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1 The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence Gus Koehler Time Structures

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1 1 The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence Gus Koehler Time Structures

2 2 Overview The Policy Working Groups focus is on blocking structures as wicked problems that impede the creation and movement of actionable intelligence or military technology to the soldier and from the soldier via network centric technology This presentation looks at how networks, structures and their boundariesincluding blocksare created and maintained by the chronocomplexity of policy decisions that regulate the movement of information, energy, and resources. Such relationships are likely to produce wicked problems It is changes in the alignment of barriers and related opening-closing of policy or opportunity windows that creates opportunities. What are such windows and why do they occur? Is there a special role for the policy entrepreneur? We will use the term time-ecology to refer to the networks, and heterochrony to refer to the complex flow of resources, energy, and information. Issues are: –What chronocomplexity related factors contribute to the dynamics of wicked problems that block the movement of military-technology and intelligence to their operational use by a soldier? –How is a policy entrepreneur able to enter, assess, anticipate, and influence the behavior of such a Chronocomplex system using policy windows? –How is a policy windows opened in a chronocomplex system to produce and communicate actionable intelligence or technology when we want to a soldier? Time Structures

3 3 Actionable Intelligence is Dynamic, meaning it involves Time and Trickery Actionable Intelligence is providing commanders and soldiers a level of situational understanding, delivered with speed, accuracy, and timeliness, in order to conduct successful operations Actionable intelligence is not perfect intelligence, as its an expedient intelligence, particularly in terms of being delivered in an expedient way or not Operations involve a strategy of tricking the enemy with well timed and informed tactics into taking a vulnerable position or to prevent us from being so tricked. Time Structures

4 4 Battlefield and Administrative Strategy involve Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from among the large and small things and fast and slow timings find the relevant timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the main strategy, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain. You win in battles with the timing…of cunning by the knowing the enemies timing, and thus using a timing which the enemy does not expect. Shinmen Musashi, A Book of Five Rings (1645). To trick someone is to destroy their boundaries. It is to destroy a boundarys edge by confusing a distinction they are making and the timing they are using to establish and carry it out. Simultaneously, it is the creation of a new boundary, a new distinction, a reshaping of the world. Here we are talking about breaking the boundary of the enemys strategy, of the formation they are using and its timing to create a new battlefield where they no longer exist. Lewis Hyde, Trickster Makes the World (1998). Time Structures

5 5 What is a Time Ecology and Why is it Important? The complex parallel activities, innovation, and feed back relationships of battlefield, simulations, intelligence technology business and services, and legislative processes continuously organize the evolution of the actionable intelligence cluster from top to bottom The full range of linear and nonlinear time/space networked linkages of the battlefield-network- intelligence technology complex creates an interconnected ecologya time-ecologyof growth regulating unique, more or less intense, and often complex rhythmic pulses that occur in parallel sometimes in sync across multiple time scales flowing at varying rates out of the past, through the present and into the future Heterochrony regulates each of the three fundamental elements of growthsize, development, and timeleading to variation in a descendant network, organization, or individual body. Small changes to a component can affect rates of flow, feeding forward or back, varying the entire time-ecology's heterochronic pattern A time-ecology of networked flows could continuously give rise, through appropriately or inappropriately timed interventions to a complex and often emergent aggregate structurea wicked problemthat could not be predicted from its parts. Time Structures

