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Workshop Inter-industry Accounts WP 1 Groningen, 15-16 September 2005 Intrapolating SU-Tables with Bi-Proportional Methods Kurt Kratena, WIFO

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The Framework of SUT Commodity balances for the value of total supply ( VS i ) and the value of total uses ( VU i ) by commodity i : (purchaser prices)

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The Framework of SUT Intermediate Demand with as the price of the composite good: Row Sum of Intermediate Demand: Column Sum of Intermediate Demand: VX j = VY j – VK j - VL j - T j Estimating

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Column Margin of Intermediate Demand Estimating 1.Time Series of Gross Output (basic prices) by industries 2.Supply Tables (Make Matrices) for IOT/SUT years product mix-matrix D with column sum = 1 and elements d ij for j industries and i commodities Main Changes in D: shift between the main diagonal (the 'characteristic' production) and the other elements

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Column Margin of Intermediate Demand Estimating 1.Time Series of trade statistics (including balance of payments data for services) 2.Link between annual import growth in trade statistics & import growth between IOT/SUT years a) straightforward for commodities b) link for BoP categories

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Column Margin of Intermediate Demand Estimating at purchaser prices 1.Exports similar to imports 2.Conversion matrix for private consumption 3.Commodity shares matrix for assets & capital formation matrix ( consistency with WP 3 ! ) 4.Link NPSIH and government consumption to output

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Row Margin of Intermediate Demand Starting Values for Intermediate Demand Time series (1976 – 2003) for input categories for j industries: Energy, materials, freight, repair, processing, rent&leasing, other services. Conversion matrix

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Private Consumption Conversion Matrix (from Statistics Austria) 1.Conversion matrix for 2001: Two Altetnative Bi-Proportional Methods: a)Applying RAS (derive r i and s i ) and extra/intrapolate r i and s i (Alcala, Antille, Fontela,1999), e.g. to 1995 b)Directly extra/intrapolate r i and adjust VC 2000 so that VC* i = VC NA * i Matrix of identical elements.

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Gross Capital Formation Capital Formation: Assets & Commodities 1.Investment by commodities = Row sum of Capital Formation matrix (Statistics Austria) for 2000: 2.Link between Investment (industries*assets) I A,2000 as in WP3 and Investment (industries*commodities) Commodity shares of assets w ikj (by i commodities, k assets and j industries) 3.Adjusting the row sum by r i (e.g. 1995) and then adjust in order to guarantee VI* i = VI NA * i Matrix of identical elements.

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Gross Capital Formation Concordance of Assets & Commodities in Austria Input for the Commodity shares of assets Includes NACE categories that are non-zero in the Austrian Matrix of investment industries * commodities

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First Empirical Results for Austria Data Availability (IOTs and SUTs): 1990 (ESA 1979), 1995,1997,1999,2000, 2001. - Filling the gaps: 1996 and 1998 - Using 1990 only as a benchmark for results - Backcasting from 1995 to 1976 - Problems: External Trade Data before 1988, Estimating Trade & Transport Margins and Taxes less Subsidies on Products, FISIM (not only a reallocation, but a change in the output level of NACE 65)

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First Empirical Results for Austria Total or Intermediate Demand ? Change in %, 1995 - 2000

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First Empirical Results for Austria Total or Intermediate Demand ? Change in %, 1995 - 2000

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First Empirical Results for Austria Row adjustment factor ( r i ), Private Consumption 1976

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First Empirical Results for Austria Row adjustment factor ( r i ), Private Consumption 1976

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First Empirical Results for Austria Sum adjustment factor ( f )

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First Empirical Results for Austria Row adjustment factor ( r i ), Gross Capital Formation 1995

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Further Empirical Work for Austria - Full backcasting to 1976 of final demand categories plus imports with established methodology - Extra/intrapolation of commodity output (supply matrices) - Estimation of time series of trade&transport margins and taxes less subsidies - Implementing the input structure data to achieve a first guess of intermediate demand matrix - Application of RAS to the intermediate demand matrix

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