1. GAP Risk Assessment June 2008

2. Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) Three continents affected (Asia, Africa and Europe) Worrying situation in Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria Threat remains but is limited in Europe due to biosecurity at poultry farms

3. Flu pandemic 385 cases of human contamination, including 243 deaths, following close and prolonged contact with sick animals Some cases of inter-human contamination resulting from close contact with infected persons

5. Currently Contrasting situations, with a critical zone in Asia Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam Several cases in the animal population and human cases identified Bangladesh, India (W. Bengal) Several cases in the animal population, a single human case identified in Bangladesh (May 2008) China Rare human cases with no critical situation confirmed for animal health Ukraine, Turkey, Pakistan, Laos, Thailand, South Korea Isolated cases in poultry farm animals, no human cases

6. Prospects Good news Species barrier* fairly effective in its current state (Hinjoy et al., 2008) Bad news Situation critical in Indonesia (FAO, 18/03/08) Human co-infection by H5N1 / H3N2 (Setiawaty et al., 2008) Genetic recombination between strains of H5N1 (Monne et al., 2008) Role of wild animals (Keawcharoen et al., 2008, Gilbert et al., 2008) * Difficulty for an infectious agent in passing from one species to the other due to their differences.

7. Conclusion In conclusion: The pandemic risk remains intact Confirmation by the WHO Likelihood and time and outbreak still unknown Anticipating a pandemic remains vital Absenteeism of 20 to 50% for 6 to 8 weeks