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PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies.

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PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies.

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Presentation on theme: "PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies."— Presentation transcript:

1 PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies

2 THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO. POINT 1

3 1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLA CAPABILITIES-BASED & CONTINGENCYBASED MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN

4 CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM LESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004

5 LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR

6 CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION MSD

7 MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION & IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS PREPARE FOR LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS

8 POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN…. …THE CAPABILITIES- BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERS

9 MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE –IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS BIG POWER STATUS –A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER –STICK AS WELL AS CARROT EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS –MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS WHY?

10 WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI- ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS- FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLAS PAST. POINT 3

11 PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRAL ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHES OPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNS CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED FROM RUSSIA

12 THREE PILLARS OF REFORM 1.HARDWARE & TECHNOLOGIES 2.SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS 3.OPERATIONAL- LEVEL DOCTRINE

13 SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS COMMISSIONING PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT NCO CORPS RECRUITMENT DOWNSIZING UNIT RESTRUCTURING NEW C2 RELATIONSHIPS EQUIPMENT R & D SYSTEM LOGISTICS FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT

14 DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMYS WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS… ….TO …. SHORT CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLAS BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMYS MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.

15 COMBINED ARMSJOINT OPERATIONS CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS) ENEMYS WEAK POINTSENEMYS STRENGTHS EMPHASIS ON DEFENSEPRIMACY OF OFFENSE GROUND FORCE-CENTRICNAVAL AND AEROSPACE ABSORBING BLOWS CONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACES OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM) PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE FROM TO

16 POINT 4 THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL FORCE PROJECTION.

17 HOWEVER…. IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER

18 POINT 5 THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.

19 NUCLEAR FORCES –LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED –SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES –QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST CYBER WARFARE –PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE –INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE –DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE STRATEGIC REACH

20 THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE POINT 6

21 24 DEC 2004: NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS. HU JINTAO BECOMES CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004

22 ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS –NEW HOSPITAL SHIP UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS COMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONS –TURKEY OCTOBER 2010 QUASI-NEO IN LIBYA 2011 FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS

23 POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A PARTY ARMY

24 WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS OBJECTIVES. POINT 8

25 INHIBITORS PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION EDUCATION LEVELS CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS COMPETITION FOR BEST & BRIGHTEST ONLY SON SOLDIERS BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE

26 THE CHINA FACTOR A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

27 Hu Jintao Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou Liang Guanglie MND Chen Bingde GSD Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan GAD Jing Zhiyuan 2 nd Arty Wu Shengli Navy Xu Qiliang PLAAF Chairman Vice Chairman Members

28 Hu Jintao Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou Liang Guanglie MND Chen Bingde GSD Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan GAD Jing Zhiyuan 2 nd Arty Wu Shengli Navy Xu Qiliang PLAAF Chairman Vice Chairman Members ? X X X X X X X

29 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

30 NORTH KOREA

31 IRAN

32 AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

33 CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING

34 GLOBAL COMMONS OUTER SPACE CYBER SPACE MARITIME

35 SOUTH CHINA SEA USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009

36 DOMESTIC CHALLENGES ALL UNDER HEAVEN IS NOT WELL

37 RISING CHINA

38 CHALLENGED CHINA

39 DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PEASANTS ARE LOSERS BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE GENDER IMBALANCE GRAYING POPULATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS IRRATIONAL TAX BASE HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV) POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER NET GRAIN IMPORTER INCREASINGLY EMPOWERED MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM

40 POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES. IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

41 XINJIANG JULY 2009

42 CCP IS WORRIED FEARFUL OF THE MASSES WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCE –BUT HOW? –TO WHAT? –HOW FAST? LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY –BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL

43 FOR THE PRC SO WHAT ? BEIJINGS MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!) FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO –CONTINUE TO DELIVER ECONOMIC GROWTH –SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT LOSERS –ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC) –MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN ENGAGED IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE A SEAT AT THE TABLE IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS –ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF THE MASSES WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR

44 FOR THE U.S. SO WHAT? U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH RISING CHINA & CHALLENGED CHINA STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADED CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WAR THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA

45 QUESTIONS?

46 2008: PRC BECAME U.S.S LARGEST CREDITOR OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. DEBT PRC IS U.S.S 2 ND LARGEST TRADE PARTNER LARGEST SOURCE OF IMPORTS TO U.S. 3 RD LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U.S. U.S. IS LARGEST PRC TRADE PARTNER U.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT MARKET OF PRC

47

48 Text 4.PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON DEVELOPMENT FIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN GIVEN A MISSION SEEMINGLY NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPER

49 As Chinas Global Footprint Expands… …Chinas global security interests will also expand. The PLA will likely be called upon more and more for regional security advice.

50 III. Institutional Sources of PLA Influence

51 THAT SAID… THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.


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