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ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 1 [Per IRC Approved Proposals 3/27/01, Scenario 2.0/3.7] ITRS IRC/ITWG Meeting ORTC Proposal Review.

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Presentation on theme: "ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 1 [Per IRC Approved Proposals 3/27/01, Scenario 2.0/3.7] ITRS IRC/ITWG Meeting ORTC Proposal Review."— Presentation transcript:

1 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 1 [Per IRC Approved Proposals 3/27/01, Scenario 2.0/3.7] ITRS IRC/ITWG Meeting ORTC Proposal Review Grenoble - 4/25/2001 Draft Rev 10b, 04/19/01

2 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 2 MOS Transistor Scaling (1974 to present) S=0.7 [0.5x per 2 nodes] Pitch Gate

3 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 3 Scaling Calculator 250 -> 180 -> 130 -> 90 -> 65 -> 45 -> 32 -> 22 -> x 0.7x NN+1N+2

4 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 4 ITRS Approved Scenario Proposal (3/27/00 Telecon) Scenarios 2.0(DRAM), 3.7(MPU), 3.x (ASIC/Low Power*) the DRAM Half-pitch (HP) should remain on a 3-year-cycle trend after 130nm/2001 (Sc 2.0). – the MPU HP may be on a 2-year-cycle trend until 90nm/2004, and then remain equal to DRAM HP Sc 2.0 on a 3-year cycle (Sc 3.7). –the MPU (HP) Printed (PrGL) and Physical (PhGL) Gate Length will be on 2-year-cycle trends until 45nm and 32nm, respectively, at year 2005, and then parallel to the DRAM/MPU HP trends on a 3-year cycle (Sc 3.7). –the ASIC/Low Power* HP/GL to be negotiated and added by Taiwan/Europe/Japan IRC/TWGs at Grenoble 4/26,27 ITRS meetings. [*Note: ASIC/Low Power Half-pitch and Gate Lengths may lag most aggressive MPU High-Performance HPs/GLs by 1-2 years]

5 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 5 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues /1999 DRAM Half-Pitch Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) Scenario 2.0/DRAM 3.7/MPU (2- yr cycle M/A HP & G.L. 2005) Sc 3.7 MPU Half-Pitch (1-year Lag Thru 2002, then equal to DRAM after 2004) Most Aggressive Sc 3.7 = 2-yr 05 MPU Printed (PrGL) & Physical (PhGL) Gate Length cycle DRAM Sc 2.0 = 3-yr cycle after Year Node Cycle

6 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish Renewal ORTC DRAM and MPU Technology Node Tables 1a,b [ITRS Typical Table Header Format ]

7 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish Renewal ORTC ASIC Technology Node Tables 1aa,ba [ITRS ASIC/Low Power Chapter Table Header Format ]

8 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 8 DRAM Chip size ITRS ORTC Update Proposal [Sc. 2.0] 2000 Update [Sc. 2.0 /3.7 ] [Approved for use in 2001 Renewal w/MPU Sc. 3.7] ISSCC/Feb2001: 4Gb DRAM, 645mm2, [0.15u2 ave cell area] (ITRS: 0.13u2/2001)

9 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 9 MPU Chip size ITRS ORTC Update Proposal [ Sc. 2.0 vs 3.7 ] 572mm2 Litho Field Size 286mm2 2 per Field Size 800mm2 Litho Field Size 310mm2 340mm2 170mm2 85mm2 42mm2 Sc 3.7: Flat Thru 2004

10 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 10 SRAM A-Factors for Simple 6T SRAM Cell using Microprocessor Logic CMOS Process Technology Average A-Factor = Historical A-factor Reduction Rate Ave = 0.967x = -3.3% CAGR [1999 ITRS Target: -7% CAGR**] Historical A-factor Reduction Rate Ave = 0.913x = -8.7% CAGR ** 1.2x/4yrs affordable MPU chip size 2x/2yrs Transistors/chip Function 0.5x/3yrs Technology Node (f) Reduction 2.43 u u u u u u2 Cell Size (u2)

