Presentation on theme: "Chapter Preview Starting in the 1970s, the world became a riskier place for financial institutions. Interest rate volatility increased, as did the stock."— Presentation transcript:
0 Hedging with Financial Chapter 24Hedging with FinancialDerivatives
1 Chapter PreviewStarting in the 1970s, the world became a riskier place for financial institutions. Interest rate volatility increased, as did the stock and bond markets. Financial innovation helped with the development of derivatives. But if improperly used, derivatives can dramatically increase the risk institutions face.
2 Chapter PreviewIn this chapter, we look at the most important derivatives that managers of financial institution use to manage risk. We examine how the markets for these derivatives work and how the products are used by financial managers to reduce risk. Topics include:HedgingForward MarketsFinancial Futures Markets
3 Chapter Preview (cont.) Stock Index FuturesOptionsInterest-Rate SwapsCredit Derivatives
4 HedgingHedging involves engaging in a financial transaction that reduces or eliminates risk.Definitionslong position: an asset which is purchased or ownedshort position: an asset which must be delivered to a third party as a future date, or an asset which is borrowed and sold, but must be replaced in the future
5 HedgingHedging risk involves engaging in a financial transaction that offsets a long position by taking an additional short position, or offsets a short position by taking an additional long position.We will examine how this is specifically accomplished in different financial markets.
6 Forward MarketsForward contracts are agreements by two parties to engage in a financial transaction at a future point in time. Although the contract can be written however the parties want, the contact usually includes:The exact assets to be delivered by one party, including the location of deliveryThe price paid for the assets by the other partyThe date when the assets and cash will be exchanged
7 Forward Markets An Example of an Interest-Rate Contract First National Bank agrees to deliver $5 million in face value of 6% Treasury bonds maturing in 2032Rock Solid Insurance Company agrees to pay $5 million for the bondsFNB and Rock Solid agree to complete the transaction one year from today at the FNB headquarters in town
8 Forward Markets Long Position Short Position Agree to buy securities at future dateHedges by locking in future interest rate of funds coming in future, avoiding rate decreasesShort PositionAgree to sell securities at future dateHedges by reducing price risk from increases in interest rates if holding bonds
9 Forward Markets Pros Cons Flexible Lack of liquidity: hard to find a counter-party and thin or non-existent secondary marketSubject to default risk—requires information to screen good from bad risk
10 The Practicing Manager: Hedging Interest Rate Risk with Forwards First National Bank owns $5 million of T-bonds that mature in Because these are long-term bonds, you are exposed to interest-rate risk. How do you hedge this risk?Enter into a forward contract with Rock Solid Insurance company, where Rock Solid agrees to buy the bonds for $5m.
11 The Practicing Manager: Hedging Interest Rate Risk with Forwards First National Bank is hedged against interest-rate increasesRock Solid, on the other hand, has protected itself against rate declines.Both parties can gain or lose, since we don’t know which way rates will actually go in one year. But both are better off. We’ll review the details a bit more…
12 Financial Futures Markets Financial futures contracts are similar to forward contracts in that they are an agreement by two parties to engage in a financial transaction at a future point in time. However, they differ from forward contracts in several significant ways.
13 Financial Futures Markets Financial Futures ContractSpecifies delivery of type of security at future dateArbitrage: at expiration date, price of contract = price of the underlying asset deliveredi , long contract has loss, short contract has profitHedging similar to forwards: micro versus macro hedgeTraded on ExchangesGlobal competition regulated by CFTC
14 Example: Hedging Interest Rate Risk Revisited A manager has a long position in Treasury bonds. She wishes to hedge again interest rate increases, and uses T-bond futures to do this:Her portfolio is worth $5,000,000Futures contracts have an underlying value of $100,000, so she must short 50 contracts.
15 Example: Hedging Interest Rate Risk As interest rates increase over the next 12 months, the value of the bond portfolio drops by almost $1,000,000.However, the T-bond contract also dropped almost $1,000,000 in value, and the short position means the contact pays off that amount.Losses in the spot T-bond market are offset by gains in the T-bond futures market.You can see all of the details of this example in the book, on page 589.
16 Financial Futures Markets The previous example is a micro hedge—hedging the value of a specific asset. Macro hedges involve hedging, for example, the entire value of a portfolio, or general prices for production inputs.
