1. NOAA Space Environment Center H J Singer NOAA Space Environment Center SEC Center Review July 11, 2000 Boulder, CO Overview of Research and Development Understanding the fundamental physical processes governing the regime from the solar surface, through the interplanetary medium, into the magnetospheric-ionospheric regions, and ending in Earth's upper atmosphere. Applying our understanding to the development of space weather applications.

2. NOAA Space Environment Center Outline  Science Themes: Solar, Interplanetary, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere/Thermosphere  New Research and Modeling  New and Improved Observations  Summary Acknowledgements: Araujo-Pradere, Arge, Fuller-Rowell, Garcia, Hill, Onsager, Pizzo, Sahm, Smithtro, Viereck, and the work done by many other at SEC and in collaboration with SEC

3. NOAA Space Environment Center THE DYNAMIC & COUPLED SUN-EARTH SYSTEM Major Science Themes SunCoronal Mass Ejections CME in the Solar Wind MagnetosphereIonosphere/Thermosphere

4. NOAA Space Environment Center Space Weather Parameters and Goals Space Weather Domain Goal Specify and Forecast: Solar coronal mass ejections Occurrence, magnitude, duration, and magnetic field structure Solar activity flaresOccurrence, magnitude, and duration Solar and galactic energetic particles At satellite orbit, the temporal profile and spectral variation during an SPE event Solar windSolar wind density, velocity, magnetic field strength, and direction Magnetospheric particles and fields Global magnetic field, magnetospheric electrons and ions, and strength and location of field aligned current systems. High-latitude electric fields and electrojet current systems. Geomagnetic disturbances Geomagnetic indices and storm onset, intensity, and duration Radiation beltsTrapped ions and electrons from 1 to 12 Re Ionosphere/ThermoNeutral and electron density, variability Adapted from: NAS Radiation and ISS Report

5. NOAA Space Environment Center Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Input: Potential field source surface model, Wang-Sheely expansion factors, Ground-based solar observations of photospheric magnetic field Output: Solar wind speed at 1 AU; Sector structure Arge and Pizzo, SEC Lead time: 3 – 4 days User: Models; Background for transients

6. NOAA Space Environment Center Forecasting Large Nonrecurrent Geomagnetic Storms Input: L1 observed IMF Output: hourly predictions of occurrence, duration, and strength of geomagnetic storm Lead time: few to more than 10 hours User: Models and those impacted by geomagnetic activity Arge, Chen, Slinker, Pizzo IMF Bz Prediction Probability Dst index

7. NOAA Space Environment Center Geomagnetic Activity Kp Forecasting Input: ACE solar wind velocity, B, Bz, and Costello Neural Net Output: Predicted Kp Index Lead time: 1 – 2 hours User: Models and those impacted by geomagnetic activity Costello (Rice); Onsager, Sahm, Detman (SEC) Verification

8. NOAA Space Environment Center Relativistic (MeV) Electron Forecasting Input: ACE solar wind velocity Baker et al. model (modified) Output: Predicted MeV electron flux Lead time: 1-3 days User: spacecraft operations Smithtro (USAF/SEC), Onsager (SEC)

9. NOAA Space Environment Center Day of year Filtered ap Empirical Ionospheric Storm-Time Correction Model Input: 36 hour filtered ap, (based on ap, global ionospheric foF2, Many years of storm-time intervals) Output: Ionospheric foF2 correction Lead time: depends on ap lead time User: HF communications correction for IRI users Araujo-Pradere, Fuller-Rowell, Codrescu (SEC)

10. NOAA Space Environment Center Data Assimilation in the Ionosphere Data: COSMIC Constellation  Model: Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model

11. NOAA Space Environment Center Solar Contribution to Climate Change First, an anthropogenic component is removed to get the blue curve. –about 0.4 o C warming since 1850 The remaining temperature variability is compared to the solar variability –about 0.2 o C warming since 1850 Note the remarkable correlation in the bottom plot and the two rapid warming trends (around 1930 and 1980) agree well with solar curve Detrended Temperature Solar Forcing Function Conclusion: The sun may be responsible for about 35% of the climate warming since 1850 Mende 2000 Mende and Stellmacher, 2000, to appear in ISSI- Proceedings of the 1999 Meeting in Bern (Private Communications)

