1. THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM THREAT Episode II. OBJECTIVES, METHOD, TASKS Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Konstantyn Atoyev

2. New Testment St Luka 10:19 «Behold, I give unto you power to tread on serpents and scorpions, and over all the power of the enemy; and nothing shall by any means hurt you.»

3. OBJECTIVES The Tragedy in the USA has illuminated Two Problems:

4. The problem of early recognition of risks and identification and ran- king of critical factors, which deter- mine rare events realisation. The problem of minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population.

5. The therrorist attack and mass outbreak of anthrax spreading through the letters have shown that even the events with negligible value of risk can indeed occur. Moreover even if the realization of rare events causes by oneself local hazard, its combination with media hypes leads to a strong multiple effect.

6. September, 11 Chernobyl, 1986 Even the events with negligible value of risk can indeed occur Problems Early risk recognition Identification and ranking of critical factors, determining rare events realisation Minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population Rare Events

7. It can cause essential damage such as public fear, undermining of public trust to regulators up to collapse of economics, depending on its state. So now we have the principle new threats for society connected with rare event realization.

8. In this case the task of early recognition of risks and identification and ranking of critical factors, which determine rare events, took one of the central place in modern risk analysis.

9. One of the most distinctive features in the study of such events is difficulty in choice of adequate mathematical appa- ratus for their investigation.

10. Indeed, the traditional methods or risk estimation were elaborated on the basis of theory of probability. For instance the risk of some disease is determined as ratio of total amount of patients with this diseases to total population.

11. CATASTROPHES’s THEORYSTATISTICS Mathematical Methods RISK ASSESSMENT Probability Approximation to the bifur- cation values of parameters RESTRICTIONS Sample’s completeness Unique character of event UNITS

12. However, the theory of probability can- not be correctly utilized for risk assess- ment in some cases, especially with the absence or incompleteness of data due to unique character of event.

13. The bioterrorism as phenomena is con- nected not only with bio-medical and epidemiological threats, but also deter- mined by complex ecological, econo- mical, mental and social peculiarities of concrete country and time. METHOD

14. Each bioterrorist act and all problems associated with its consequences have individual features.

15. That is why it is not correctly to utilize for risk assessment of bioterrorist act in one country the statistical data received under other conditions in various countries.

16. In this case widespread gets under- standing that the unique and single character of so sophisticated subject as bioterrotist attack and its consequences does not allow in some cases to use correctly the theory of probability for risk assessment.

17. There is another approach to risk assessment, which may prove to be more useful here. It allows not only risk estimation, but also description of the quantitative characteristic of reserve possibilities of the system and its components [10-14].

18. Risk estimation is carried out using the theory of smooth functions [15] allowing the determination of critical parameter values which describe the levels of control system intensities and reserve possibilities. The risk is estimated on a degree of the system parameter approximation of the bifurcation values, which characterize the system’s transition from one steady state (norm), to another (catastrophe).

19. APPLICATIONS FORECASTING CONTROLCONTROL OPTIMIZATION ANALYSISANALYSIS MICRO- BIOLOGY ECONO MICS SOCIAL POLITICS BIOTER- RORISM EPIDEMI- OLOGY HEALTH CARE ECOSYSTEMS DECIGN MAKING DANGEROUS OBJECTS This approach was utili- zed for following tasks: TASKS: FIELDS RISK ASSES- SMENT

20. Norm The threat of bioterrorsm The shit of high risk The shit of middle risk Economical index Bio-medical index

21. The state of society is examined as complex interrelations in “hexagon of security”, which is determined by following factors: epidemiological, social, medico-biological, ecological, mental, economical

22. Economical threats Ecological threats Social threats Mental threats Epidemiological threats Medico-biolo- gical threats

23. All arsenal of threats, including bioterrorism, have the potential to upset intricate balance that exist within the “hexagon of security” by either altering the environment, economics social and epidemiological situation or upsetting mental and medico-biological spheres.

24. The disbalance within the hexagon of security is the most formidable threat, that we all must do our best to prevent, as it leads to transition from one system’s steady state (norm), to another (crisis or catastrophe). The dynamics of these system parameters is determined with the help of dynamic modeling.

25. The main advantage of this approach is the determination of risk dynamics as the function of dynamic variables of the investigated system. It also allows to identify the weakest link of system and the areas that need improvement [10-14].

26. 1. Information characterizing interre- lations in “hexagon of security” is inputted from Data Bases. ALGORITHM OF RISK ASSESSMENT 2. The indices characterizing these interrelations are estimated by means of developed mathematical models with the help of inputted data.

27. 4. Restoration possibilities of each of considered systems are estimated by remoteness of parameter characterizing appropriate index from its bifurcation value. 3. The bifurcation values of the para- meters, characterizing the balance dis- turbanses in the “hexagon of security” are calculated.

28. MAIN TASKS The computer technology for assessment of bioterrorism threat and minimization the effects of terrorist acts on civilian populations, including the risk of various epidemic spreading. should allow to solve the following tasks:

29. Investigation of bioterrorist threat dynamics on the basis of risk assessment of bioterrorist attack and forecasting of the terrorist act consequences depending on interrelations “hexagon of security” TASK 1.

30. Determination of impacts, minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population, specifically the optimal means redistribution to increase the efficacy of bioterrorist acts prevention and elaboration the recommendations for their consequence liquidation. TASK 2.

31. The ranking of different world regions on the degree of bioterrorist threat and damage after potential bioterrorist attacks. TASK 3.

32. MAIN ADVANTAGE The main advantage of this approach is the determination of bioterrorist attack risk dynamics as the function of dynamic variables, characterizing the interrelations in the “hexagon of security” (social, economical, political, ecological, epidemiological and biomedical).

33. 1. Identification of the weakest link under various scenarios of bioterrorist attacks and means redistribution for help to national services responsible for bioterrorist attacks prevention and liquidation of their consequences. It allows to solve the following tasks:

34. 2. Identification of the weakest link and area of needed improvement and ranking countries on their weakness and vulnerability to possible bioterrorist attack and evaluation of capability to respond effectively to the threat of bioterrorism and to deal with consequences of terrorist attack.

35. 3. Investigation of bioterrorist threat dynamics on the basis of risk assessment of bioterrorist attack and forecasting of the terrorist act consequences depending on economical, social and ecological situation.

36. 4. Determination of effective impacts (controls), minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian populations.

37. This lecture is based on 10. Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development // Asses- sment and management of environmental risks: methods and applications in eastern European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001, pp. 195-202 11. Atoyev K., Rykhtovsky V. Computer technology for health risk estimation and mana- gement // “Foresight and Precaution” ESREL 2000 and SRAEurope ANNUAL CONFERENCE (Edinburg 2000), Belcema Publishers, 2000, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 109-115

38. 12.Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development // Asses- sment and management of environmental risks: methods and applications in eastern European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001, pp. 195-202 13. Аtoyev K., Slesarev Yu. Epidemiological Risk Management in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development// Proc. SRA-2001 Annual Meeting, “Risk Analysis in an Interconnected World” Seattle, WA

39. 14. Atoyev K. New Approaches to Epidemiological Risk Assessment Management // Supercourse: Epidemiology, the Internet and Global Health.- Pittsburgh: Disease Monitoring and Telecommunication WHO Collaborating Center, 2002. 15. Guastello, S.J. (1988) The organizational security subsystem: some potentially catastrophic events, Behavioral Science 33, 48-58.