1. TM Marsh Index: Healthy, Mod Deterioration, Severe Deterioration Assessing the Response of Coastal Marshes to Sea Level Rise at a Coast-Wide Scale Michael S. Kearney Department of Geography and the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742

2. Winter Landscape, Pieter Breugel the Younger – 1601 Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna. Canals in Holland regularly froze during ‘Little Ice Age’ (ca. 1400-1850)

3. Chesapeake Bay has had a slow rate of sea level rise (~0.56 mm/yr) over the last thousand years Kearney,M. 1996 J. Coastal Research 12: 977-983

4. Mean sea level has risen 30 cm (1 foot) over the last century Baltimore tide gauge PSMSL data

5. Declining Marsh at Blackwater NWR & Barbados Is.; Oct. 2000

6. Processes of Marsh Loss Local human activities: ditching, diking, berms, tidal restrictions (roads), Nutria over-grazing, groundwater withdrawals, subsidence, & etc.Local human activities: ditching, diking, berms, tidal restrictions (roads), Nutria over-grazing, groundwater withdrawals, subsidence, & etc. Sea Level Rise:Sea Level Rise: -slow vertical accretion (low tidal flushing) -plants dieback (especially during droughts) - formation of rotten spots & then ponds -ponds coalescence to open embayments

8. Blackwater WildLife Refuge c. 1902

12. Physical changes in marsh condition accompany marsh loss Photo: J. C. Stevenson

13. Spatial Variation In Vertical Accretion Rates at Monie Bay

14. Sediment Elevation Table Measurements

15. Typical Spectral Curves of Vegetation, Soil, and Water Vegetation Soil Water

16. Atmospheric Correction: Uncorrected

17. Atmospheric Correction: Corrected

18. Band Slicing and Mixing

19. Simulated Thematic Mapper data from Scirpus americanus inundation experiment Pixel Value I Inundation Depth (cm)

20. Spectral Indices 1) Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI): (Band 3 - Band 5) / (Band 3 + Band 5); (Band 3 + Band 5); 2) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): (Band 4 - Band 3) / (Band 4 + Band 3); (Band 4 + Band 3); 3) Normalized Difference Soil Index (NDSI): (Band 5 - Band 4) / (Band 5 + Band 4). (Band 5 + Band 4).

22. Endmember Spectra

23. Data Processing Flow Image IndicesImage Preprocessing Raw Data Calibrated Data Reflectance Conversion Calibrated Data NDXI Layered Indices NDSI NDVI NDWI Optimized Endmembers Endmember Selection And Evaluation 1m CIR Photos Reflectance Wavelength Band X Band Y Spectral Mixture Analysis And Thematic Classification NDXI Layered IndicesSMA Fractions RMSE Images Thematic Classification Multitemporal SMA

24. Validation Site For Marsh Condition Results

25. Marsh Condition and Loss in Chesapeake Bay

26. Change In Marsh Surface Condition 1984-1993 For Delaware Bay

27. Change Detection at Larger Scales Changes in marsh condition between 1984- 1993 at Bombay Hook, Delaware based on the Landsat TM MSCI model results. Green = healthy to slightly degraded marsh; yellow = moderately degraded marsh; red = severely degraded marsh; blue = water. The area covered by the images is approximately 64 km 2. 19841993 1984 1993

28. 1988 2001 1999 1993 Water Upland Intact Moderate Severe Thematic class change: 1988 - 2001

29. Area Non- degraded Slightly to moderately degraded Severely to completely degraded Chesapeake Bay Upper and middle Bay* 31 (25,201) 50 (40,647) 19 (15,446) Lower Bay28 (9,404)52 (17,464) 20 (6,717) Delaware Bay North Shore (New Jersey ) 38 (27,095) 43 (30,660) 19 (13,547) South Shore (Delaware) 55 (19,974) 35 (12,711) 10 (3,632) Marsh condition class percentages (hectares) for estuarine marshes in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays based on 1993 Thematic Mapper imagery Marsh condition class percentages (hectares) for estuarine marshes in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays based on 1993 Thematic Mapper imagery.

30. Questions

31. Leaf Area Index vs Canopy Height

32. The large scale features of climate change are well understood, but the projections of change at regional and smaller scales remain uncertain. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION SHALLOW WATER AREAS  Habitat & SAV loss  Carbon sources  Total suspended solids OPEN WATER AREAS  More extreme flows and stratification  Habitat loss COASTAL WETLANDS  Loss of habitat and biodiversity  Functional loss  Loss coastal uplands

33. SE 590 Spectroradiometer (252 detectors over a range of 370-1100 nm) deployed 1.5 meters over marsh with video camera to record water depths in aluminum box

34. Reflective Spectral Curves for 3 Brackish Marsh Species

35. Landsat TM Mixture Model Subpixel LOOK, Decomposes Each Pixel Into Vegetation, Soil, and Water ElementsSubpixel LOOK, Decomposes Each Pixel Into Vegetation, Soil, and Water Elements  w1 f w +  v1 f v +  s1 f s = R 1  w1 f w +  v1 f v +  s1 f s = R 1  w2 f w +  v2 f v +  s2 f s = R 2  w2 f w +  v2 f v +  s2 f s = R 2  w3 f w +  v3 f v +  s3 f s = R 3  w3 f w +  v3 f v +  s3 f s = R 3 The Indices are Independent, and Do Not Rely On Endmember SelectionThe Indices are Independent, and Do Not Rely On Endmember Selection -A Critical In General PCA-Based Mixture Models