11 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 11 Chip Function Density Trend Chart - ITRS Proposal 3.7 S S S S L L L L = ASIC Gate (4t), eSRAM (6t) (Design TWG) ITRS Chip Size Model Proposal: Sc 2.0/DRAM [no change]; Sc 3.7/MPU Proposal: Li = MPU 4t Gate; Ai = ASIC 4t Gate; Si = 6t SRAM cell; St = SRAM transistor Li Ai Si St Ai Li Si St

12 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 12 MPU Max Chip Frequency - ITRS GL Proposal Sc 3.7 Log Frequency Ghz/4.2nm ITRS Sc w/Innovation* : 2x/2yrs.6 Ghz/180nm.3 Ghz/350nm 4.8Ghz/22nm 9.6Ghz/11nm 2.4Ghz/45nm Ghz/32nm Ghz/90nm 1.7Ghz/65nm Non-Gate-Length Performance Innovation* Historical: Freq = 2x/2yrs ; GL =.71x/yr Sc 3.7 w/o Innov.*: Freq = 2x/4yrs ; GL =.71x/2yr Freq = 2x/6yrs ; GL =.71x/3yr

13 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 13 ITRS Table Definitions/Guidelines Proposal Rev0, 10/02/00 [As Presented in IRC/Taiwan 12/06/01] Technology Requirements Perspective - Near-Term Years : First Yr. Ref.+ 6 yrs Fcast (ex through 2007), annually - Long-Term Years : Following 9 years (ex.: 2010, 2013, and 2016), every 3 years Technology Node : - General indices of technology development. - Approximately 70% of the preceding node, 50% of 2 preceding nodes. - Each step represents the creation of significant technology progress - Example: DRAM half pitches: 130, 90, 65, 45, 32, 22, 16 nm - Smallest 1/2 pitch among DRAM, ASIC, MPU, etc Year of Production: - The volume = 10K units (devices)/month. ASICs manufactured by same process technology are granted as same devices - Beginning of manufacturing by a company and another company starts production within 3 months Technology Requirements Color: -: Manufacturable Solutions are NOT known - : Manufacturable Solutions are known - : Manufacturable Solutions exist, and they are being optimized - Red cannot exist in the next three years (2002, 2003, 2004) ** - Yellow cannot exist the next year (2002) ** Red Yellow White ** Exception [By Review/Approval of IRC]: Solution NOT known, but does not prevent Production manufacturing

14 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 14 Backup: DRAM Chip Size Model (Sc. 2.0) MPU Chip Size Model (Sc. 3.7) Scenario Graphs History; Sc 2.0; Sc 2.0; Sc 3.0; Sc 4.0; Sc 3.5 Fabless Semi Assoc. (FSA) Node Roadmap Backup Articles –UMC 130nm/70nm ; –IEDM; –EUV Consortium; –Samsung 90nm Litho; –Samsung 4Gb ISSCC Roadmap Definitions/Guidelines

15 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 15

16 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 16

17 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 17 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues... (Including MPU/ASICPhysical Gate Length) / Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Physical 2000 Update ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS History, incl Update Sc 2.0 and Node Corrections

18 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 18 (Including MPU/ASICPhysical Gate Length) ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues / Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size MPU/ASIC Gate Physical 2000 Update 2-Year Node Cycle Sc 2.0 (1-yr DRAM HP Node pull-in;.7x Node Trend correction; 1-yr PhG.L. Lead) Samsung 01/30/01 Press Release: 90nm H.P./1G DRAM

19 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 19 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues / Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Physical 2000 Update;In Resist Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate Physical Sc 2.0 ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) 16 XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX 22 MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size 2-Year Node Cycle Sc 2.0 (PrG.L =.7 x DRAM HP; 1- yr PhG.L. lead)

