1. PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION INDEX: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance Authors Team: THE PAPER MAY NOT BE PRESENTED AT THE CONGRESS SESSION IN BUENOS AIRES PARTLY FOR REASONS OF TIME SHORTAGE AND PARTLY BECAUSE THE AUTHORS THEAM IS NOT COMPLETELY SATISFIED WITH THEIR RESEARCH Initially Prepared for Presentation at: WAPOR Annual Congress, 2015 (Buenos Aires, Argentina) Note: The Authors team on this paper may not present it at the WAPOR Congress in Buenos Aires; their research is still in progress. The paper is nevertheless shared with our Invited Commentators, to seek their informal feedback. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Panel Paper # 4 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

2. Page 1 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS This Presentation has 3 Sections. Section # 1 Describes Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Section # 2 is Global Corruption Barometer and Section # 3 is Conclusions: Reflections on the process to develop a Global Index Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

3. Page 2 Section #1: CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX (CPI) WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

4. Page 3 CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX is an annual publication. It has been released every year from 1995 to 2014. The Corruption Perceptions Index aggregates data from a number of different sources that provide perceptions of business people and country experts of the level of corruption in the public sector. Each source is standardized to be compatible with other available sources, for aggregation to the CPI scale. The CPI provides an annual ranking of countries according to perceived levels of public sector corruption. The latest ranking in 2014 included 175 countries. The CPI invites widespread public comment every year. Background WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

5. Page 4 1995: 41 countries were ranked 1996: 54 countries were ranked 1997: 52 countries were ranked 1998: 85 countries were ranked 1999: 99 countries were ranked 2000: 90 countries were ranked 2001: 91 countries were ranked 2002: 102 countries were ranked 2003: 133 countries were ranked 2004: 146 countries were ranked 2005: 159 countries were ranked 2006: 163 countries were ranked 2007: 180 countries were ranked 2008: 180 countries were ranked 2009: 180 countries were ranked 2010: 178 countries were ranked 2011: 183 countries were ranked 2012: 176 countries were ranked 2013: 177 countries were ranked 2014: 175 countries were ranked CPI by the Years WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

6. Page 5 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005 African Development Bank Governance Ratings YES Bertelsmann Foundation Sustainable Governance Indicators YES Bertelsmann Foundation Transformation Index YES Economist Intelligence Unit Country Risk Ratings YES Freedom House Nations in Transit YES Global Insight Country Risk Ratings YES IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook YES Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Asian Intelligence YES Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide YES World Bank - Country Policy and Institutional Assessment YES World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) YES World Justice Project Rule of Law Index YES Transparency International Bribe Payers Survey YES Asian Development Bank Country Performance Assessment YES African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments YES World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report YES Merchant International Group Grey Area Dynamics YES UNECA Africa Governance Report YES World Markets Research Centre YES State Capacity Survey by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network YES Information International Survey of Middle Eastern Businesspeople YES World Bank and the EBRD Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey A multilateral development bank Survey Gallup International on behalf of Transparency International Corruption survey PricewaterhouseCoopers Opacity Index World Bank World Business Environment Survey World Economic Forum Africa Competitiveness Report International Crime Victim Survey World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Gallup International 50th Anniversary Survey Wall Street Journal, Central European Economic Review Annual Survey World Bank/Basel University World Development Report, Private Sector Survey Internet Corruption Ranking, Göttingen University Impulse, Peter Neumann DRI/McGraw-Hill Global Risk Service 1980 survey from Business International, New York Sources used in CPIs during 1995-2014 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

7. Page 6 2004200320022001 200019991998199719961995 African Development Bank Governance Ratings Bertelsmann Foundation Sustainable Governance Indicators Bertelsmann Foundation Transformation Index Economist Intelligence Unit Country Risk Ratings YES Freedom House Nations in Transit YES Global Insight Country Risk Ratings IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook YES Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Asian Intelligence YES Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide YES World Bank - Country Policy and Institutional Assessment World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) World Justice Project Rule of Law Index Transparency International Bribe Payers Survey Asian Development Bank Country Performance Assessment African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report YES Merchant International Group Grey Area Dynamics YES UNECA Africa Governance Report World Markets Research Centre YES State Capacity Survey by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network YES Information International Survey of Middle Eastern Businesspeople YES World Bank and the EBRD Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey YES A multilateral development bank Survey YES Gallup International on behalf of Transparency International Corruption survey YES PricewaterhouseCoopers Opacity Index YES World Bank World Business Environment Survey YES World Economic Forum Africa Competitiveness Report YES International Crime Victim Survey YES World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development YES Gallup International 50th Anniversary Survey YES Wall Street Journal, Central European Economic Review Annual Survey YES World Bank/Basel University World Development Report, Private Sector Survey YES Internet Corruption Ranking, Göttingen University YES Impulse, Peter Neumann YES DRI/McGraw-Hill Global Risk Service YES 1980 survey from Business International, New York YES WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

