1. Gender Differences in Longevity Predictors: Effects of Early-Life and Midlife Conditions on Exceptional Longevity Leonid A. Gavrilov Natalia S. Gavrilova Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA

2. Approach To study “success stories” in long-term avoidance of fatal diseases (survival to 100 years) and factors correlated with this remarkable survival success

3. Winnie ain’t quitting now. Smith G D Int. J. Epidemiol. 2011;40:537-562 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2011; all rights reserved. An example of incredible resilience

4. Studies of centenarians require careful design and serious work on age validation The main problem is to find an appropriate control group

5. Approach Compare centenarians and shorter- lived controls, which are randomly sampled from the same data universe: computerized genealogies

6. Design of the study Compare centenarians with their peers born in the same year but died at age 65 years It is assumed that the majority of deaths at age 65 occur due to chronic diseases related to aging rather than injuries or infectious diseases (confirmed by analysis of available death certificates)

7. Case-control study of longevity Cases - 765 centenarians survived to age 100 and born in USA in 1890-91 Controls – 783 their shorter-lived peers born in USA in 1890-91 and died at age 65 years Method: Multivariate logistic regression Genealogical records were linked to 1900 and 1930 US censuses providing a rich set of variables

8. Age validation is a key moment in human longevity studies Death dates of centenarians were validated using the U.S. Social Security Death Index Birth dates were validated through linkage of centenarian records to early U.S. censuses (when centenarians were children)

9. A typical image of ‘centenarian’ family in 1900 census

10. Genealogies and 1900 and 1930 censuses provide three types of variables Characteristics of early-life conditions Characteristics of midlife conditions Family characteristics

11. Early-life characteristics Type of parental household (farm or non- farm, own or rented), Parental literacy, Parental immigration status Paternal (or head of household) occupation Number of children born/survived by mother Size of parental household in 1900 Region of birth

12. Midlife Characteristics from 1930 census Type of person’s household Availability of radio in household Person’s age at first marriage Person’s occupation (husband’s occupation in the case of women) Industry of occupation Number of children in household Veteran status, Marital status

13. Family Characteristics from genealogy Information on paternal and maternal lifespan Paternal and maternal age at person’s birth, Number of spouses and siblings Birth order Season of birth

14. Example of images from 1930 census (controls)

15. Parental longevity, early-life and midlife conditions and survival to age 100. Men Multivariate logistic regression, N=723 Variable Odds ratio 95% CIP-value Father lived 80+1.841.35-2.51<0.001 Mother lived 80+1.701.25-2.320.001 Farmer in 19301.671.21-2.310.002 Born in North-East2.081.27-3.400.004 Born in the second half of year 1.361.00-1.840.050 Radio in household, 19300.870.63-1.190.374

16. Parental longevity, early-life and midlife conditions and survival to age 100 Women Multivariate logistic regression, N=815 Variable Odds ratio 95% CIP-value Father lived 80+2.191.61-2.98<0.001 Mother lived 80+2.231.66-2.99<0.001 Husband farmer in 19301.150.84-1.560.383 Radio in household, 19301.611.18-2.200.003 Born in the second half of year 1.180.89-1.580.256 Born in the North-East region1.040.62-1.670.857

17. Variables found to be non-significant in multivariate analyses Parental literacy and immigration status, farm childhood, size of household in 1900, percentage of survived children (for mother) – a proxy for child mortality, sibship size, father-farmer in 1900 Marital status, veteran status, childlessness, age at first marriage Paternal and maternal age at birth, loss of parent before 1910

18. Conclusions Both midlife and early-life conditions affect survival to age 100 Parental longevity turned out to be the strongest predictor of survival to age 100 Men are likely to be more sensitive to the effects of early-life conditions.

19. Mortality patterns of men and women suggest that women may have more reserves (redundancy) compared to men in terms of reliability theory of aging U.S. population, 1999

20. Failure Rate as a Function of Age in Systems with Different Redundancy Levels Failure of elements is random

21. Possible explanation from the reliability theory of aging point of view Men are likely to have less reserves (lower redundancy) compared to women Organisms with lower redundancy may be more vulnerable to external shocks early in life, which deplete further their low reserves Hence men are more sensitive to the effects of early-life conditions.

22. References Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life Childhood Conditions, Mid- Life Environment and Parental Characteristics. In: 2014 Living to 100 Monograph [published online – August, 2014, http://livingto100.soa.org/]. The Society of Actuaries, 2014, 18 pages Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Determinants of exceptional human longevity: new ideas and findings. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2013, 11: 291-323 Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Biodemography of exceptional longevity: Early-life and mid-life predictors of human longevity. Biodemography and Social Biology, 2012, 58(1):14-39, DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2012.666121

23. Acknowledgment This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the National Institute on Aging grant #R01AG028620 stimulating working environment at the Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

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25. Final Conclusion The shortest conclusion was suggested in the title of the New York Times article about this study