20 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 20 2-Year Node Cycle Scenario 3.0 (2- yr G.L. Pull-in); 3-yr Node/G.L. cycle Sc yr G.L. pull-in Scenario /00 Press Releases: 130nm H.P./70nm G.L ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) 11 XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX 22 3-Year Node Cycle DRAM, M/A HP > 2001

21 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 21 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues / Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) 11 12/00 Press Releases: 130nm H.P./70nm G.L Scenario 4.0 (2-yr FSA* Node Goals), Sc 3.5 (1-yr lag M/A HP, G.L.) 12/00 IEDM demo: 65nm H.P./32nm PrG.L into mfg FSA* Feb 01 Presentation: Fabless Semiconductor / Foundry Goals for Nodes: 180nm/1999; 130nm/ nm/2003; 65nm/2005 FSA* Node Goals *FSA = Fabless Semiconductor Association MPU/ASIC Half-Pitch (1- year Lag) FSA* Feb 01 Presentation: Fabless Semiconductor / Foundry Goals for Logic H.P: 180nm/2000; 130nm/ nm/2004; 65nm/ Year Node Cycle

22 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 22 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues /1999 DRAM Half-Pitch Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) /00 Press Releases: 130nm H.P./70nm G.L Scenario 3.5 (1-yr Lag, 2-yr cycle M/A HP, G.L.) 12/00 IEDM demo: 65nm H.P./32nm PrG.L into mfg MPU/ASIC Half-Pitch (1- year Lag) FSA* Feb 01 Presentation: Fabless Semiconductor / Foundry Goals for Logic H.P: 180nm/2000; 130nm/ nm/2004; 65nm/2006 Most Aggressive Sc 3.5 = 2-yr; M/A H.P.;MPU Pr&Ph G.L. cycle DRAM Sc 2.0/3.5 = 3-yr Samsung 01/30/01 Press Release: 90nm H.P./1G DRAM Year Node Cycle

23 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 23 ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues /1999 DRAM Half-Pitch Year of Production Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) Renewal Period Update, Sc 2.0 MPU/ASIC Gate In Resist 1999 ITRS Technology Node (DRAM Half Pitch) MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size XX 90 XX 65 XX 45 XX 32 XX ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) /00 Press Releases: 130nm H.P./70nm G.L Scenario 2.0/DRAM 3.7/MPU (2- yr cycle M/A HP & G.L. 2005) Most Aggressive Sc 3.7 = 2-yr 05 MPU H.P.; MPU PrG.L. & PhG.L. cycle DRAM Sc 2.0/3.7 = 3-yr 2-Year Node Cycle MPU Half-Pitch (1-year Lag Through 2002, then equal to DRAM) FSA* Feb 01 Presentation: Fabless Semiconductor / Foundry Goals for Logic H.P: 180nm/2000; 130nm/ nm/2004; then 3-yr cycle 3-Year Node Cycle Sc 3.7 MPU HP > /00 IEDM demo: 65nm H.P./32nm PrG.L into mfg Samsung 01/30/01 Press Release: 90nm H.P./1G DRAM

24 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 24 Technology Acceleration: Foundry Lead Moving from 8 inch to 12 inch wafers gives you 125 percent more chips. Source: From Criticized to Respected to Preferred Presentation,, 2/06/01 - Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) Website, Author: Jodi Shelton, FSA Executive Director >

25 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 25 Technology Acceleration: Foundry Lead Moving from 8 inch to 12 inch wafers gives you 125 percent more chips. Source: From Criticized to Respected to Preferred Presentation,, 2/06/01 - Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) Website, Author: Jodi Shelton, FSA Executive Director > 2.0-yr cycle continue ? 2-yr cycle 1-yr cycle 3-yr cycle 2-yr cycle 1-yr cycle 07/65nm ITRS Sc. 2.0: Fabless Foundries: Note: nm Half Pitch Isol. Line = 35nm PrGL; 32nm PhGL FSA Node Goals - Sc 4.0: 2-yr cycle continues