8. Page 7 CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 125Denmark 248New Zealand 335Finland 424Sweden 58Norway 511Switzerland 76Singapore 823Netherlands 913Luxembourg 1030Canada 1131Australia 1227Germany 1234Iceland 1438United Kingdom 1533Belgium 1539Japan 1795Barbados 1716Hong Kong 1736Ireland 1718United States 2174Chile 2181Uruguay 2326Austria 2469Bahamas 2510United Arab Emirates 2661Estonia 2637France 261Qatar 29118 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 30142Bhutan 3193Botswana 3154Cyprus 3155Portugal 3164Puerto Rico 3568Poland 35*Taiwan 3747Israel 3745Spain 39120Dominica 3962Lithuania 3953Slovenia 42145Cape Verde 43 Korea (South) 4372Latvia 4356Malta 4365Seychelles 47102Costa Rica 4770Hungary 4786Mauritius 50139Georgia 5071Malaysia 50148Samoa 5357Czech Republic 5459Slovakia 5540Bahrain 55110Jordan 55169Lesotho 55124Namibia 55200Rwanda CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 5519Saudi Arabia 6176Croatia 61163Ghana 6382Cuba 6420Oman 64112The FYR of Macedonia 6483Turkey 675Kuwait 67106South Africa 6998Brazil 6996Bulgaria 6960Greece 6941Italy 6984Romania 69185Senegal 69146Swaziland 76101Montenegro 76173Sao Tome and Principe 78107Serbia 79117Tunisia 80190Benin 80123Bosnia and Herzegovina 80137El Salvador 80129Mongolia 80140Morocco 85194Burkina Faso 85151India 85130Jamaica 85114Peru 85133Philippines Comparison of CPI* and GNI**-Per Capita Ranking * Source CPI Ranking: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 ** Source GNI-Per Capita Ranking: World Bank GNIPC (Gross National Income Per Capita) Ranking 2013 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

9. Page 8 Comparison of CPI and GNI-Per Capita Ranking CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 85125Sri Lanka 85103Thailand 8558Trinidad and Tobago 85165Zambia 94131Armenia 94108Colombia 94115Egypt 9488Gabon 94209Liberia 9480Panama 100104Algeria 100109China 10092Suriname 103147Bolivia 10391Mexico 103155Moldova 103208Niger 107*Argentina 107*Djibouti 107126Indonesia 110121Albania 110116Ecuador 110202Ethiopia 110127Kosovo 110211Malawi 115*Côte d´Ivoire 115111Dominican Republic 115138Guatemala 115198Mali 11989Belarus CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 119207Mozambique 119192Sierra Leone 119183Tanzania 119156Vietnam 124144Guyana 124176Mauritania 12690Azerbaijan 126196Gambia 126162Honduras 12677Kazakhstan 126184Nepal 126157Pakistan 126204Togo 133203Madagascar 133161Nicaragua 133134Timor-Leste 136179Cameroon 13694Iran 136172Kyrgyzstan 13687Lebanon 136150Nigeria 13663Russia 142199Comoros 142195Uganda 142128Ukraine 145168Bangladesh 145206Guinea 145177Kenya 145*Laos 145181Papua New Guinea CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 150213Central African Republic 150135Paraguay 152159Congo Republic 152182Tajikistan 154186Chad 154212Democratic Republic of Congo 156174Cambodia 156*Myanmar 156192Zimbabwe 159210Burundi 159*Syria 161140Angola 161201Guinea-Bissau 161191Haiti 16185Venezuela 161164Yemen 166204Eritrea 166*Libya 166153Uzbekistan 169105Turkmenistan 17097Iraq 171188South Sudan 172187Afghanistan 173167Sudan 174*Korea (North) 174*Somalia As seen by the comparison, if we take a group of countries, the CPI and GNI-Per Capita ranks match within blocks of about 30 nation groups, except for some exceptions. These findings need to be examined thoroughly. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

