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The Evolution of Internet Infrastructures Geoff Huston NTW Track 4.

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Presentation on theme: "The Evolution of Internet Infrastructures Geoff Huston NTW Track 4."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Evolution of Internet Infrastructures Geoff Huston NTW Track 4


3 Introduction In general the Internet has followed similar evolutionary steps in every country where it has been introduced. In some countries these steps have happened in very quick succession, in others there are discrete intervals of some years across each step.

4 Introduction Each phase does entail increasingly sophisticated infrastructure within the country concerned. These steps are meshed with the development of the national communications infrastructure as much as they are concerned with the evolution of the Internet infrastructure.

5 Introduction Your mileage will vary!

6 Phase 1 zthe enthusiasts - anything that can be made to work... Cheaply !

7 Phase 1 yDial-based store forward email ylayered above modem use of PSTN yuniversity and research base - computing departments yMessaging services interfacing to the Internet xUUCP xdial-IP xFRedMail

8 Phase 1 - the enthusiasts zEquipment yPC platforms yLinux, FreeBSD & Windows NT ymodems zLocal Networks ysmall scale Ethernet LANs zService Platform - PSTN services yDial yLimited X.25 packet switched services

9 Phase 1 - the issues zIssues: yPoor funding (if any!) yIntermittent services yspecialised knowledge and high enthusiasm required to operate services ydistributed expertise with no common management framework zCannot scale easily beyond hundreds or low thousands of users within a cell

10 Phase 2 - the Grand Experiment zEmerging commitment to Internet access zNational Academic and Research Internet Service

11 Phase 2 - the Grand Experiment zAcademic and Research project yuniversity based ygovernment funding support ynon-commercial ynational agenda yno visible telco interest

12 Phase 2 - A & R net zEquipment yUnix workstations yPCs (Linux, FreeBSD & Windows NT) yRouters zLocal Networks yCampus LANs with switched backbone

13 Phase 2 - A & R net zCommunications Service Platform yvaried xDigital Data transmission services xPSTN - dial edges xX.25 xprivate microwave and radio where feasible

14 Phase 2 - A & R net znational academic and research facility zgovernment financial support zImposed Appropriate Use guidelines zfunding by consensus guidelines within A & R zstrong content emphasis ylibrary funding a strong driver in this phase zoften provide core services to dial-based message services

15 Phase 2 - the issues zScaling pressures increase ypressure to service A & R fringes xgovernmental bodies xschools xcommercial entities working in areas common with A & R sector

16 Phase 2 - the issues yfixed funding and strong dynamic growth xnetwork outgrows its available funding base xpressures to commercialise to cross subsidise A & R networking growth

17 Phase 3 - the Rush to Riches zEmerging commercial interests for commercial access to the Internet yDial-up market yleased line connectivity market

18 Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zEquipment yService Provider xserver platforms xmodem banks and access servers

19 Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zCmmunications Service Platform xreduced variety and increased robustness yPSTN yISDN yDigital Transmission Systems

20 Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zmultiple commercial providers ylow entry cost and high perceived growth youtflow of skill set from A & R sector zpressure to resell academic and research services yreduce A & R funding demands by selling at higher margin to commercial clients zconstruction of distinct networks yissues of control over the platform yservice market perceptions

21 Phase 3 - the issues ztariff structures zAppropriate Use Policies and Interconnects zregional vs national vs international operators zTelco service platform issues zSmall scale enterprise zcash flow small scale business models

22 Phase 4 - Business Pressures zThe Internet as a business yResidential dial yCommercial marketplace ycommodity market in access services yemerging content and trading markets zInvestment pressures zStock floatations zRegulatory changes

23 Phase 4 - the issues zThe demise of the Academic and Research Network ztariff structures move to marketing dictated structures zInterconnects and peering structures youtcome of interaction of a small number of large providers and a large number of small providers

24 Phase 4 - the issues ztelco involvement now visible zpressure on market from large investment base ythreatened industry bases move into the Internet to secure any form of future zmarketing pressures become more aggressive zsteady stream of new entrants

25 Phase 4 - the issues zmarginalisation or expansion of existing commercial players as investment pressures are bought to bear

26 Phase 5 zno country is there yet … But

27 Phase 5 Personal Computers Network Computers Internet Appliances Utility Programs Individual Environment Multiple Personalities Mass MarketingMembers Groups Segment of One

28 Phase 5 Year 1Year 5Year 10Year 15 1000 100 10 1 Total Peak Usage Telephony Internet Anticipated Growth 10000

29 Phase 5 - whats next? yWill the Internet drive out the phone business? xCan a telco survive a phone crash? yCan the diverse access market survive the telco investment pressure and telco inertia? yWill national infrastructure fall prey to: xinternational cable cartels ? xLEO systems ? xInternet incursions ?

