Introduction In general the Internet has followed similar evolutionary steps in every country where it has been introduced. In some countries these steps have happened in very quick succession, in others there are discrete intervals of some years across each step.
Introduction Each phase does entail increasingly sophisticated infrastructure within the country concerned. These steps are meshed with the development of the national communications infrastructure as much as they are concerned with the evolution of the Internet infrastructure.
Phase 1 zthe enthusiasts - anything that can be made to work... Cheaply !
Phase 1 yDial-based store forward email ylayered above modem use of PSTN yuniversity and research base - computing departments yMessaging services interfacing to the Internet xUUCP xdial-IP xFRedMail
Phase 1 - the issues zIssues: yPoor funding (if any!) yIntermittent services yspecialised knowledge and high enthusiasm required to operate services ydistributed expertise with no common management framework zCannot scale easily beyond hundreds or low thousands of users within a cell
Phase 2 - the Grand Experiment zEmerging commitment to Internet access zNational Academic and Research Internet Service
Phase 2 - the Grand Experiment zAcademic and Research project yuniversity based ygovernment funding support ynon-commercial ynational agenda yno visible telco interest
Phase 2 - A & R net zEquipment yUnix workstations yPCs (Linux, FreeBSD & Windows NT) yRouters zLocal Networks yCampus LANs with switched backbone
Phase 2 - A & R net zCommunications Service Platform yvaried xDigital Data transmission services xPSTN - dial edges xX.25 xprivate microwave and radio where feasible
Phase 2 - A & R net znational academic and research facility zgovernment financial support zImposed Appropriate Use guidelines zfunding by consensus guidelines within A & R zstrong content emphasis ylibrary funding a strong driver in this phase zoften provide core services to dial-based message services
Phase 2 - the issues zScaling pressures increase ypressure to service A & R fringes xgovernmental bodies xschools xcommercial entities working in areas common with A & R sector
Phase 2 - the issues yfixed funding and strong dynamic growth xnetwork outgrows its available funding base xpressures to commercialise to cross subsidise A & R networking growth
Phase 3 - the Rush to Riches zEmerging commercial interests for commercial access to the Internet yDial-up market yleased line connectivity market
Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zEquipment yService Provider xserver platforms xmodem banks and access servers
Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zCmmunications Service Platform xreduced variety and increased robustness yPSTN yISDN yDigital Transmission Systems
Phase 3 - Commercial Internet zmultiple commercial providers ylow entry cost and high perceived growth youtflow of skill set from A & R sector zpressure to resell academic and research services yreduce A & R funding demands by selling at higher margin to commercial clients zconstruction of distinct networks yissues of control over the platform yservice market perceptions
Phase 3 - the issues ztariff structures zAppropriate Use Policies and Interconnects zregional vs national vs international operators zTelco service platform issues zSmall scale enterprise zcash flow small scale business models
Phase 4 - Business Pressures zThe Internet as a business yResidential dial yCommercial marketplace ycommodity market in access services yemerging content and trading markets zInvestment pressures zStock floatations zRegulatory changes
Phase 4 - the issues zThe demise of the Academic and Research Network ztariff structures move to marketing dictated structures zInterconnects and peering structures youtcome of interaction of a small number of large providers and a large number of small providers
Phase 4 - the issues ztelco involvement now visible zpressure on market from large investment base ythreatened industry bases move into the Internet to secure any form of future zmarketing pressures become more aggressive zsteady stream of new entrants
Phase 4 - the issues zmarginalisation or expansion of existing commercial players as investment pressures are bought to bear
Phase 5 Personal Computers Network Computers Internet Appliances Utility Programs Individual Environment Multiple Personalities Mass MarketingMembers Groups Segment of One
Phase 5 Year 1Year 5Year 10Year 15 1000 100 10 1 Total Peak Usage Telephony Internet Anticipated Growth 10000
Phase 5 - whats next? yWill the Internet drive out the phone business? xCan a telco survive a phone crash? yCan the diverse access market survive the telco investment pressure and telco inertia? yWill national infrastructure fall prey to: xinternational cable cartels ? xLEO systems ? xInternet incursions ?
