1. ARMENIA: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES Shavarsh Kocharyan Member of the Parliament Prepared for the Fourth International AIPRG conference on Armenia: Public Sector Governance and Economic Efficiency January 14-15, 2005 World Bank Washington, DC

2. Table 1. World population growth CenturyYearsWorld population (x 10 9 ) Number of years Average annual growth (x 10 6 ) Annual growth / 1000 people I-XIX 10,3~ 1 000 0000,00030,001 18041 0,40,6 1927212385 19603333012 XX19744147120 19875137717 19996128315 XXI 20026,2337713 20257,9227611 20509,125486 XXI - XXX 2001-30006144100061382

3. Table 2. 67 Countries of total 192, where population in sum makes up 80 million Singapore (4,4 x 10 6 ), Uruguay, Lebanon, Libya, Liberia, Albania, Armenia, Congo, Panama, Mauritania, Mongolia, Jamaica, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Latvia, Lesotho, Bhutan, Macedonia, Slovenia, Kuwait, Namibia, Botswana, Estonia, Zambia, Trinidad and Tobago, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius, Swaziland, Guyana, Fiji, Cyprus, Comoros, Djibouti, Bahrain, Qatar, Equatorial Guinea, Solomon Islands, Luxemburg, Cape Verde, Surinam, Malta, Brunei, Bagams, Maldives, Barbados, Belize, Vanuatu, Samoa, Santa Lucia, Island, Sao Tome and Principe, Micronesia, Santa Vincentia and Grenadines, Tonga, Grenada, Kiribati, Andorra, Seychelles, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Marshall Islands, Monaco, Lichtenstein, San Marino, Palau, Nauru, Tuvalu (11 600).

4. Table 3. Population of three countries (x109) and their percentage in the worlds population Country180420042050 China0,3 (30 percent)1,30 (20 percent)1,4 (15 percent) India0,2 (20 percent)1,07 (17 percent)1,6 (18 percent) The USA0,006 (0,6 percent)0,29 (4,6 percent)0,42(4,6 percent)

5. Table 4. Population growth by continents Continent1950 Population X 10 6 20002050 Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Asia14373688157536846 Africa2278032541845130 Europe54673034642- 12 South America11134821448038 North America22148712072248 Australia and Oceania 123115845 World25556085138910450

6. Table 5. World population percentage by continents Continent195020002050 Asia56,260,658,9 Africa8,913,220,3 Europe21,412,07,0 South America4,35,75,3 North America8,68,07,9 Australia and Oceania4,70,5

7. Table 6. Countries with rapid population growth ContinentCountry Population (x10 6 ) Times increased 20002050 Africa Uganda23,3132,75,7 Madagascar15,565,54,2 Guinea7,528,73,8 Burundi6,122,93,8 Congo52,0183,23,5 Nigeria123,3356,52,9 Asia Yemen17,571,14,1 Oman2,58,33,3 Afghanistan25,981,93,2 Tajikistan6,416,62,6 Pakistan141,6295,02,1 Nepal24,753,32,2 Laos5,513,22,3 Cambodia12,225,12,1 Malaysia21,843,12,0 Philippines81,2147,61,8 America Paraguay5,614,62,6 Nicaragua4,89,42,0 Guatemala12,622,81,8 Australia and Oceania Papua New Guinea4,910,72,2

8. Table 7. Population decline (growth) in democratic countries CountryPopulation (x10 6 )Growth * (percent) 20052050 Japan127,499,9- 22 (-20) Italy58,150,4-13 (-34) Spain40,335,6- 12 (-27) Germany82,473,6- 11 (-31) Portugal10,69,9- 7 (-28) The USA295,7420,1+ 42 Israel6,38,5+ 35 Ireland4,05,4+ 35 Canada32,841,4+ 26 Australia20,124,2+ 20 * - forecast of 2006, in brackets - 2000

9. Table 8. Median age in 2003 Europe37,7 North America35,4 Oceania30,7 Asia26,1 South America24,2 Africa18,3 World26,4

10. Table 9. Population aging and family Indicator EuropeArmenia 19902002 First marriage rate for women below 50 77%62%50% Mean age of woman at first marriage24,226,523,2 Mean age of woman at birth of first child 24,425,922,4 Total fertility rates (children per a woman) 1,81,51,2 Extra-marital births15%28%13% Divorces26%32%7%

11. Table 10. Lowest and highest population growth rates in member states of Council of Europe in 2002 CountryNatural growthImmigrationTotal growth Ukraine-7-8 Georgia0-6 Bulgaria-60 Russia-71-6 Latvia-5-6 Lithuania-3-4 Estonia-40 Moldova-2-3 Romania-30 Serbia-30 France415 Norway246 Switzerland178 Portugal178 Azerbaijan808 Italy066 Turkey14216 Spain11516 Albania11516 Ireland8917

12. Table 11. Lowest and highest total fertility rates in member states of Council of Europe Country Fertility rate (children per 1 woman) Turkey2,46 Albania2,20 Ireland1,97 Iceland1,93 France1,88 Macedonia1,77 Norway1,75 Netherlands1,73 Denmark1,73 Finland1,72 Europe1,50 Bosnia and Herzegovina1,23 Belarus1,21 Slovenia1,21 Moldova1,21 Bulgaria1,21 Armenia1,21 Slovakia1,19 San Marino1,19 Czech Republic1,17 Ukraine1,13

13. Table 12. Population in Armenia YearPopulation (x10 6 )Average annual growth Annual growth / 1000 people 19131,0-- 19401,3+11 000+9,6 19702,5+40 000+16,7 19893,5+53 000+17,7 20013,0-42 000-13,0

14. Table 13. Population in Armenia and other regional countries Country Population in 1970 Population in 1990 Population in 2005 2050 X 10 6 Population X 10 6 Growth (percent) Armenia2,53,53,0 0 Georgia4,75,44,73,8-20 Azerbaijan5,27,17,910,7+35 Iran29,049,868,089,7+32 Turkey35,055,569,786,5+24 Russia131,0147,7143,4110,1-23

15. Table 14. Demography of Council of Europes regional member states Countries Fertilit y rate Natural growth Migration Population growth Aged 15-64 / + 65 Median age 2000 / 2050 Armenia 1,20,2-0,3-0,15,630,4 / 53,4 Azerbaijan 1,60,8-0,10,78,826,7 / 47,2 Georgia 1,40-0,7 4,134,8 / 49,2 Russia 1,3-0,70,1-0,64,336,8 / 50,0 Turkey 2,51,40,21,610,5 Europe 1,5-0,010,240,23537,7 / 50,0

16. Table 15. Population decline (growth) in democratic countries CountryPopulation (x10 6 )Growth * (percent) 20052050 Japan127,499,9- 22 (-20) Italy58,150,4-13 (-34) Spain40,335,6- 12 (-27) Germany82,473,6- 11 (-31) Portugal10,69,9- 7 (-28) The USA295,7420,1+ 42 Israel6,38,5+ 35 Ireland4,05,4+ 35 Canada32,841,4+ 26 Australia20,124,2+ 20

17. Thank you for your attention!