6 6 A Battle of Time Ecologies: Navy Asymmetric Persian Gulf War Game THE GAME: Van Riper had at his disposal a computer-generated flotilla of small boats and planes, many of them civilian, which he kept buzzing around the virtual Persian Gulf in circles as the game was about to get under way. As the US fleet entered the Gulf, Van Riper gave a signal - not in a radio transmission that might have been intercepted, but in a coded message broadcast from the minarets of mosques at the call to prayer. The seemingly harmless pleasure craft and propeller planes suddenly turned deadly, ramming into Blue boats and airfields along the Gulf in scores of al-Qaida-style suicide attacks. Meanwhile, Chinese Silkworm-type cruise missiles fired from some of the small boats sank the US fleet's only aircraft carrier and two marine helicopter carriers. The tactics were reminiscent of the al-Qaida attack on the USS Cole in Yemen two years ago, but the Blue fleet did not seem prepared. Sixteen ships were sunk altogether, along with thousands of marines. If it had really happened, it would have been the worst naval disaster since Pearl Harbor. TIMING: Islamic communication, surprise, inconsistent with US expectations, took advantage of slow background timing of US, used rapid space-time defining movements of small boats TRICKERY: Rapidly moving small, maneuverable boats and planes overcame US Navy ship defensive organization with boundary penetrating strategies. US Navy boundary chopped up into smaller pieces involving multiple new boundaries and new very local rather than extended space-time. "A phrase Van Riper heard over and over and responded to: 'That would never have happened. And I said: nobody would have thought that anyone would fly an airliner into the World Trade Centre... but nobody seemed interested." SUMMARY: Timing and Trickery succeeded on the battlefield in breaking and creating new space-time boundaries Disconnect between this activity, its communication and interpretation at higher organizational levels who had their own notion of time and boundary maintenance. The message did not make it up. Time Structures

7 7 Operations: Tricking the Enemy in Two Time-Ecologies Time Structures Bagdad Time Ecology: flat, high population density, many housing and commercial buildings, roads, ethnic groups conflict, intense street to street fighting, building to building fire fights, snipers, IUD, city business-market-school time, rapid communications on both sides (TV, face to face, radios, cell phones, visual, etc) Afghan-Pakistan Border time-ecology: mountainous, low population density, few housing and commercial buildings, dirt roads, trails, and very local ethnic groups, bandit-war lord-drug lord control, point to point communications, runners to communicate face to face, agrarian time, armored vehicles, extreme flight problems, sudden fire fights, snipers, IUDs, etc.

8 8 The Intelligence-Technology-Battlefield Time-Ecology Battlefield Personal Line of sight Natural-interface Survival and Real-time Timing Trickery Virtual Simulation Idealized-unnatural Non-Biological/addictive Computer icon Avatar life/death Real-to-Simulation time Networked: Hub, Node, Identify Intelligence Technology Organizational survival (100 years) Budget & Legislative cycles Concentration of authority Bureaucratic rules Hierarchical and networked Competition for funds and projects Local time (8hr, home, career, soccer, seasons) Time Structures

9 9 Def: Wicked Problems may have multiple tree shapes: Threading the various timings of development and rates of change produces a different tree and relationships among limbs, etc. Time ambiguity, that is choosing one external temporality or local point as the clock, defines branching, connectivity and causality.. Wicked problem: an emergent property of a time- ecology trees shape as formed by its heterochrony Wicked Problem Barriers 1. Uniform development and placement of nodes (children) 2. Uniform application of a single branching rule (angle, folding, etc) 3. Causality one direction only 4. Appears to lack flow 5. Wicked problem at one location 6. Space-time uniform 1. Stem can emerge from generation of children 2. Uniform application of different complex rules can produce different branching and children forms 3. Each child has its own growth rate 4. Connectors or stems have their own size and rate of flows 5. Heterochrony changes in the way it organizes the whole 6.Space-time varies 7.Multiple causal directions Multiple Wicked Problems Barriers (branching rules, bifurcations, etc Time Structures

10 10 Visualizing a Time-Ecology: Video Excerpts of Traffic Regulation

11 11 Time Ecology: Regulation of Policy Windows Battlefield strategy creates an opportunity to take advantage of the enemy through trickery Public policy and policy windows –Movement and realignment by breaking barriers to regulate the flow of energy, resources and information that is external with internal structures that creates an opportunity for changing a policy (budget, elections, policy cycles) via a policy window here to move new scientific technology Natural, social, and now virtual regulation of heterochrony and time budgets is the issue Timing for trickery? Time Structures