Phase 5 - whats next ? zglobalisation and consolidation or zfragmentation and anarchy
Today ztelco involvement now very visible ! zmassive growth pressure on the Internet from a very large investment base ythreatened activity bases move into the Internet ynew electronic markets opened ynew communications market opened
Today zA potentially revolutionary communications model zBUT yanarchic administrative structure yrapid growth fatigue ystressed infrastructure yno coherent utility model
Todays Environment The Internet Information Tool Public Communications Utility Free Market Growth
Current Issues zDeregulated Service Provider market ylow entry price as an ISP yvery active market yhigh variability in pricing and quality ypoor levels of consumer awareness yhigh volatility in the marketplace yin general poorly financially resourced yIncreased regulatory structure initiated through consumer protection initiatives ?
Current Issues zBackbone wholesaler and Access retailer model ywill change as.. xbackbone providers enter the retail market xretailers band together to defend existing market share xnew technologies impact on PSTN dial access model yNiche retail markets, opened through rapid market expansion, close as the expansion pace slakens off ?
Current Issues zMarket demand exceeds capability of supply ypoor performance levels due to saturation of existing capacity ychange of growth patterns for communications yexisting supply systems are indicating signs of stress! yMarket demand will continue to outpace supply rates for the next 3 - 5 years at least
Current Issues zContent and Advertising yIs there a pay per view market? yIs there a advertising market which can survive fast forward ? yWill spamming jam email to the extent that public directories are withdrawn? yIs there any moderating factor on behaviour? yAdvertising models will evolve - the current match of the model to the medium is too poor to be effective
Current Issues zElectronic commerce ywheres the transaction? yWheres the bank? yWheres my money? yWho pays the tax? zWill the market grow faster than the regulators can regulate to save the current system?
Futures zLinear thinking in an Exponential World 1994 1999 1 50 You are here
Internet Futures 1994 2003 You are here Internet Market Phone market
Near Term Futures zmarginalisation or expansion of existing commercial players as investment pressures are bought to bear yexpansion rates open niche markets ythese markets close down when growth rates stabilise, due to competitive price pressures zCurrently there are 35,000 Internet Service Providers in the world ythis number will eventually decrease
Futures - Internet / Telco zWill the Internet drive out the telco voice business? yVoice over the Internet is technically feasible yIs widespread deployment a likely outcome? yWill service quality be a determinant factor? yHow will existing phone players survive if the squeeze happens? zThis outcome is unlikely in the next 5 - 10 years. Longer term predictions are highly speculative!
Futures - Internet / Telco zCan the Internet market survive the telco? yinvestment pressures yeconomies of scale yprotection of value of existing assets ycurrent asset holdings of communications infrastructure yhistorically regulatory position of the Telco
Futures - Technology zIs there a single killer application for the Internet? ynope! yThe Internet is FAR more versatile than that! zEmbedding communications and processing ythe Internet chip as a base of new consumer products zInternet market expansion based on expansion of consumer products which use digital communications
Futures - Technology zCan the Internet survive massive consumerism in technology terms? yfragmentation in address space yfragmentation in name space yscaling pressures in the routing space surpass available silicon ychannel capacity pressures surpass available infrastructure yno service quality structure yfragmentation in connectivity space
Futures - Technology zWhat will it look like? yBoxes, Screens, Keyboards and Mice yDigital Assistants yNetwork Computers yPersonal Communicators yNot just smart, but highly communicative plastic money cards yreally well connected and well informed coffee makers
Futures - The Information Economy zworkforce requirements yinformation literate yflexible yskill specialisation
Futures - The Information Economy zeffective domestic communications infrastructure yrestructuring may be necessary to achieve maximal potential from the existing infrastructure investment ystrategically separate the provision of basic bit carriage from layered services of voice and data switching yMix of public and private investment profiles may be necedssary to achieve effective infrastructure platform
Futures - The Information Economy zWill national infrastructure fall prey to international comms consortia? zIs this a politically tenable / stable outcome?
Futures - The Information Economy zeffective international communications infrastructure yundersea cable systems under stress due to Internet expansion yrapid expansion of cable rollout plans ypotential restructuring of international communications agreements
Futures - Social zThe Internet will drive a process of social change yalter the basis of economic wealth yalter the flows of information within society yChange the operational model of social structures zIt is unrealistic to anticipate a smooth transition...