12. NOAA Space Environment Center Hard X-Ray Spectrometer Launched Garcia and Kiplinger (SEC) Purpose: To predict proton storms in the vicinity of Earth that are harmful to satellites and humans in space. Launch: Mar. 12, 2000 0929 GMT Orbital Sciences Taurus (T5) Satellite Multi-spectral Thermal Imager (MTI) operated by Sandia National Laboratories for DOE built by Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp. Support: NOAA International Affairs Office and SEC, Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech-U.S S & T grant, USAF European OARD, NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group, DoD Space Test Program

13. NOAA Space Environment Center Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) Launch on GOES M in summer 2001 Ground Data System PDR 4/00 At least one full solar image per minute. –5 arc sec pixels, 512 x 512 pixel array. SXI will monitor: –Coronal hole locations for geomagnetic storm predictions. –Flare location for particle events. –Monitor for changes indicating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). –Active regions beyond east limb for activity predictions. –Active region complexity for flare prediction. –Without SXI, we get only two numbers from XRS to represent solar x-ray activity. Hill (SEC) GOES 9 XRS and Yohkoh Image

14. NOAA Space Environment Center EUV Importance: Thermospheric Effects on Operational Systems 19901995200020052010 Altitude (nautical miles) Year 200 260 320 Hubble altitude with scheduled reboosts Science operations altitude Solar Cycle 22 Solar Cycle 23 Solar Cycle 24 Distance below operational altitude Hubble re-enters without reboost Withbroe, Presentation at SEC Conference on Cycle 23 Predictions (Sept 1996) Example: Hubble Altitude for a Large Solar Cycle 23 During the next solar max period the Hubble space telescope will... go below the operational altitude (green area) prematurely reenter (blue lines) without additional shuttle flights to reboost it to higher orbits Example, Spacecraft such as the Hubble Space Telescope and Space Station will feel the effect of atmospheric drag in two ways: Hubble USA Japan ESA 1. If density is high, the fluctuations in atmospheric drag will cause satellite pointing errors. This makes the Hubble Space Telescope unusable and would ruin microgravity experiments on Space Station 2. Long periods of increased drags could cause spacecraft to reenter prematurely unless expensive reboost operations are performed EUV Measurents added to GOES NO/PQ

15. NOAA Space Environment Center Models at SEC Nowcast and Forecast Medium-Energy Electron and Proton Fluxes in the Magnetosphere GOES NO/PQ Under Development Includes Improved Energetic Particle Measurements 10’s to 100’s of keV Electrons and Protons Provides for Improved Specification, Model Validation and Data Assimilation

16. NOAA Space Environment Center IMAGE: Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration is a NASA Explorer Satellite The IMAGE FUV instrument (Steven Mende PI) was built at and is managed by the Space Sciences Laboratory of the University of California at Berkeley. Launched March 25, 2000 Real-time Data transmission Energetic Neutral Atom Imagers Far Ultraviolet Imager Extreme Ultraviolet Imager Radio Plasma Imager Potential Ground Stations: CRL (Japan), UC Berkeley, NOAA Ak, Rutherford-Appleton, US Naval Academy Onsager, Sahm, Vickroy NOAA/SEC Latest FUV Image (simulated)

17. NOAA Space Environment Center NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite POES Evans and Greer (SEC) One day of NOAA –15 power input from electron and proton precipitation. NOAA – 15 on line SEM 2: more and wider range of energy channels 50 eV – 20 KeV Single pass showing particle flux used to determine statistical oval.

18. NOAA Space Environment Center  INTERDISCIPLINARY  NSF’s CEDAR, GEM, and SHINE (involves SEC leadership)  NOAA SEC Space Weather Week  KDI’s, STC’s SEC Research and Development Collaboration, Participation, and Partnership  INTERAGENCY  NASA’s Living With a Star (SEC participation on teams)  National Space Weather Program (Committee on Space Weather; development of Implementation Plan)  Community Coordinated Modeling Center (Steering committee)  UPOS  NOAA SEC Space Weather Week  INTERNATIONAL  ISES  Visiting Scientists  NOAA SEC Space Weather Week

19. NOAA Space Environment Center H J Singer NOAA Space Environment Center Research and Development Leads to Improved Specification and Forecasting SEC Center Review July 11, 2000 Boulder, CO