12 12 Five Principal Temporalities and Associated Causalities Time is:Propagation in Space is: Past-Present Future Relationship Is: Causality is: Sociotemporal Local ChunkingNetworks via Local or Extended Hubs and Nodes Pst-pres-pres -pst-fut-pst-pst pst... (continuous redefining) Complex Biotemporal Bounded Developmental/Gr owth Local Reproductive Networks Unidirectional Morpho- dynamics Unidirectional Interactive/ Natural Selection Ecological- Terrain Multiple- Interactive Extended and local (ex. climate vs whether) UnidirectionalComplex Physical Laws Eootemporal Now-less flowInverse Square Law and diffusion UnidirectionalDeterministic Virtual No flowElectronically timed by Computer and Sweep Generator No DirectionEootemporal and Programmed Time Structures

13 13 Source: Victoria Koehler-Jones, 1999. Time Structures

14 14 Three Local Times Electronic battlefield is endlessly extended (macro & micro) with unlimited number avatars and tokens in program/computer timed virtual space linked to the biotemporality Space-time battle is highly local (streets, mountain gorges, small-boat-to-Ship) and is embedded in five, layered temporalities that proceed at varying rates out of the past through the present into the future Public policy making is highly local in terms of exercising authority but extended over large distances and many layers encompassing the intelligence industry and constituencies among other factors Five space-time dimensions are causally nested and uniquely placed in all of these time-ecologies Each placement includes a temporal orientation and perspective toward the past, present, and future Wicked problems are local space-time problems embedded in different space-time time budget streams that continuously form developing agents and landscapes according to chronocomplexity dynamics Time Structures

15 15 Time Structures

16 16 Time Structures

17 17 Sociotemporal Extension in Space Sociotemporal extension is interaction beyond ones immediate presence via voice, physical messages, digital or analogues messages, virtual messages, refrigerator magnets Projection of authority over space and time Stretching of socio-political systems across time Movement to one point like Los Angeles from Santa Barbara can take 500 minutes or 100 minutes by car depending on the year Simultaneity of convergence at different space times by class based on mode of transportation (high cost of political participation for the poor or different organizations) Any local patch is deformed by sociotemporal extensions (prune world) Time Structures

18 18 Adjustments to Transportation, Communication, and Information Technologies – Social Consequences and Policy Issues Donald G. Janelle Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science University of California, Santa Space-Time Adjustments to Transportation, Communication, and Information Technologies – Social Consequences and Policy Issues. Donald G. Janelle Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, University of California, Santa Barbara University of Southern California 6 March 2002 Time Structures

19 19 Elements of Complexity Contribute to Wicked Problems Structural complexity: Number of different parts in a time-ecology and their interactions Hierarchical complexity: Number of levels in a hierarchy that makes up the time ecology Functional complexity: –Number of different functions an organism or organization can perform, or –Computational capacity of an organism, organization or device Chronocomplexity: number of heterochronic interactions via tubes within the system including the developmental status of an agent/organization, and between the system and its natural environment Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity Time Structures

20 20 Stretching social time-ecologies across space-time Structural Complexity Hierarchical Complexity Chronocomplexity Functional Complexity Time Structures

21 21 Measures of complexity […] no broad definition has been offered that is both operational, in the sense that it indicates unambiguously how to measure complexity in real systems, and universal, in the sense that it can be applied to all systems. D.W. McShea (1996) Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity Time Structures

22 22 A Closer Look at Three Time Ecologies: 1. Battlefield 2. Battle Field Virtual 3. Government-Private Sector Time Structures

23 23 Policy Windows Move Policy Window Tactics for Both: Dividing Space-Time with Trickery Intelligence Technology Complex: Timing is weeks, months, and years. Battlefield: Time is context-enemy tactics driven from seconds to weeks, months and years Time Structures

24 24 Future Approach B US Soldier: Heterochrony of Nested Temporalities Uneven Time Chunks Future Approach B Moslem Enemy: Heterochrony of Nested Temporalities Past fading B Past Fading A Future Approach A Local Landscape (Spatial-Temporal) Characteristic Entrainment Battlefield: Agent, Pipes, and Landscapes As Complementary fields in Space Time as seen from the Nootemporal Perspective Time Structures