26 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 26 Technology Acceleration: Foundry Lead Moving from 8 inch to 12 inch wafers gives you 125 percent more chips. Source: From Criticized to Respected to Preferred Presentation,, 2/06/01 - Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) Website, Author: Jodi Shelton, FSA Executive Director > Logic HP LEAD FSA Node Goals - Sc 4.0 Actual Logic Half-Pitch Forecast: 2002/130nm; 2006/65nm (2-yr cycle) Actual Logic Half-Pitch (1-Year Lag) - Sc 3.5

27 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 27 UMC plans 70nm gates using phase- shifting and 248nm lithography Semiconductor Business News (01/18/01 15:09 p.m. PST)... UMC plans 70nm gates using phase-shifting and 248nm lithography Semiconductor Business News (01/18/01 15:09 p.m. PST)...Plans to ramp production of 0.07µm (70-nanometer) physical gate- length transistors for processor-class products, using phase-shifting mask (PSM) technology from Numerical Technologies with its 0.13µm logic process with existing 248nm deep UV lithography tools, starting later this year in 200mm fabs. Will use for processors with transistor switching speeds <9 picoseconds. Chose PSM route because 193nm litho tools would not be production ready for MPU-class gate lengths under 100 nm. UMC WorldLogic 0.13µm process technologies Gate-lengthApplication 0.12µm120nmvery low leakage devices 0.10µm100nmlow leakage devices 0.09µm90nmstandard speed devices 0.07µm70nmmicroprocessors (MPUs)...

28 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 28 Chip makers under pressure to develop high-k dielectric - EE Times Article 12/15/00...Semiconductor manufacturers may be years away from their coveted goal of developing a high-k gate dielectric that will replace silicon dioxide and meet future performance and power-consumption targets, even as SiO 2 is reaching its limits, according to researchers at IEDM. Intel set the tone for the gate-oxide scaling debate - researcher Robert Chao said transistors with 30-nm[32] LG, and a gate oxide of just 8Å (0.8- nm), conceivably could be made in 2005, when the 70-nm[65] technology node moves into manufacturing ….

29 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish gigahertz or bust (Cnet - Feb 15, 2001)..Ultimately (in the 2005 time frame ) we will manufacture microprocessors based on 30-nanometer [32] transistors, and EUV lithography will be a critical component of that manufacturing process. The processors that result from this will operate at around 10GHz …EUV lithography is scheduled to support IC manufacturing at the 70-nanometer [65] technology node. This requires preproduction tools for process development in late 2003 or early 2004 and production tools in 2005 … (Cnet interview with Charles Gwyn, general manager and program director of the Extreme Ultraviolet LLC consortium) *For more...

30 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 30 Samsung targets 1-Gb DRAM production in '02 using new 193-nm resist ( Semiconductor Business News -01/30/01)...Samsung said the photoresist enables mass production of 1-Gbit memories with 0.09-micron [02?] and below design rules [04 per IRC, 2/26/01 telecon] [Sc G: ISSCC/Intro(180nm, 400mm2)/1999; Production(100nm, 157mm2)/2003].... The 193-nm resist is expected to enable device shrinks down to the micron level, according to Samsung…. [Sc. 2.0: 130nm/01, 115nm/02; 100nm/03, 90nm/04; 70nm/06, 65nm/07; 50nm/09, 45nm/10; 35nm/12, 32nm/013; 25nm/15, 22nm/016] … The company said it eventually plans to use the new compound and 193-nm scanners to produce 64-Gbit DRAMs with ArF lithography… [Sc G: ISSCC(57nm-45nm, mm2)/ ; Intro(35-32nm, mm2)/ ; Production(25-22nm, mm2)/ ]

31 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 31 ISSCC: Samsung Reveals 4Gbit DDR SDRAM Prototype (Electronic News - Feb, 2001) Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. has busted the DRAM density barrier with a prototype DDR SDRAM chip that has four times as many transistors as anything ever made before, according to the Korea-based company. Samsung engineers have managed to squeeze more than 4 billion transistors onto a single chip, said Hongil Yoon, a senior Samsung engineer, today at the ISSCC in San Francisco. The chip uses a twisted open bitline architecture, and measures a whopping 645 square millimeters, or 1 square inch [25.4mm square, 0.150u2 ave cell area x.90 (est. cell area efficiency) = cell area; using 0.10u design rule* => a=15; versus ITRS 2000 Update: a=8, f=0.13u, af^2 = in 2001]. *For more...

