Presentation on theme: "THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE Ivo Šlaus World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees, SEED – South East."— Presentation transcript:
THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE Ivo Šlaus World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees, SEED – South East European Division, president World Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs and The Club of Rome
Why 1) The contemporary world: globalization – science generated rapid changes – science generated characterized by uncertainties and instabilities, number of Earths required to provide resources used by humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year: 197019802005 0.86 1.001.25 World is dangerously in a state of overshoot. Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance
Cross-border trade: 1950 = 8% GDP, 2000 = 25% (Kant) 24 globalizers (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs nonglobalizers decreased by 1% 400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years ago By 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now. Worker/producerpersonconsumer/stakeholder Dramatic conventional jobs reduction, new skills 30 new infectious diseases in 20 years, resistance to antibiotics, flu pandemic Terrorism (tanker in harbor: 55xHiroshima), crime (cyber) Trust changes quickly: 1975: 20% American trust military vs 63% in 2000 Decision-making: quite local and global Educated vs Uneducated demonstrate 31% 6% stopped buying goods 70%34%
Failures Income gap: 1960 19901997 30:1 60:1 74(82):1 Undernourishment in industrial 2.5%, in Africa 40% In 1998 45% of people had to live on $ 2/day 1981 to 2001: living on $1/day fell by factor of 2 while living on $2/day increased from 2.4 to 2.7 billions 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline in GDP/c 1945 1985 200519852005 USA23,00010,500 USSR/Russia40,000 9,000 world70,00030,000
Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005: 50,000 citizens, 65 countries equivalent 1.3 billion persons (1)Election free/fair(2)Country governed by the will of the people world 47%30% East Central Europe 33%22% Political stability index = (1)(2) + (1)(-2) – (-1)(-2) PSI 2003 PSI 2004 PSI 2005 World 14125 Middle East 4445 26
Business leaders Political leaders Not competent23%45% Unethical38%49% Too much power46%53% Dishonest40%61%
Most important problems facing the world today Poverty26% Terrorism12% Unemployment 9% Wars and conlicts 8% Economic problems 7% Environment 6% Drugs 5% Crime 4%
Learn from successes: world ave developing world 1960: 2250 2100 Kcal/day capita 1997: 2750 2600 Kcal/day capita Higher life expectancy and healthy active life end of Cold War and spread of democracies successful treaties, e.g. ozone How
Eliminate violence, war, terrorism Development,human and social dignity, full employment Culture of peace and knowledge: democracy and freedom Eliminate ignorance Research and education in spite of cumulative advantage feature of not an elite in a sea science breakthru catch up of mediocrity
We have to live with dangerous technologies We have to live with uncertainties: in quantum physics from uncertainties to quantum computer and life Reduce non-renewable resources and substitute by other resources. Reduce and eliminate dangers and threats we face. Knowledge can cause quantitative and qualitative jump in the GDP/capita
psycho-social pressures and stress + perception that our dignity and that of our social group is threatened + short term interests globalization interdependence/ no major war energy demand: in 2030 2.6 times larger small influence large effects (CO 2 ) Search for alternative inputs much earlier than we reach a maximum. whatever we do not do today will be more difficult to do tomorrow.
Our greatest success: Knowledge existing science, humanities and technology; knowledge one produces: ongoing and planned R&D, innovations; ideas education; language, literature, art Knowledge is the main resource in a knowledge-society. It permeates the life and the culture of a society: policy- and decision-making. It implies long-term and global perspective. Knowledge society is constantly changing, constantly asking: why. Knowledge is inexhaustible and it is increased by sharing.
Caveat: Knowledge is contextualized only within a specific cultural system. All cultures need constant changes?!! TIME Chronos and Kairos There was no time when we did not exists (Bhagavad Gita) Man is afraid of time, but time is afraid of pyramides(Arab) Future is an ethical category – we choose it. (Soedjatmoko) Theory of relativity – Albert Einstein While most resources existed separately of people, knowledge resides in people.
