PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies.
Presentation on theme: "PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION"— Presentation transcript:
1 PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein — Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses& Director, CNA China Studies
2 POINT 1THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO.
3 FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN 1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR“MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD”PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLACAPABILITIES-BASED&CONTINGENCYBASEDFORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN
4 CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORMENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORMLESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIAMAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004
5 BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR “LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPESHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOMEHIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPOLOGISTICS-INTENSIVEC4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESSOPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONSNON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREASPRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS
7 PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS” “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION ” & “IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS”New Data from D.J.from Dennis 23 Oct 09 Dave and friends, the SCMP article Scot passed around is derived from the two articles I sent to Dave yesterday (below, both having the same content, one in English and the other in Chinese from PLA Daily). The sentence "Northwest Chinais China’s important strategic direction " "西北是我国重要战略方向"caught my eye. My question is how does the "northwest" compare to th "southeast (Taiwan/SCS)" in terms of strategic direction? We had Considered the "southeast" as the "main strategic direction" based on changes in the 90s. Now with cross-strait tensions lessening and the rise of Islamic extremism, separatism, and terrorrism in the northwest (the "three evils") are we seeing the beginning of a change in the "main strategic direction"? I assume you guys have researched the term "重要战略方向" more than I have and can compare this useage to previous references. DennisLiang Guanglie: to boost innovative development of national defense mobilization constructionLiang Guanglie, member of the Central Military Commission (CMC), state councilor and defense minister, stressed at the 5th plenary meeting of the National Defense Mobilization Committee of the Lanzhou Military Area Command (MAC) of the PLA that the surrounding environment and the conditions for national defense mobilization construction are seeing profound changes in the new century and the new period, the national defense mobilizationSystem must hold high the great banner of the socialism with Chinese characteristics, stick to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of the “Three Represents”, implement the scientific outlook on development in a deep-going way and constantly boost the innovative development of national defense mobilization construction.In Shaanxi Province, Liang Guanglie listened to the reports of Shaanxi Province and Yan’an City on national defense mobilization. In Gansu Province, Liang Guanglie went to militia companies to learn situations on infrastructure building. In Qinghai Province, Liang Guanglie watched video on national defense mobilization construction of five provinces(autonomous regions) in Northwest China and viewed and emulated the research-oriented exercise of Qinghai Province’s national defense mobilization system in implementing stability-maintenance action. Liang Guanglie fully affirmedThe achievements obtained by the Lanzhou Theatre in national defense mobilization construction and urged the national defense mobilization departments at all levels to further enhance the awareness of unexpected development and mission and try to form strong mobilization ability commensurate with maintaining the security and stability of NorthwestChina.Liang Guanglie pointed out that Northwest China is China’s important strategic direction and involves heavy military struggle preparation task. It is imperative to proceed from actual situation to do a good job inMaking a comprehensive arrangement for the construction of battle-meeting and emergent-handling ability, as well as for reserve force and other> mobilization fields.Liang Guanglie stressed that national defense mobilization departmentsAt all levels should be fully aware of the long-time, complexity and hardnessfeature of the struggle with the “three evil forces”, always hold high the banner of maintaining social stability, maintaining socialist legal system, safeguarding the basic interests of the people and safeguarding unity of nationalities, steadfastly fight against the separatist and sabotageactivities of the “three evil forces” and make greater contributions to the long period of peace and stability of Northwest China.Wang Guosheng, commander of the Lanzhou MAC, accompanied Liang Guanglie on the tour. Li Changcai, political commissar of the Lanzhou MAC, and relevant leaders of the five provinces (autonomous regions) in Northwest China were present at the conference. By Han GuoxianPREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDERINFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”
8 POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN…. …THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERSTHE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT “PREPARATIONS FOR MILITARY COMBAT” WOULD DEMAND IT
9 WHY? MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS“BIG POWER” STATUSA MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER“STICK” AS WELL AS “CARROT”EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTSMARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS
10 POINT 3WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI- ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS- FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLA’S PAST.
11 PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRALORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHESOPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNSCONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTSU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASEDFROM RUSSIA
13 SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS COMMISSIONINGPROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATIONPERSONNEL MANAGEMENTNCO CORPSRECRUITMENTDOWNSIZINGUNIT RESTRUCTURINGNEW C2 RELATIONSHIPSEQUIPMENT R & D SYSTEMLOGISTICSFINANCIAL OVERSIGHT
14 DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMY’S WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS…….TO …. SHORT “CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS” TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLA’S BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMY’S MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.
15 PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE FROMTOCOMBINED ARMSJOINT OPERATIONSCONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS)CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS)ENEMY’S WEAK POINTSENEMY’S STRENGTHSEMPHASIS ON DEFENSEPRIMACY OF OFFENSEGROUND FORCE-CENTRICNAVAL AND AEROSPACEABSORBING BLOWSCONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACESOPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTIONNEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM)
16 POINT 4THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL FORCE PROJECTION.
17 2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER HOWEVER….IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN.2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER
18 POINT 5 THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.
19 STRATEGIC REACH NUCLEAR FORCES CYBER WARFARE OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELEDSILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINESQUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSISTCYBER WARFAREPRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYOPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACEINCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACEDEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE
20 POINT 6THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE
21 24 DEC 2004: “NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS” “THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS.”HU JINTAO BECOMESCMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004
22 INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICAHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONSNEW HOSPITAL SHIPUN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONSCOMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONSTURKEY OCTOBER 2010“QUASI-NEO” IN LIBYA 2011FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING
39 DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES RICH-POOR GAP WIDENINGUNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTPEASANTS ARE “LOSERS”BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITYMEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATEGENDER IMBALANCE“GRAYING” POPULATIONENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONRAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALSIRRATIONAL TAX BASEHEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV)POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTERNET GRAIN IMPORTERINCREASINGLY “EMPOWERED” MIDDLE CLASS & ELITEIRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM
40 POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES.IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLEMOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES
42 CCP IS WORRIED FEARFUL OF “THE MASSES” WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTYKNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCEBUT HOW?TO WHAT?HOW FAST?LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVYBEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL
43 FOR THE PRC — SO WHAT?BEIJING’S MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!)FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO—CONTINUE TO “DELIVER” ECONOMIC GROWTHSPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT “LOSERS”ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC)MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITYREQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN “ENGAGED” IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE “A SEAT AT THE TABLE”IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS —ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF “THE MASSES” WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR
44 FOR THE U.S. — SO WHAT?U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH “RISING CHINA” & “CHALLENGED CHINA”STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADEDCANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WARTHAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA
46 2008: PRC BECAME U.S.’S LARGEST CREDITOR OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. DEBTPRC IS U.S.’S 2ND LARGEST TRADE PARTNERLARGEST SOURCE OF IMPORTS TO U.S.3RD LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U.S.U.S. IS LARGEST PRC TRADE PARTNERU.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT MARKET OF PRC
48 “PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON DEVELOPMENT”TextFIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN GIVEN A “MISSION” SEEMINGLY NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPERPEACETIME ORIENTED SEEMINGLY BEYOND CHINA’S BVOERDERS
49 As China’s Global Footprint Expands… …China’s global security interests will also expand. The PLA will likely be called upon more and more for regional security advice.
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