17 Financial Futures Markets In the U.S., futures are traded on the CBOT and the CME in Chicago, the NY Futures Exchange, and others.They are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
19 Financial Futures Markets The U.S. exchanges dominated the market for years. However, this isn’t true anymore.The London Int’l Financial Futures Exchange trades Eurodollar futuresThe Tokyo Stock Exchange trades Euroyen and gov’t bond futuresSeveral others as well, as seen next.
21 Financial Futures Markets Success of Futures Over ForwardsFutures are more liquid: standardized contracts that can be tradedDelivery of range of securities reduces the chance that a trader can corner the marketMark to market daily: avoids default riskDon’t have to deliver: cash netting of positions
22 The Hunt Brothers and the Silver Crash In the early 1980s, the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market by buying 300 million ounces of silver. The silver price rose from $6 to $50 an ounce.The exchanges steps in, taking action to eliminate the corner. Silver dropped back to under $10 an ounce.The Hunt brothers lost about $1 billion, a high price for an excursion in to the silver market.
23 Hedging FX RiskExample: A manufacturer expects to be paid 10 million euros in two months for the sale of equipment in Europe. Currently, 1 euro = $1, and the manufacturer would like to lock-in that exchange rate.
24 Hedging FX RiskThe manufacturer can use the FX futures market to accomplish this:The manufacturer sells 10 million euros of futures contracts. Assuming that 1 contract is for $125,000 in euros, the manufacturer takes as short position in 40 contracts.The exchange will require the manufacturer to deposit cash into a margin account. For example, the exchange may require $2,000 per contract, or $80,000.
25 Hedging FX RiskAs the exchange rate fluctuates during the two months, the value of the margin account will fluctuate. If the value in the margin account falls too low, additional funds may be required. This is how the market is marked to market. If additional funds are not deposited when required, the position will be closed by the exchange.
26 Hedging FX RiskAssume that actual exchange rate is 1 euro = $0.96 at the end of the two months. The manufacturer receives the 10 million euros and exchanges them in the spot market for $9,600,000.The manufacturer also closes the margin account, which has $480,000 in it—$400,000 for the changes in exchange rates plus the original $80,000 required by the exchange (assumes no margin calls).In the end, the manufacturer has the $10,000,000 desired from the sale.
27 Hedging FX RiskOf course, the exchange rate could have gone the other way. For example, if the actual exchange rate is 1 euro = $1.04 at the end of the two months, the manufacturer will exchange the 10 million euros for $10,400,000. At the same time, losses in futures market amount to $400,000, netting the same $10,000,000. Just as happy? Probably not. Even though the hedge worked exactly as needed.
28 Stock Index FuturesFinancial institution managers, particularly those that manage mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies, also need to assess their stock market risk, the risk that occurs due to fluctuations in equity market prices.One instrument to hedge this risk is stock index futures.
29 Stock Index FuturesStock index futures are a contract to buy or sell a particular stock index, starting at a given level. Contacts exist for most major indexes, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Russell 2000, etc.The “best” stock futures contract to use is generally determined by the highest correlation between returns to a portfolio and returns to a particular index.
31 Hedging with Stock Index Futures Example: Rock Solid has a stock portfolio worth $100 million, which tracks closely with the S&P 500. The portfolio manager fears that a decline is coming and what to completely hedge the value of the portfolio over the next year. If the S&P is currently at 1,000, how is this accomplished?
32 Hedging with Stock Index Futures Value of the S&P 500 Futures Contract = 250 indexcurrently 250 1,000 = $250,000To hedge $100 million of stocks that move 1 for 1 (perfect correlation) with S&P currently selling at 1000, you would:sell $100 million of index futures = 400 contracts
33 Hedging with Stock Index Futures Suppose after the year, the S&P 500 is at 900 and the portfolio is worth $90 million.futures position is up $10 millionIf instead, the S&P 500 is at 1100 and the portfolio is worth $110 million.futures position is down $10 millionEither way, net position is $100 million
34 Hedging with Stock Index Futures Note that the portfolio is protected from downside risk, the risk that the value in the portfolio will fall. However, to accomplish this, the manager has also eliminated any upside potential.Now we will examine a hedging strategy that protects again downside risk, but does not sacrifice the upside. Of course, this comes at a price!
