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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity.

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Presentation on theme: "Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity."— Presentation transcript:

1 Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity

2 Roadmap Why the Young & Restless Matter Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis

3 Participating Cities Memphis, TN Philadelphia, PA Portland, OR Providence, RI Portland, VA Tampa, FL

4 Research Agenda Detailed Quantitative Analysis –Demographics, migration, and location of year-olds in 1990 and 2000 –Focus on Top 50 US Metro Areas (All with populations >1 million) In-Depth Qualitative Analysis –Focus groups with young workers in participating cities –Recent movers, college plus education

5 National Context Why the Young and Restless Matter to Metropolitan Prosperity

6 Fewer 25 to 34 year-olds U.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population –1990: 43.5 Million –2000: 39.6 Million Today –3.9 Million Fewer –a 9% Decline

7 A Critical Demographic As a group, 25 to 34 year-olds are: Well-Educated Highly Mobile Hard-Working Adaptable Cheap (Relative to Older Workers) = H.R.s Dream Demographic

8 Big Shifts Among Metros % Change year-olds, 1990 to Most Populous Metro Areas Average of Top 50 Metros

9 Future Outlook: Labor Shortage Last 30 Years –Boomers enter prime work years –Womens labor market participation nearly doubles –Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years –Boomers retire; many early –Womens labor market participation plateaus –Educational attainment plateaus = Labor Shortage

10 Competing in a Knowledge Economy Talent is the critical resource The Creative Class matters –Skilled, creative workers –Attractive, tolerant places –Innovative, successful economies The Young and Restless are the creative class that is up for grabs

11 Creative Class Correlates to Young Talent

12 Youth and Tolerance Also Correlated

13 Quantitative Analysis National Context: Why this matters Overall Trends Changing Faces Talent Moving In, Moving On Local Patterns

14 Benchmark Cities Have More 25-34s RankMetropolitan AreaPercent Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 18.2% 6Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 16.4% 10Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 15.7% 13San Diego, CA MSA 15.5% 15Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 15.4% 18Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 15.2%

15 Changing Faces Racial and Ethnic Trends Reshaping the Look of the Young and Restless

16 Young Adult Population More Diverse Percent of Population, 1990 and 2000

17 Growth Rates Varied by Demography Percent Change, 1990 to 2000

18 Hispanics Fastest growing segment of the young and restless since 1990 –Hispanic 25-34: Up 2.3 million (+57%) –Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 5.3 million (-17%) San Antonio year-olds are majority Hispanic; Los Angeles (48%), Miami (46%) Low College Attainment an issue (11% vs. 31.9% for all 25-34s)

19 African-Americans Declining slightly, less than whites Generally becoming more dispersed Magnet Cities for African Americans, –Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte, Minneapolis Atlanta –36% increase in year-old African Americans –24% college attainment (vs 18% nationally)

20 Smart Women College Attainment Rate of 25 to 34 Year Olds, 2000 Gender Change Men 26.9%30.3%+3.4% Women26.3% 33.6%+7.3% Change in College-educated 25 to 34 Year Olds, Gender NumberPercent Men+ 150, % Women+ 624, %

21 Portlands Population Less Diverse 25 to 34 Year-olds RankMetropolitan Area Percent White 12Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA79.7% 17Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA77.7% 19Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA75.9% 25Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA71.7% 32Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA69.1% 41San Diego, CA MSA61.6%

22 Average in College Attainment RankMetropolitan Area4 Year Degree 6Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA38.9% 7Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA38.1% 14Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA34.2% 27Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA29.0% 30San Diego, CA MSA28.7% 44Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA24.6% year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000

23 Biggest Shifts in Talented 25-34s RankMetropolitan Area Change, Charlotte, NC MSA56.6% 3Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA56.2% 4Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA50.0% 5Atlanta, GA MSA46.2% 6Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA40.1% 42St. Louis, MO, MSA-0.7% 45New Orleans, LA MSA-4.3% 49Providence, RI MSA -7.0% Change in College Educated 25-34s

24 Moving In, Moving On Migration of the Young and Restless Among US Metropolitan Areas

25 Population Change vs. Migration Change Data Compare birth cohort in 1990 vs birth cohort in 2000 (Different people, same age) Migration Data Compare birth cohort in 1995 vs birth cohort in 2000 (Same people, different age)

26 Millions Move Between 1995 and 2000, 6.6 million 25 to 34 year-olds moved from one metropolitan area to another Migration rates vary by a factor of four Well-educated are the most likely to move, especially long distances

27 Local Patterns Where do the 25 to 34 year-olds Live in Portland?

28 25 to 34 Year-olds Increasing Increase in 25 to 34 Year-olds,

29 College-educated young adults Concentration of College-educated year-olds

30 African-American year-olds Concentration of African-American year-olds

31 Close-in Neighborhods Key Concentration of College-educated year-olds 3 miles from CBD Growth of 25 to 34 year-olds 1990 to Percent Share of 25 to 34 year-olds with a 4-year degree 54 Percent

32 Central or Suburban Growth? Metropolitan AreaWithin 3 MilesOutside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA+32%- 6% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA+30%+10% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA+24%+14% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA+17%- 6% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA- 2%+23% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA-5%+25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA -12%+19% Change in year-olds Population

33 Smart in the Center or Burbs? Metropolitan AreaWithin 3 MilesOutside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA56%32% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA54%26% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA46%37% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA67%38% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA40%46% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA12%25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA 35%32% year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000

34 From Here... The Economic Importance of Being Different

35 Qualitative Analysis What the young and restless want from cities City-specific assets and challenges A toolkit for cities Insights and opportunities

36 What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Open the Circle and Welcome Newcomers Welcome New Ideas Encourage Diversity Create a Place Where People Can Be Themselves Let Young People Live Their Values and Create a New History

37 What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Build Vibrant Places Take Care of the Basics Be the Best at Something Sell Your Regional Assets Know What You Want to Be and Be Willing to Take Risks to Achieve It

38 A Toolkit for Cities Deliver an appealing reality. Put values on display. Keep in touch with former residents. Create opportunities for civic involvement. Use internships to connect with young adults.

39 More Tools... Survey young adults regularly. Celebrate young entrepreneurs and civic contributors. Communicate development plans to young adults. Promote your city. Promote a young adult lifestyle.

40 Differences from Other Studies Three other studies address migration Bill Frey: Metropolitan Magnets Paul Gottlieb: Brain Drain Census Bureau:

41 Frey: Metro Magnets Metropolitan Magnets for International and Domestic Migrants (Oct. 2003) International and domestic migration among 81 Largest Metros based on Census, migration data KEY WEAKNESS: No age group data Domestic migrant magnets all characterized by lower-density (p. 9)

42 Gottlieb: Brain Drain Labor Supply Pressures and the "Brain Drain, (January 2004) Northeast & Midwest have highest proportion of young & educated; counters notion of a brain drain. WEAKNESS: Doesnt measure change in educational attainment of 25-34s from 1990 to 2000 Year 2000 snapshot on attainment; change measures have life cycle bias-- compares location of 15 to 24 year olds in 1990 to 25 to 34 year olds in 2000; doesnt separate out effects of international migrations

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