Presentation on theme: "EU KLEMS project on Productivity in the European Union Presentation at EPROS Meeting, Luxembourg, 1-2 June 2006 Gerard Ypma (Groningen Growth and Development."— Presentation transcript:
EU KLEMS project on Productivity in the European Union Presentation at EPROS Meeting, Luxembourg, 1-2 June 2006 Gerard Ypma (Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen) This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 6th Framework Programme, Priority 8, "Policy Support and Anticipating Scientific and Technological Needs".
Main characteristics of EU KLEMS EU KLEMS project is 3-year statistical and analytical research project funded by 6th Framework Programme Purpose is to create a database on growth accounts by industry (NACE 60+) for EU member states with a breakdown into contributions from capital (K), labour (L), energy (E), materials (M) and service inputs (S) Full coverage of old EU-15 plus 5 new member states (PL, SK, HU, CZ and SI) Limited coverage of other 5 new member states (CY, MT, LT, LV and EE) Also comparisons with U.S., Canada, Korea and Japan 1970-2005, with greatest detail for post-revision period 15 research institutes across Europe, led by GGDC and NIESR In 2 nd phase conduct a number of analytical research projects
Productivity is the Key Variable of Economic Performance
NSIs have actively contributed to EU KLEMS Three status positions: Subcontracting: Statistics Finland, ISTAT, Statistics Netherlands Participatory status: Statistics Sweden, STATEC (Luxembourg), ONS Observer status: INSEE, Statistics Denmark, Statistisches Bundesamt, Institute of National Statistics (Belgium), Statistics Austria, Statistics Ireland, INE, Statistical Office Slovakia, Statistical Office Poland, CSO Hungary, Czech Statistical Office, Statistical Office Slovenia Contacts under development: Greece, Portugal, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta Also contacts with: USA (Harvard University, BEA, BLS),Japan (RIETI, Hitotsubashi), Canada (Statistics Canada), Korea (Seoul National University) OECD (Statistics Dept., DSTI)
Activities Internal Consortium meetings in Helsinki (June 2005) and Valencia (May 2006) Workshops on WP1 (output and intermediate inputs) in September (Groningen) & WP2 (labour accounts) in November (London) Project presentations at EU level (NAWG Eurostat, June 2005; EPC, May 2005) and OECD level (Productivity Conference Madrid, October 2005) Some national presentations of preliminary project results (Sweden, Austria, Netherlands) Data collection & processing WPs Additional data collection and advice from NSIs Processing and construction of preliminary database End of March 2006: release of preliminary analytical database (also available on country-by-country basis for NSIs) April: begin of feedback phase from NSIs EU KLEMS milestones June 05 – June 06
The Underlying Structure of the EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts
Statistical vs. analytical modules of database Analytical module of the database Core of the EU KLEMS database Uses best practice techniques in area of growth accounting Focuses on international consistency Aim is full coverage (country * industry * variable) for revision period Consider alternative or pioneering assumptions (e.g., output and price measurement of ICT goods and non-market services, measurement of skill levels, construction of capital services, capitalization of intangible assets). Analytical database is a research data base and are not official statistics Statistical module of the database: Developed parallel to the analytical module Data consistent with those published by NSIs Methods according to rules and conventions on national accounts, supply and use tables, commodity flow methods, etc. (SNA 1993, ESA 1995) or at least supported by NSIs Statistical module meets statistical standards of NSI's and Eurostat and can eventually be incorporated in their present statistical practices and in New Cronos.
Output from EU KLEMS database Series on nominal values of output (gross output & value added), intermediate inputs (energy, materials, service inputs) and factor inputs (labour by age/skill/gender and capital by asset type) by industry & country Volume series (1995=100 and growth rates) Growth accounting series on output and contributions of intermediate, factor inputs, and total factor productivity Additional variables: compensation of factor inputs, quantity of labour, technology variables (R&D & patents), import shares in intermediate inputs Also comparative levels with industry specific output and input PPPs
Status of Preliminary Analytical Dataset Present dataset is Preliminary Analytical Module (country output files available to individual NSIs) Harmonisation that has been realized Industrial classification: A60+ (up to 72) Aggregation levels: flexible Reference year for volume measures: 1995 Price concepts: basic prices for gross output; purchaser prices for intermediate inputs Solving breaks: splicing method Labour input concept: total hours actually worked (where possible with breakup in persons and hours per person) Asset classification: minimum of 11 asset types, incl. 3 ICT breakdown Capital services input: on basis of endogenous calculation Multifactor productivity measure
Status of Preliminary Analytical Dataset Harmonisation not yet realized Coverage: industry detail, years, countries Correction for FISIM, in particular backwards ICT deflators for output and investment: U.S. hedonic or national deflators Labour quality: country-specific approach, with cross-country linkage through university graduation A large number of smaller issues System of adequate quality control under development Consortium EU KLEMS partner checks input data Central EU KLEMS hubs (Groningen/NIESR) check consistency, concepts, concordances, other sources for EU KLEMS input data Central EU KLEMS hubs (Groningen/NIESR) check consistency, breaks, outliers for EU KLEMS output data Consortium partner/NSI/Eurostat: feedback and validation of EU KLEMS output Consortium: stress testing on plausibility and international comparison
Targets are defined for each variable in EU KLEMS database
Feedback and validation from NSIs Feedback needed on analytical module and validation of statistical module: Initial overall assessment of the quality of the data presently used Which series could in principle be included in the statistical module Which additional series could be used in the statistical module Which additional series may still be provided for use in the analytical module What will EU KLEMS publish? EU KLEMS only publishes end series (see present output files) and not basic data (such as capital-asset matrices or SUTs) Consortium decides on publication of end series in analytical module taking into account NSI feedback NSIs need to validate statistical modules – and those are only ones used for New Cronos and for Commission analysis Full integration of Analytical and Statistical modules is ultimate aim, but for many countries not achievable in framework of this project Discussions on statistical implementation will start after release of first public version of data base
Research Approaches in EU KLEMS Data research & methodology of productivity and national accounting: Capital services, price indices for ICT, input-output analysis International comparisons of skill levels Stress testing and quality control Intermediate level research Measurement of services output Rates of return and profitability Analysis of productivity, prices, industry structures Decomposition and inputs contributions in growth accounting Technology and innovation indicators Analytical research Labour markets and skills Technological progress and innovation Link to productivity research using firm level databases
Time frame Local consortium partners will arrange feedback meetings with NSIs for late May/early June EU KLEMS consortium will process (if feasible) feedback and new data until mid September First full version available on 31 October 2006 About three months of quality checks and stress testing (incl. EU KLEMS Data Co-ordination Group meeting) November 2006: Final discussion at NAWG for preparation of statistical modules End 2006/2007: public release of EU KLEMS analytical module and subsequent (gradual) release of statistical modules 2007: development of Statistical Implementation Plan End of 2007: 2 nd release and publication of 2 or 3 volume series on EU KLEMS (methodology, comparative country studies and analytical research)
Contact Details Bart van Ark (project director) Groningen Growth and Development Centre,University of Groningen PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen Telephone: +31 50 363 3674 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Gerard Ypma (project administrator) Groningen Growth and Development Centre,University of Groningen PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen Telephone: +31 50 363 4838 E-mail: email@example.com E-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org Website: http://www.euklems.net