected to move decisively in support of the provisional status. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is expected to remain steadfast in demanding Karabakhs re-annexation. Summary of Findings (Sept 2006 Study) Summary of Findings

12 12 Analysis demonstrates a bias on both sides towards their own proclivity for agreement. Sadly, regardless of how Senturion modeling is framed (between Azerbaijani & Armenian sources), the elites on all sides are either (1) on the verge of a peaceful solution or (2) oceans apart. This finding underscores the need for direct dialogue between the parties to the conflict. Senturion modeling can also be used to test potential COAs and attempt to find feasible compromises Identify obstacles to agreement Evaluate ways to mitigate the influence of potential obstacles Next Steps Conclusion

13 13

14 14 Detailed Baseline Senturion Analysis (September 2006 Study)

15 Current Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Radical Vets NRM Abiyev Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Gulluzadeh Abbasov Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Mammadyarov Azimov Ter-Petrosian Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) 15

16 N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders Radical Vets NRM Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Pashayev Hasanov Abiyev Gulluzadeh Namazov Abbasov Sadiqov Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Azimov Ter-Petrosian Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Gukasian Ohanian Kocharian Dashnak Party (NK) Dashnak Party (ARM) Sarkisian Gagic & Zarubian Oligarchy Babayan Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Margaryan 16 Forecasted Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders

17 17 Currently, Russia, Iran, and the OSCE support the current provisional status. On the other hand, Turkey strongly supports Azerbaijani claims. The OSCE is expected to make a small shift towards granting N-K independent status. All other foreign groups, except Russia, are likely to offer compromises in response. Ultimately, despite OSCE support for independent status, Russia, Iran, and Turkey will remain opposed to any resolution of the conflict. International Stakeholder Positions

18 Current Positions: International Stakeholders N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Grey Wolf Iran AZ Community Turkey Govt Turkey Military Obali Turkish Opp. To ARM open border Turkish Business. For ARM open border Russian Oil Companies Cheney DOD NSC DOE Turkish Business. For ARM open border Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRGC Rafsanjani OSCE Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Russian FSB Surkov Medvedev Kasprzyk Rushaylo Russian MoD State Duma AAA ARM Pro-Indep w/ Russia Kirkorian ANCA Pro-Independence ARM Lobby Iran-ARM Community 18 US ARM Amb

19 19 N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted Positions: International Stakeholders US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Grey Wolf Iran AZ Community Turkey Govt Turkey Military Obali Turkish Opp. To ARM open border Russian Oil Companies Cheney DOD NSC DOE Turkish Business. For ARM open border Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRG Rafsanjani OSCE Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Russian FSB Surkov Medvedev Kasprzyk Rushaylo Russian MoD State Duma ARM US Lobby Russia-ARM Diaspora Kirkorian ANCA AAA Iran-ARM Community 19 US ARM Amb

20 20 COA Analysis

21 21 COA 1 – US Backs Armenian Position No substantive progress expected to occur COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijani Position No substantive progress expected to occur A variety of bargaining strategies were explored without substantive progress. Collaboration with Armenians and Azerbaijanis could identify potential targets for further COA testing. Summary of COA Analysis

22 COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Radical Vets NRM Abiyev Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Gulluzadeh Abbasov Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Mammadyarov Azimov Ter-Petrosian Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) Cheney DOD NSC DOE Rice Bryza ARM US Lobby Kirkorian ANCA AAA US ARM Amb Bush

23 N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted COA 1 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Radical Vets NRM Abiyev Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Gulluzadeh Abbasov Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Mammadyarov Azimov Ter-Petrosian Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) Cheney DOD NSC DOE Rice Bryza ARM US Lobby Kirkorian ANCA AAA US ARM Amb Bush

24 COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted COA 1 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions 24 Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Rasizade Aliyev Mammadyarov Azimov Ter-Petrosian Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) DOD Rice Bryza Kirkorian AAA Abiyev Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Rasizade Aliyev Mammadyarov Azimov Abiyev Ter-Petrosian Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) DOD Rice Bryza Kirkorian AAA Bush

25 COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Radical Vets NRM Abiyev Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Gulluzadeh Abbasov Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Mammadyarov Azimov Ter-Petrosian Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) Cheney DOD NSC DOE Rice Bryza ARM US Lobby Kirkorian ANCA AAA US ARM Amb Bush

26 N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted COA 2 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Radical Vets NRM Abiyev Mammadov AZ Community in ARM Gulluzadeh Abbasov Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Usubov Mutilibov Rasizade Aliyev Mekhtiyev Mammadyarov Azimov Republic Party Heritage Party Liberal Progressive Party Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Natl Assembly Speaker Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) Cheney DOD NSC Rice Bryza ARM US Lobby Kirkorian ANCA AAA US ARM Amb Bush Ter-Petrosian DOE

27 COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted COA 2 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Azerbaijani Stakeholders Armenian Stakeholders N-K Stakeholders US Stakeholders Abiyev Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Rasizade Aliyev Mammadyarov Ter-Petrosian Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) DOD Rice Bryza Kirkorian US ARM Amb Bush Abiyev Sadiqov Pashayev Mahmudov Rasizade Aliyev Mammadyarov Sarkisian Gukasian Ohanian Babayan Kocharian Oskanian Dashnak Party (NK) Margaryan Dashnak Party (ARM) DOD Rice Bryza Kirkorian AAA US ARM Amb Bush Ter-Petrosian

28 28

29 29 Current Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study) N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Current Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study) US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Turkey Govt Turkey Military Russian Oil Companies DOD Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRGC OSCE Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Kasprzyk Russian MoD Kirkorian ANCA AAA Turkey Govt Turkey Military Russian Oil Companies DOD Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRGC Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Kasprzyk Russian MoD Kirkorian ANCA AAA 29 OSCE

30 30 Forecasted Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy NK joins Armenia w/ territories N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security guarantees N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor SQ: NK w/ provisional status under Armenia NK Indep status w/ Lechin NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study) US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders US Stakeholders Turkish Stakeholders Iranian Stakeholders OSCE Stakeholders Russian. Stakeholders Turkey Govt Turkey Military Russian Oil Companies DOD Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRGC OSCE Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Kasprzyk Russian MoD Kirkorian ANCA AAA Turkey Govt Turkey Military Russian Oil Companies DOD Bush Rice Bryza Ahmadinejad IRGC Khamenei Putin Russian FM Iranian Military Kasprzyk Russian MoD Kirkorian ANCA AAA 30 OSCE


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