Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Transition in Armenia USAID/E&E/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development February 2005.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Transition in Armenia USAID/E&E/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development February 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Transition in Armenia USAID/E&E/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development February 2005

2 Economic and Democratic Reforms in 2004 Economic Reforms Democratic Reforms EU-15 Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing most advanced. USAID drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004), and EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004). Mac Alb Cro Ser Bos Bul Rom Southern Tier CEE Kos Mont Northern Tier CEE Hun Pol Lat Cze Est Sln Slk Lit Eurasia Rus Tkm Mol Kyr Kaz Uzb Taj Bel Ukr Geo Arm Aze

3 First Stage Economic Reform Second Stage Economic Reform Average of Northern Tier At Graduation First Stage Economic Reform Average of Northern Tier At Graduation Economic Reform in Armenia in 2004 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004 forthcoming) drawing from EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004). Average of Romania & Bulgaria (2002) Large Scale Privatization, 3.3 Price Liberalization, 5.0 Small Scale Privatization, 4.0 Trade and Foreign Exchange, Average of Romania & Bulgaria (2002) Second Stage Economic Reform Infrastructure, 2.3 Non Bank Financial Reform, 2.0 Banking Reform, 2.3 Competition Policy, 2.0 Enterprise Reform,

4 Private Sector Share of GDP % of GDP from Private Sector EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and earlier editions) AzerbaijanGeorgiaArmeniaEurasiaNorthern Tier CEE

5 Democratic Reforms in Armenia in 2003 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002) Civil Society, 3.5 Independent Media, 2.3 Governance / Public Admin, 2.6 Rule of Law, 2.4 Corruption, 1.9 Electoral Process, Average of NT CEE at graduation Civil Society, 3.5 Independent Media, 2.3 Governance / Public Admin, 2.6 Rule of Law, 2.4 Corruption, 1.9 Electoral Process,

6 Democratic Freedoms greater freedoms Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest development of political rights/civil liberties. The data are an aggregation of Freedom Houses political rights and civil liberties indices; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2005 (2005 and previous editions). Northern Tier CEE Armenia Georgia Southern Tier CEE Eurasia Azerbaijan

7 Economic and Democratic Reforms in Armenia Economic Reforms Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing the most advanced. USAID drawing from EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004) & Freedom House, NIT (2004). Democratic Reforms

8

9 Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004); Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest progress in democratic reforms. Democratic Reforms in Armenia Democratic Reforms greater reforms Civil Society Independent Media Governance & Pub. Admin. Rule of LawElectoral ProcessAnti-Corruption

10 Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2004 (2004). Ratings on a 1 to 10, with 10 representing least amount of corruption. Corruption Perceptions in 2004 Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International) ARMENIA 2.0 GEORGIA 1.9 AZERBAIJAN Finland USA Italy El Salvador Brazil Mozambique Sierra Leone Sudan Slovenia Estonia Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Croatia Bosnia & Herz Romania Macedonia Serbia & Mont Albania Belarus Russia Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Ukraine Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Haiti Bangladesh

11 World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004). Bribes in Businesses in Europe &Eurasia % Kyrgyzstan Albania Azerbaijan Georgia Russia Armenia Czech Republic Estonia 1= Never, 6=Always Bribes as Share of Revenue 2002 Bribe Frequency 1999 & Kyrgyzstan Albania Azerbaijan Georgia Russia Armenia Czech Republic Estonia

12 World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004). Share of Captor Firms in 1999 & 2002 % AzerbaijanGeorgiaLithuaniaBosnia & Herz RussiaBulgariaArmenia

13 World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004). Degree of Impact of State Capture in 2002

14 World Bank, Doing Business in 2005 (2004). Starting and Closing a Business Days to Start a Business Years to Close a Business Australia United States 25 Armenia 25 Georgia Russia Slovenia 123 Azerbaijan Brazil Congo Haiti 0 1 Ireland Canada 2 Armenia 3 Azerbaijan 3 United States 3 Georgia Russia Belarus Czech Republic 10 India Days to Register a Business Years to go Through Bankruptcy

15 Economic Performance and Human Capital in USAID, MCP#9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004); Ayyagari, Beck, and Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises across the Globe: A New Database, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3127, (August 2003). Economic Performance Human Capital Southern Tier CEE Ser Cro Alb Rom Bos Mac Bul Mont Northern Tier CEE Lat Lit EstHun Slk Cze Pol Sln Uzb Taj Kyr Tkm Kaz Rus Ukr Mol Eurasia Bel Aze Geo Arm

16 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004), M. Ayyagari, T. Beck, and A. Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises across the Globe: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3127, August SME data no later than Economic Performance Index in Armenia in External Debt % GDP, 3.5 Share of employment in SMEs, 0.5 Export share of GDP, 1.0 FDI pc cumulative, 1.5 GDP as % 89 GDP, Year Avg Inflation, 4.5 Private Sector Share, Average of NT CEE at graduation External Debt % GDP, 3.5 Share of employment in SMEs, 0.5 Export share of GDP, 1.0 FDI pc cumulative, 1.5 GDP as % 89 GDP, Year Avg Inflation, 4.5 Private Sector Share, Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002)

17 1989 = 100 Real GDP as % of 1989 GDP EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004). Georgia Northern Tier CEE Southern Tier CEE Eurasia Armenia Azerbaijan

18 Employment, Real Wages and GDP in Armenia (as % 1989) 1989=100 EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and earlier editions); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (October 2004); and UNECE, Economic Survey of Europe, 2004 No. 2 (2004). GDP Employment in Industry Employment Real Wages