30 Phase 5 - whats next ? zglobalisation and consolidation or zfragmentation and anarchy

31 Today ztelco involvement now very visible ! zmassive growth pressure on the Internet from a very large investment base ythreatened activity bases move into the Internet ynew electronic markets opened ynew communications market opened

32 Today zA potentially revolutionary communications model zBUT yanarchic administrative structure yrapid growth fatigue ystressed infrastructure yno coherent utility model

33 Todays Environment The Internet Information Tool Public Communications Utility Free Market Growth

34 Current Issues zDeregulated Service Provider market ylow entry price as an ISP yvery active market yhigh variability in pricing and quality ypoor levels of consumer awareness yhigh volatility in the marketplace yin general poorly financially resourced yIncreased regulatory structure initiated through consumer protection initiatives ?

35 Current Issues zBackbone wholesaler and Access retailer model ywill change as.. xbackbone providers enter the retail market xretailers band together to defend existing market share xnew technologies impact on PSTN dial access model yNiche retail markets, opened through rapid market expansion, close as the expansion pace slakens off ?

36 Current Issues zMarket demand exceeds capability of supply ypoor performance levels due to saturation of existing capacity ychange of growth patterns for communications yexisting supply systems are indicating signs of stress! yMarket demand will continue to outpace supply rates for the next 3 - 5 years at least

37 Current Issues zContent and Advertising yIs there a pay per view market? yIs there a advertising market which can survive fast forward ? yWill spamming jam email to the extent that public directories are withdrawn? yIs there any moderating factor on behaviour? yAdvertising models will evolve - the current match of the model to the medium is too poor to be effective

38 Current Issues zElectronic commerce ywheres the transaction? yWheres the bank? yWheres my money? yWho pays the tax? zWill the market grow faster than the regulators can regulate to save the current system?

39 Futures zLinear thinking in an Exponential World 1994 1999 1 50 You are here

40 Internet Futures 1994 2003 You are here Internet Market Phone market

41 Near Term Futures zmarginalisation or expansion of existing commercial players as investment pressures are bought to bear yexpansion rates open niche markets ythese markets close down when growth rates stabilise, due to competitive price pressures zCurrently there are 35,000 Internet Service Providers in the world ythis number will eventually decrease

42 Futures - Internet / Telco zWill the Internet drive out the telco voice business? yVoice over the Internet is technically feasible yIs widespread deployment a likely outcome? yWill service quality be a determinant factor? yHow will existing phone players survive if the squeeze happens? zThis outcome is unlikely in the next 5 - 10 years. Longer term predictions are highly speculative!

43 Futures - Internet / Telco zCan the Internet market survive the telco? yinvestment pressures yeconomies of scale yprotection of value of existing assets ycurrent asset holdings of communications infrastructure yhistorically regulatory position of the Telco

44 Futures - Technology zIs there a single killer application for the Internet? ynope! yThe Internet is FAR more versatile than that! zEmbedding communications and processing ythe Internet chip as a base of new consumer products zInternet market expansion based on expansion of consumer products which use digital communications

45 Futures - Technology zCan the Internet survive massive consumerism in technology terms? yfragmentation in address space yfragmentation in name space yscaling pressures in the routing space surpass available silicon ychannel capacity pressures surpass available infrastructure yno service quality structure yfragmentation in connectivity space

46 Futures - Technology zWhat will it look like? yBoxes, Screens, Keyboards and Mice yDigital Assistants yNetwork Computers yPersonal Communicators yNot just smart, but highly communicative plastic money cards yreally well connected and well informed coffee makers

47 Futures - The Information Economy zworkforce requirements yinformation literate yflexible yskill specialisation

48 Futures - The Information Economy zeffective domestic communications infrastructure yrestructuring may be necessary to achieve maximal potential from the existing infrastructure investment ystrategically separate the provision of basic bit carriage from layered services of voice and data switching yMix of public and private investment profiles may be necedssary to achieve effective infrastructure platform

49 Futures - The Information Economy zWill national infrastructure fall prey to international comms consortia? zIs this a politically tenable / stable outcome?

50 Futures - The Information Economy zeffective international communications infrastructure yundersea cable systems under stress due to Internet expansion yrapid expansion of cable rollout plans ypotential restructuring of international communications agreements

51 Futures - Social zThe Internet will drive a process of social change yalter the basis of economic wealth yalter the flows of information within society yChange the operational model of social structures zIt is unrealistic to anticipate a smooth transition...

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