10. Page 9 Section #2: GLOBAL CORRUPTION BAROMETER WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

11. Page 10 GLOBAL CORRUPTION BAROMETER is an international survey by Transparency International that has been conducted 8 times between 2003 and 2015 (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010/2011, 2013.) Global Corruption Barometer 2013 was based on 12 questions. However, public discourse normally focuses on the first question in the survey. Our paper has done extensive analysis on the Barometer as a measure of net increase in corruption perception over the years in different countries. Background WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

12. Page 11 List of Questions for Global Corruption Barometer 2013 Q1 Over the past 2 years, how has the level of corruption in this country changed? Q2 To what extent do you think that corruption is a problem in the public sector in this country? Q3 In your dealings with the public sector, how important are personal contacts to get things done Q4 To what extent is this country's government run by a few big entities acting in their own best interests Q5 How effective do you think your government's actions are in the fight against corruption Q6 Perceptions of corruption, by institution Q7 Have you paid a bribe to any one of 8 services listed in the past 12 months Q8 What was the most common reason for paying the bribe/bribes? Q9 Can ordinary people make a difference in the fight against corruption? Q10 Are you willing to get involved in the fight against corruption? Q11 Reporting corruption Q12 Refusing to pay a bribe WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

13. Page 12 Public comment about the Global Corruption Barometer focuses on the opening question: “Over the past 2 years, how has the level of corruption in this country changed?” (Increased a lot; Increased a little; Stayed the same; Decreased a little; Decreased a lot) Net Score: % Increase - % Decrease WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

14. Page 13 Year Change in Net figure 2013 minus 2003 20032013 Net Afghanistan *10- Albania *57- Algeria *83- Argentina *63- Armenia *25- Australia *54- Austria 35*- Azerbaijan *-13- Bangladesh *33- Belarus **- Belgium *-40- Bolivia 254116 Bosnia and Herzegovina 75750 Brazil *30- Bulgaria -41923 Burundi *61- Cambodia *-25- Cameroon 3516-19 Canada 224322 Chile *48- China **- Colombia -364076 Costa Rica 2*- Croatia -25-817 Cyprus *66- Czech Republic *50- Democratic Republic of the Congo *55- Denmark 2422-2 Dominican Republic 16*- Ecuador **- Egypt *49- El Salvador *42- Estonia *28- Ethiopia *8- Fiji *-14- Finland 27336 France *65- Georgia 45-58-103 Germany 244925 Ghana *34- Global 223513 Greece *39- Guatemala -10*- Hong Kong 28*- Hungary *54- Iceland **- India 6663-3 Indonesia -3764101 Iraq *44- Ireland -15*- Israel 5032-18 Italy 196041 Jamaica *46- Japan 25-5-30 Jordan *22- Kazakhstan *12- Kenya *20- Korea (South) 2526 Kosovo *58- Kyrgyzstan *28- Latvia *13- Lebanon *79- Liberia *51- Libya *15- Lithuania *56- Luxembourg 283911 Macedonia 1411-3 Madagascar *41- Malawi *61- Malaysia 142511 Maldives *40- Mexico 286335 Moldova *61- Mongolia *30- Morocco *45- Mozambique *42- Nepal *66- Netherlands 55*- New Zealand *60- Nicaragua **- Nigeria 67569 Norway3837 Pakistan246440 Palestine*17- Panama23*- Papua New Guinea *56- Paraguay*54- Peru203212 Philippines*-6- Poland29*- Portugal177457 Romania295728 Russia38391 Rwanda*-83- Senegal*47- Serbia*-47- Sierra Leone*24- Singapore**- Slovakia*46- Slovenia*53- Solomon Islands*52- South Africa215837 South Korea**- South Sudan*-3- Spain276134 Sri Lanka*46- Sudan*-23- Sweden28*- Switzerland3329-4 Taiwan*-58- Tanzania*52- Thailand*57- Togo**- Tunisia*74- Turkey4526-19 Uganda*65- Ukraine*54- United Kingdom365822 United States154934 Uruguay*20- Vanuatu*74- Venezuela*49- Vietnam*37- Yemen*35- Zambia*21- Zimbabwe*64- Source: Global Barometer on Corruption WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