35 Mini Case: Program Trading and the Market Crash of 1987 In the aftermath of the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987, stock price index futures markets have been accused of being culprits in the market collapse.Program trading between futures and stock prices creates a downward spiral. Other experts blame portfolio insurance, which can have the same affect.Limits on program trading have been implements to reduce this problem in the future.
36 Options Options Contract Right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an instrument at the exercise (strike) price up until expiration date (American) or on expiration date (European).Options are available on a number of financial instruments, including individual stocks, stock indexes, futures, etc.
37 Options on FuturesLong Call at agree to pay $115,000 for a $100,000 Treasury bonds at the end of FebruaryShort Call at agree take $115,000 to deliver a $100,000 Treasury bonds at the end of February
38 Options on Futures Features of Treasury bond futures contract Same expiration date as the futures contractAmerican option - exercisable until the expiration dateThe premium is quoted in points, so each point corresponds to $1,000
39 Options Hedging with Options Buy same number of put option contracts as would sell of futuresDisadvantage: pay premiumAdvantage: protected if i increases, gain on contractif i falls, additional advantage if macro hedge: avoids accounting problems, no losses on optionThe next slide highlights these differences between futures and options
40 Options vs FuturesFigure 24.1 Profits and Losses on Options Versus Futures Contracts
41 Factors Affecting Premium Higher strike price, lower premium on call options and higher premium on put options.Greater term to expiration, higher premiums for both call and put options.Greater price volatility of underlying instrument, higher premiums for both call and put options.
42 Hedging with OptionsExample: Rock Solid has a stock portfolio worth $100 million, which tracks closely with the S&P 500. The portfolio manager fears that a decline is coming and what to completely hedge the value of the portfolio against any downside risk. If the S&P is currently at 1,000, how is this accomplished?
43 Hedging with OptionsValue of the S&P 500 Option Contract = 100 indexcurrently 100 1,000 = $100,000To hedge $100 million of stocks that move 1 for 1 (perfect correlation) with S&P currently selling at 1000, you would:buy $100 million of S&P put options = 1,000 contracts
44 Hedging with OptionsThe premium would depend on the strike price. For example, a strike price of 950 might have a premium of $200 / contract, while a strike price of 900 might have a strike price of only $100.Let’s assume Rock Solid chooses a strike price of 950. Then Rock Solid must pay $200,000 for the position. This is non-refundable and comes out of the portfolio value (now only $99.8 million).
45 Hedging with OptionsSuppose after the year, the S&P 500 is at 900 and the portfolio is worth $89.8 million.options position is up $5 million (since 950 strike price)in net, portfolio is worth $94.8 millionIf instead, the S&P 500 is at 1100 and the portfolio is worth $109.8 million.options position expires worthless, and portfolio is worth $109.8 million
46 Hedging with OptionsNote that the portfolio is protected from any downside risk (the risk that the value in the portfolio will fall ) in excess of $5 million. However, to accomplish this, the manager has to pay a premium upfront of $200,000.
47 Interest-Rate SwapsInterest-rate swaps involve the exchange of one set of interest payments for another set of interest payments, all denominated in the same currency.Simplest type, called a plain vanilla swap, specifies (1) the rates being exchanged, (2) type of payments, and (3) notional amount.
48 Interest-Rate Swap Contract Example Midwest Savings Bank wishes to hedge rate changes by entering into variable-rate contracts.Friendly Finance Company wishes to hedge some of its variable-rate debt with some fixed-rate debt.Notional principle of $1 millionTerm of 10 yearsMidwest SB swaps 7% payment for T-bill + 1% from Friendly Finance Company.
49 Interest-Rate Swap Contract Example Figure 24.2 Interest-Rate Swap Payments
50 Hedging with Interest-Rate Swaps Reduce interest-rate risk for both partiesMidwest converts $1m of fixed rate assets to rate-sensitive assets, RSA, lowers GAPFriendly Finance RSA, lowers GAP
51 Hedging with Interest-Rate Swaps Advantages of swapsReduce risk, no change in balance-sheetLonger term than futures or optionsDisadvantages of swapsLack of liquiditySubject to default riskFinancial intermediaries help reduce disadvantages of swaps (but at a cost!)
52 Credit DerivativesCredit derivatives are a relatively new derivative offering payoffs based on changes in credit conditions along a variety of dimensions. Almost nonexistent twenty years ago, the notional amount of credit derivatives today is in the trillions.