S&T give the power to change the future. Today knowledge is becoming the main political power (Alvin Toffler) IGO handful 1900 to 4667 in 1996 NGO 196 in 1900 to 44,000 in 2000 global civil society Knowledge-Governance Intertwining Values – Goals – Rules – Habits Long-term and short-term (market, current politics) Assure sustainable consumption. Minimize the dangers of modern technologies. Revitalize hidden and traditional knowledge. Beyond tolerance to cultural understanding.
Each nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons (number and power) in half every two years. Each state reduces its total military power in half every five years. USA, Russia and China ban antipersonnel mines. Appreciate: Education is needed not only for jobs and skills, but much more to be able to live. Assure: Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT: $100 laptops. Roadmap
education at all levels for everybody and lifelong Europe USA Japan South Korea % working population 21 % 38% 36% with tertiary education Gross enrolment 52% 81% 82% Within 500 leading universities – Europe – cradle of education – has very few. European Institute of Technology as a network
Senior executives would spend most R&D in : China 39%, USA 29%, India 28%, UK 24%, 19% Germany Shift to interpersonal work increase number of jobs No discrimination w/r/t gender, age, disability Flexibility – Mobility – Stability – Social cohesion (Indian-born residents in the USA account for 0.1% of the USA population and their aggregate income represent 10% of Indian GDP) Jobs are and will be not what they used to be: high use of ICT and networking.
Economy will swell by 40% from 2005 to 2015 Chinese middle class: from 65 millions in 2005 to 650 in 2020 Appreciate: Work Employment. Changes in jobs, skills, human resources development. Capacity to manage change. Taking risks and controlling risks. Each state reduces unemployment by 2% each 2 years by increasing employment in education and research. [Since less person-hours are needed to achieve the same output in agriculture and manufacturing and since part of services are redundant, the demand for new jobs will be in education (About a factor 4-6, since instead of 12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60 year long education, and for a much larger number od persons.) and in R&D. Knowledge-intensive sectors in EU = 33% (UK = 41%)
Europe USA Japan Turkey GER&D 1.99% 2.76% 3.12% 0.64% top 1% cited articles37.3% 62.8% scientific publications46.1% 39.4% 10.8% 1.6% world researchers33.4% 22.8% 11.7% 0.4% (5521 in thousands) 18431261 647 23 researchers/million inhabi 2319 4373 5085 325 Each state increases its GER&D to reach 3% of its GDP, but assuring that all R&D outputs indicators (top 5% cited papers, number of NP and FM laureates and of fellows of international/regional academies, number of leading universities and research institutes) increase, intertwining knowledge with economy and governance (assessed by involvement of active top scientists in policy- and decision-making bodies above a threshold of 10%). Ownership of knowledge – Knowledge as a common good.
Cooperation The best place to store food is in another person belly. (Eskimossaying) Golden moral rule: reciprocal altruism is an example of a win-win game. The state when nobody can gain without somebody else losing – i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called the Pareto optimum. Innovations and more importantly, scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto optimum.
TABLE 25 Various indicators assessing social impact of R&D CountryESIHDIGCIGIHLS Range0-1000-1RankingRanking: 62-1 0-100 Slovenia58,80,879312569,5 Croatia62,50,809532266,0 B&H51,3---61,5 S &MN----61 Macedonia47,20,77281-56 Romania-0,775754059,5 Bulgaria-0,77964-45,0 Greece50,90,8853526- Albania59,70,733--- Italy47,20,913412484,5 Austria64,20,92617881,5 Hungary62,70,835332365,0 Czech Republic50,20,849391569,5 Turkey50,80,742655372,0 USA53,20,93921189,5 Ireland54,80,92530190,5
Conclusion In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in the betterment of global conditions. We need to emphasize cooperation, networking and solidarity, increasing human options and freedom. Development of human and social capital, and increasing the Pareto optimum requires knowledge-based society. In a knowledge society individuals and social groups will behave and act irrationally, make numerous mistakes, even be stupid. It is the responsibility of the knowledge society to develop and establish ways that can minimize their harm and maximize their possible benefits.