25 25 Time Structures

26 26 A B C A = Pentagon B = Equipment, Other C = Field Operations Exports Diagram of an Pentagon- Industry-Battle Time- Ecology.123356 Organizational or Process Cycle 100+ 10-80 1-9. 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min. Battle Field Foresight Horizon minutes to months Internet Telephone TS PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF PF Organizations Past-Present-Future Orientation TS + Temporal Signature Pentagon Foresight Horizon months to years Time Structures

27 27 Opening of Policy or Opportunity Windows Policy or opportunity windows may open at a far higher frequency than can be easily perceived or analyzed anywhere on the battlefield or at multiple points in the intelligence technology complex time-ecology Very hard to identify policy window opportunities for disrupting boundaries by trickery The following policy window examples are drawn from California state politics Time Structures

28 28 Wickedness Elements Regulating Policy Windows Appropriations process: yearly cycle and variations over time Defense acquisition process: RFP proposal time, awarding, monitoring, reports and related paper and procedural temporalities Legal policy barriers: regulatory definitions and redefinitions Legislative barriers: policy cycles, party cycles, legislative process Intelligence barriers: regulatory and policy barriers varying across levels and agencies Organizational culture: private sector, military, legislative, soldier, enemy, virtual, intelligence, etc Technology Transfer: policy definitions, development and process cycles Deployment barriers: manufacturing cycle, training of users, logistics and rates of movement, etc Political pressure to increase speed of tech development and transfer Organizational barriers: stove-piping, iron-law of oligarchy, funding battles and organizational battles, organizational life-time Time Structures

29 29 Policy Entrepreneurs A policy entrepreneur advocates for proposals or for ideas by changing the direction and flow of politics in multiple, nested political and administrative arenas They join solutions to problems through policy windows when administrations change or other large scale events occur providing favorable political circumstances They increase their chances of success by knowing how to open or close policy windows in a time-ecology They are knowledgeable about policy making, legislative and administrative advocacy, procedures, and implementation Their work is enhanced by policy networks and by working with political groups Time Structures

30 30 Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery A political time-ecology is in a state of punctuated equilibrium with different parts changing at varying rates A time-ecology may directly, or indirectly, influence the choice of strategy used to seek a preferred policy change Time Structures

31 31 Opening a Policy Window Issue A: low priority Long term Legislative Organizational cycle in phase or out of phase? Issue Window Open? Media attention? Heterochronic inputs: campaign funds constituency support term limits Party control Historical Policy Cycle in phase? Current Historical Context Supportive? Org. Or Indiv. Policy Entrepreneur Available? Members Career Cycle in phase with issue and associated with strength of support? Legislative Process.123456 Organizational or Process Cycle 100+ 10-80 1-9. 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min. Time Structures

32 32 Session Conditions: -Staff and member workload re: # bills, and committee assignments - Probability of bill movement given introducing members party Vs. house controlling party - Probability of movement given leadership and Governor priorities and party - Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive, redistributive or regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budget priorities? - Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or not? - Legislative/executive relations? - Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival (double referral)? - Policy cycle place (agenda-setting, formulation, adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to bill and budget deadlines? Legislative Process Legislative Session Determinants Of Opening A Policy Window Heterochronic inputs: - Importance to constituency? - Interest group(s) pressure? - Media publicity? - Gov. agency pressure? - Gov. provider pressure? - NGO(s) pressure? - Federal, state, local gov. pressure? - Campaign resource? - Other historical issues or votes? Enrolled Administration.123456 100+ 10-80 1-9. 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min. Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X) (Issue on Legislative Agenda) End Time Structures