15. Page 14 PERCEPTION ON WHETHER CORRUPTION INCREASED NET FIGURE ON HAS CORRUPTION INCREASED IN YOUR VIEW (Net figure = Increased minus Decreased) Country 200320042005200720112013 Afghanistan****4410 Albania*19*-5*57 Algeria*****83 Argentina*-722395463 Armenia****3525 Australia****4954 Austria3541214937* Azerbaijan****25-13 Bangladesh****1033 Belarus****2* Belgium*****-40 Bolivia2576172541 Bosnia and Herzegovina7-1557514957 Brazil*23**5530 Bulgaria-4-3270319 Burundi****8361 Cambodia**39513-25 Cameroon352860424716 Canada221954375743 Chile**42*4448 China****22* Colombia-36*-2183640 Costa Rica27076*** Croatia-25-10341247-8 Cyprus*****66 Czech Republic*1839253050 Democratic Republic of the Congo ****6755 Denmark242034332622 Dominican Republic16*7126** Country200320042005200720112013 Ecuador*708022** Egypt*****49 El Salvador****3042 Estonia*11***28 Ethiopia**41*-78 Fiji****-17-14 Finland273923394333 France*2141195965 Georgia45-56-26*-68-58 Germany245359536449 Ghana*-2726-3034 Global222846344235 Greece*54407139 Guatemala-10555055** Hong Kong2810-5170* Hungary****7254 Iceland*33425738* India667277836463 Indonesia-37-50-12371664 Iraq****7344 Ireland-15-926357* Israel504677*7232 Italy 1934404560 Jamaica *****46 Japan 2529405231-5 Jordan *****22 Kazakhstan *****12 Kenya *-6-18*-920 Korea (South) -7*13825 Kosovo *-2734-136658 Kyrgyzstan *****28 Latvia ***4613 Source: Global Barometer on CorruptionContinued……. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

16. Page 15 Source: Global Barometer on Corruption Country 200320042005200720112013 Lebanon ****7679 Liberia ****2251 Libya *****15 Lithuania *954105556 Luxembourg 28 30493039 Macedonia 14846-282111 Madagascar *****41 Malawi ****3561 Malaysia 14-217452625 Maldives****4640 Mexico285248*6963 Moldova*34 474061 Mongolia****6630 Morocco****245 Mozambique****3442 Nepal****4866 Netherlands5554566546* New Zealand****6960 Nicaragua**75*** Nigeria63456-335575 Norway385451565537 Pakistan244559487164 Palestine****-3717 Panama23*5551** Papua New Guinea****7956 Paraguay**51**54 Peru204065187032 Philippines*56776063-6 Poland292059123* Portugal174063448074 Romania29-111828657 Russia382455304439 Rwanda****-33-83 Senegal**19568247 Serbia**352 -47 Country 200320042005200720112013 Sierra Leone****-2324 Singapore*-12-9-610* Slovakia*****46 Slovenia****6853 Solomon Islands****5052 South Africa21-353413958 South Korea**28*** South Sudan****50-3 Spain272439327061 Sri Lanka****1746 Sudan****50-23 Sweden28**51** Switzerland333942364729 Taiwan*248*19-58 Tanzania****4352 Thailand**2741-1057 Togo**43*** Tunisia*****74 Turkey45-64223126 Uganda****4665 Ukraine*1428202254 United Kingdom363147576458 United States152454536649 Uruguay*-749**20 Vanuatu****5074 Venezuela*1859117949 Vietnam****4537 Yemen****6635 Zambia****5521 Zimbabwe****2964 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

17. Page 16 Section #3: CONCLUSIONS: Reflections on the process to develop a Global Index WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

18. Page 17 A. SIMPLICITY The idea of a global indicator based on a small set of Perception Questions was a simple but novel idea which caught the imagination of the world. The annual (or periodic) ranking of nations by TI has made positive contribution towards the cause of Good Governance. B. MEDIA The TI studies on Corruption are one of the most widely publicized annual studies. Their success in attracting attention among citizens and policy makers provides important learnings for development of policy relevant global indices of perceptions. The following lessons are worth noting. The Media exposure sucked in political incumbents and Challengers into the Debate. Trending the Rank Order on a Yearly basis made. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

19. Page 18 PROMISE The Simplicity of the Index combined with the Ranking of Nations, and Trending on an Annual basis, lies at the heart of the success of TI studies on corruption. In order to sustain the success of TI studies on corruption we need to engage in Scientific Review of the Validity of the Index as well as Accuracy of Ranking Exercise in terms of statistical validity of Ranked positions among the Universe of polled countries. We would like to engage the WAPOR community in this exercise. significant contribution. The simple 5 point Index emerging out of one Perception Question(Has Corruption Increased Declined or Remained the Same) became a Politically Sensitive Number in many Countries. Has their Rank among Nations risen or fallen could put governments in the dock or permit them room to celebrate. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

20. THANK YOU