32 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 32 Rev 6 ITRS Scenario Proposal - Scenario 3.5 MPU/ASIC Half-pitch Correction Additional careful evaluation of the Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) Sc 4.0 Node goals suggests that the actual MPU/ASIC (M/A) half- pitch should lag the FSA Node goals by 1 year. This is more consistent historically [2-year lag, accelerating to a 1-year lag, crossing over in future (2005) per conclusions at the Taiwan ITRS meeting]. Therefore, please review an attached proposal M/A Sc 3.5 table line items for a more correct proposal for the M/A half-pitch and the associated M/A Sc 3.5 Printed (PrGL) and Physical (PrGL Gate Lengths. For continuity, additional graphs are included to show the progression from Sc 2.0 -> Sc 2.0 -> Sc 3.0 -> Sc 4.0(FSA Node Goals) -> M/A Sc 3.5 Also included are the FSA Node Roadmap w/ Sc 3.5 M/A half-pitch analysis and the other collateral backup articles reviewed at the 2/26 (Asia) and 2/28 (Eur) IRC Teleconferences.

33 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 33 ITRS Table [2000 Update] Definitions/Guidelines, Proposal Rev1, 7/11/00 [As Presented in 2000 Update/Taiwan 12/06/01] Technology Requirements Perspective - Near-Term Years : First Yr. Ref.+ 6 yrs Fcast (ex through 2005), annually - Long-Term Years : Following 9 years (ex.: 2008, 2011, and 2014), every 3 years Technology Node : - General indices of technology development. - Approximately 70% of the preceding node, 50% of 2 preceding nodes. - Each step represents the creation of significant technology progress - Example: DRAM half pitches (2000 ITRS) of 180, 130, 90, 65, 45 and 33 nm *Year 2000 : Smallest 1/2 pitch among DRAM, ASIC, MPU, etc Year of Production: - The volume = *10K units (devices)/month. ASICs manufactured by same process technology are granted as same devices - Beginning of manufacturing by *a company and another company starts production within 3 months Technology Requirements Color : -: Manufacturable Solutions are NOT known - : Manufacturable Solutions are known - : Manufacturable Solutions exist, and they are being optimized *Year 2000 : Red cannot exist in next 3 years (2000, 2001, 2002)** *Year 2000 : Yellow cannot exist in next 1 year (2000) Red Yellow White ** Exception: Solution NOT known, but does not prevent Production manufacturing

34 ITRS 2001 Renewal - Work in Progress - Do Not Publish 34 Sc 2.0/3.7: DRAM Will Continue to Lead Half-Pitch Nodes [DRAM 3-yr HP after 2001, MPU HP 2-yr-cycle through 2004, then 3-yr-cycle; MPU GL 2-yr-cycle GL through 2005; ASIC/Lo-Power HP/GL Line Items to be developed and added at Grenoble 4/26,27/2001] DR HP DR HP FSA HP M/A HP M/A HP M/A HP MPU HP Sc 1.5 Pr /00 Ph Sc 2.0 Pr /00 Ph Sc 2.0Pr /00 Ph Sc 3.0 Pr /00 Ph Sc 3.7 Pr MPU Ph [Sc. 2.0/3.7] Sc 2.0/DRAM, 3.7/MPU Approved 3/27 Sc 2.0/DRAM, 3.0/MPU 2/26 IRC Telecon; Sc 3.7 Approved by IRC Review 3/27/01 Rev 8, 3/27/01


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