19 Northern Tier CEE Less Baltics 37 Southern Tier CEE 38 Baltics 44 Eurasia Informal Economy in % of the Size of GDP Schneider, Friedrich, The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: First Results over the Period 1999 to 2003 (December 2004). 8 United States 15 Canada 49 Armenia 61 Azerbaijan 68 Georgia 48 El SalvadorBolivia 68 Peru 61

20 Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment US$ per capita EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Poland Lithuania Croatia Bulgaria FYR Macedonia Romania Albania Serbia & Montenegro Bosnia-Herzegovina Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia Turkmenistan Moldova Belarus Ukraine Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Georgia Armenia

21 World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (October 2004). Remittances as % GDP %GDP World Bank 0.2 UNICEF YemenEl SalvadorMexico AlbaniaBosniaSerbia & Montenegro GeorgiaMacedoniaArmenia EMU 9 IMF 10 National Statistics Survey of Republic of Armenia 25 USAID Funded Study

22 In Migration and Out Migration in the World World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Migration and emigration are calculated as residuals from total population change less the natural change in population. Migrants per 1,000 persons E&E High Income LAC EMU

23 Net Migration Rates Migrants per 1,000 persons World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Migration and emigration are calculated as residuals from total population change less the natural change in population. High Income EMU LAC Armenia E&E Kazakhstan Albania

24 World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Missing values were interpolated. Fertility Rates in E&E Children per Woman Tajikistan Replacement Rate = 2.1 Kyrgyzstan Slovenia Uzbekistan Albania ArmeniaAzerbaijan Georgia Russia

25 UNHCR, 2002 Statistics on Asylum-Seekers, Refugees and Others of Concern to UNHCR (2002). Refugees are foreign persons granted humanitarian status or temporary protection as recognized by the 1951 UN Refugee Convention. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are citizens who have been displaced from their homes and are under the protection of the UNHCR. Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) By Country of Origin Refugees and IDPs per 1,000 Persons Bosnia-Herz Croatia Georgia Serbia-Mont Tajikistan Liberia Afghanistan Somalia Lebanon 31 0 Colombia IDPsRefugees Azerbaijan Armenia

26 Human Capital Index in Armenia in Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004). Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002) Secondary School Enrollment, 2.0 Public Expenditure Education, 0.5 Life Expectancy, 4.5 Under 5 Mortality, 3.0 Public Expenditure Health, 0.5 Per Capita Income, Average of NT CEE at graduation Secondary School Enrollment, 2.0 Public Expenditure Education, 0.5 Life Expectancy, 4.5 Under 5 Mortality, 3.0 Public Expenditure Health, 0.5 Per Capita Income,

27 Life Expectancy at Birth Years for total Population a. World Bank estimate. b. UNICEF estimate. World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (April 2004). Missing data were estimated by interpolation. Northern Tier CEE Armenia Southern Tier CEE Georgia Eurasia

28 Infant Mortality Rates Per 1,000 Live Births World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (April 2004). West NIS consists of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine Northern Tier CEE Southern Tier CEE Russia West NIS Georgia Central Asian Republics Azerbaijan Armenia

29 Poverty in Armenia % IMF, Republic of Armenia: 2004 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria (December 2004) TotalYerevanOther urban RuralTotalYerevanOther urban Rural 98/ / Extreme Poverty Overall Poverty

30 Tuberculosis Incidence TB Cases per 100,000 persons WHO, European Health for All Database (2004). EU-15 Georgia Slovenia ARMENIA Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Romania Russia Ukraine

31 Public Expenditure on Health % GDP Romania Czech Republic ARMENIA Georgia OECD EMU UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004); World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Azerbaijan

32 Smoking Prevalence in Adults in World Health Organization; Tobacco Control Database E&E is a sample of 19 countries. Percentage France E&E MaleFemale ArmeniaUkraineSerbia-Mon.AzerbaijanCzech Male FemaleMaleFemale MaleFemale MaleFemale MaleFemale MaleFemale Denmark MaleFemale UK MaleFemale

33 Tuberculosis Incidence TB Cases per 100,000 persons WHO, European Health for All Database (2004). EU-15 Armenia Kazakhstan Romania Kyrgyzstan Georgia Ukraine Slovenia Russia Azerbaijan

34 Public Expenditure on Education % GDP OECD Developing Countries UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004); World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Romania Poland ARMENIA Georgia Azerbaijan

35 Secondary School Enrollment % of population Poland Gross rates; general secondary plus vocational/technical secondary combined. UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004). Tajikistan GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Russia Albania Moldova

36 Economic Freedom and Ruling Justly in Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset. The sample consists of 82 countries. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of six indicators: (a) country credit rating; (b) inflation; (c) regulatory quality; (d) fiscal balance; (e) trade policy; and (f) days to start a business. Ruling justly consists of six indicators: (a) control of corruption; (b) rule of law; (c) voice and accountability; (d) government effectiveness; (e) civil liberties; and (f) political rights.

37 Economic Freedom and Investing in People in Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset. The sample consists of 82 countries. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of six indicators: (a) country credit rating; (b) inflation; (c) regulatory quality; (d) fiscal balance; (e) trade policy; and (f) days to start a business. Investing in people consists of four indicators: (a) immunization rate (DPT and measles); (b) primary education completion rate; (c) public primary education spending; and (d) public expenditure on health.

38 Armenia & MCA in Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. The Sample consists of 82 countries. Data are drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset. Economic Freedom Median Ruling Justly Median Investing in People Median


Download ppt "The Transition in Armenia USAID/E&E/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development February 2005."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google