33 33 Opening an Administrative Approval and Implementation Policy Window Admin. Governors Career Cycle favorable and/or consistent with party and policy agenda? Blue pencil probability? Regime cycle favorable? Bill chaptered? Not implemented or incompletely implemented probability? Agency Capacity/Survival probability? Administrative heterochronic inputs: - Budget and personnel requests and cycles - Policy cycle of priorities and direction - Accountability/performance - Media attention - Client satisfaction - Advocacy groups strengths and level of activity Budget and other Gov.. legislation Regulatory adoption/ revision process Provision of Services Time technologies used to implement (visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos 100+ 10-80 1-9. 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min..123456 End New Statute Time Structures

34 34.123456 Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X) 100+ 10-80 1-9. 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min. C Low Tech. Suppliers tt A Prime B High Tech. Suppliers t t t t t t t A Legislation-Admin Business Time-Ecology Regional Economy Legislative/ Administrative Processes Economic Development Programs for Business Time Structures

35 35 Chronocomplexity of Strategic Decision Making is a Wicked Problem Our focus is not on static institutional structures and/or how innovation is blocked The focus here is on hierarchic chronocomplex relationships and emergent policy windows that if aligned, could produce actionable intelligence consistent with battlefield timing and trickery (boundary penetrating and changing) requirements What heterochronic relationships open policy windows that produce actionable intelligence and close those of the enemy? What is the role of the policy entrepreneur at aligning these time ecologies? Can intelligence technology Complex factors be manipulated to meet battle field timing and trickery requirements by a policy entrepreneur? How does chronocomplexity make these relationships and the role of the policy entrepreneur more vulnerable to disruptive timing and trickery? Time Structures

36 36

37 37 Strategies to Break Innovation and Technology Transfer Barriers Producing Actionable Intelligence Time Structures

38 38 Simulations of Chronocomplex Systems "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." -- Buckminster Fuller Time Structures

39 39 Policy Working Group: Next Steps? Flow chart the research, prototyping, approval, procurement, and introduction into the field of appropriate weapon as a time-ecology Flow chart process of identifying soldiers expressed needs and how they are filled; what is delivered to them;and what is not used as a time-ecology Use dialogue mapping with key players at apparent barriers using both flow charts to identify key policy issues and their timing Collect available information and use survey research to determine soldiers needs and what they are likely to use

40 40 Conduct two case studies: successful rapid creation and deployment of a product useful to soldiers and of one that wasnt Policy Group dialogue maps key wicked factors in their time-ecology context, possibly with key players Draft strategy and options to address issues: –Creation of policy entrepreneurs –Policy options to remove specific barriers and causes of delays including those that may require legislation

41 41 Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (1) What to look for: Diagram the time-ecology as a complex system and from the perspective of a policy-entrepreneur who can navigate it Use Dialogue and Issue Mapping by policy entrepreneurs and actors from the involved sectors to identify precursors of a wicked problem and of a policy window opening or closing Wicked problem detection could be carried out autonomous agent simulations using such issue and dialogue maps One way to look: identify and evaluate the rhythms of policy windows, possible paths to them, their disruption, and reasons for their opening or closing linked within their time-ecology Time Structures

42 42 Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (2) Other ways: Determine the extent to which mobility (the consumption of distance)be it physical or digitalis intrinsic to certain types of warfare or policy making as human space-time extensibility Identify and label varying temporal patterns caused by different local time- ecology clocks that create policy windows including their sync frequencies, at multiple levels: neuronal, perceptual, interpretative, translations from virtual to real to virtual; social-interactive, group interactive; machine- human; enemy-soldier, etc; military space-air-machine-individual, etc) Derive and interpret patterns and process of policy making or battlefield local space-time economies and tactics, trickery, etc, including introduction of new intelligence technology relative to soldier operational effectiveness and survival How are new intelligence technologies socially constructed and by whom and then embedded in a time-ecologys distribution of authority, power, and opportunity relative to policy windows Time Structures

43 43 Mapping Time-Ecology Changes Time Slices 3 Observations Colored Lines and dot show emergence of events, and their convergence with other events. Colored shapes in boxes show changing space-time events and their communication pipes as they change their frequencies and sync. Time Structures

44 44 Time Structures

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