53 Credit DerivativesCredit derivatives can be generally categorized as credit options, credit swaps, and credit-linked notes. We will look at each of these in turn.
54 Credit DerivativesCredit options are like other options, but payoffs are tied to changes in credit conditions.Credit options on debt are tied to changes in credit ratings.Credit options can also be tied to credit spreads. For example, the strike price can be a predetermined spread between AAA-rated and BBB-rated corporate debt.
55 Credit DerivativesCredit options are like other options, but payoffs are tied to changes in credit conditions.Credit options on debt are tied to changes in credit ratings.Credit options can also be tied to credit spreads. For example, the strike price can be a predetermined spread between BBB-rated corporate debt and T-bonds.
56 Credit DerivativesFor example, suppose you wanted to issue $100,000,000 in debt in six months, and your debt is expected to be rated single-A. Currently, A-rated debt is trading at 100 basis points above the Treasury. You could enter into a credit option on the spread, with a strike price of 100 basis points.
57 Credit DerivativesIf the spread widens, you will, of course, have to issue the debt at a higher-than-expected interest rate. But the additional cost will be offset by the payoff from the option. Like any option, you will have to pay a premium upfront for this protection.
58 Credit DerivativesCredit swaps involve, for example, swapping actual payments on similar-sized loan portfolios. This allows financial institutions to diversify portfolios while still allowing the lenders to specialize in local markets or particular industries.
59 Credit DerivativesAnother form of a credit swap, called a credit default swap, involves option-like payoffs when a basket of loans defaults. For example, the swap may payoff only after the 5th bond in a bond portfolio defaults (or has some other bad credit event).
60 Credit DerivativesCredit-linked notes combine a bond and a credit option. Like any bond, it makes regular interest payments and a final payment including the face value. But the issuer has an option tied to a key variable.
61 Credit DerivativesFor example, GM might issue a bond with a 5% coupon rate. However, the covenants would stipulate that if an index of SUV sales falls by more than 10%, the coupon rate drops to 3%. This would be especially useful if GM was using the bond proceeds to build a new SUV plant.
62 Are derivatives a time bomb? In the 2002 annual report for Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett referred to derivatives (bought for speculation) as “…weapons of mass destruction.” (although also noting that Berkshire uses derivatives). Is he right?
63 Are derivatives a time bomb? There are three major concerns with the use of financial derivatives:Derivatives allow financial institutions to increase their leverage (effectively changing their capital), possibly to take on more riskDerivatives are too complicatedThe derivative positions of some banks exceed their capital—the probability of failure has greatly increased
64 Are derivatives a time bomb? As usual, the blanket comments are usually not accurate. For example, although the notional amount of derivatives exceeds capital, often these are offsetting positions on behalf of clients—the bank has no exposure. In other words, you have to look at each situation individually. Further, actual derivative losses by banks is small, despite a few news-worthy exceptions.
65 Are derivatives a time bomb? Of course, the financial crisis only further illustrates the problem of speculative derivatives. AIG, for example, sought fee revenue from taking the short side of credit default swaps. Unfortunately, when housing prices collapsed, they have to payout on those positions, resulting in billions in losses (to you me in the end!).
66 Are derivatives a time bomb? In the end, derivatives do have their dangers. But so does hiring crooks to run a bank (Lincoln S&L ring a bell). But derivatives have changed the sophistication needed by both managers and regulators to understand the whole picture.
67 Chapter SummaryHedging: the basic idea of entering into an offsetting contract to reduce or eliminate some type of risk was presented.Forward Markets: the basic idea of contracts in this highly specialized market, as well as a simple example of eliminating risk was presented.
68 Chapter Summary (cont.) Financial Futures Markets: these exchange traded markets were presented, as well as their advantages over forward contacts.Stock Index Futures: the specific application of stock index futures was presented, exploring their ability to reduce or eliminate risk for equity portfolios.
69 Chapter Summary (cont.) Options: these contracts, which give the buyer the right but not the obligation to act, were presented, as well as an example showing their costs.Interest-Rate Swaps: the idea of trading fixed-rate interest payments for floating-rate payments was presented, as well as the pros and cons of such contracts.
70 Chapter Summary (cont.) Credit Derivatives: we examine this relatively new market for hedging the credit risk of portfolios and the dangers involved.