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Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Policymaking for Innovation: the Role of Distributed Intelligence Stefan Kuhlmann Fraunhofer Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Policymaking for Innovation: the Role of Distributed Intelligence Stefan Kuhlmann Fraunhofer Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Policymaking for Innovation: the Role of Distributed Intelligence Stefan Kuhlmann Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Karlsruhe, Germany 1

2 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Overview Analysing the dynamics of innovation systems From mechanistic" to reflexive" innovation strategies and policymaking Arenas for decision-making Strategic Intelligence (SI) for Innovation Strategy and Policy: tools General requirements of SI Application of SI (examples) Fictions of future use of Distributed Intelligence SI infrastructures for Distributed Intelligence 2

3 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Focus: Dynamics of Innovation Systems Economic system, globalising, prod. & services Political system and state, europeanising Education and science system, europeanising Innovation system (hybrid) Co-evolution 3

4 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI From "Mechanistic" to Reflexive" Innovation Strategies and Policymaking (I) Strategy targets:from competitiveness of single companies, to linking science & industry, to modernisation of holdings, sectors, regions, and national "innovation systems (e.g. interdisciplinary instit.), to post-national strategies across levels (in EU), to socio-economic change and sustainable development Potential impacts/benefits: from r&d results, to innovative products/processes, to raising awareness of innovation needs, to increasing learning and "absorptive capacities", to individual and institutional change Policy means:from r&d subsidies to adoption of new technologies, to liaison/brokerage services, to continuing education, to regulatory policies, to multi-purpose, multi-actor initiatives, to post-nationally orchestrated multi-level initiatives 4

5 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Policy actors:from sectoral policymakers/beneficiaries, to industrial innovation networks (increasingly international), to multi-sector/multilevel policy networks (stretching from science through industry and policymakers to consumer orgs. and NGOs) Strategic policy development (public and private): from path dependency/ institutional conservatism, to performance measurement (legitimization) to socio-economic assessment of mid-term performance to reflexive policy learning with contesting stakeholders need for multi-perspective learning, foresight and planning: i.e. Strategic Intelligence (SI)" From "Mechanistic" to "Reflexive" Innovation Strategies and Policymaking (II) 5

6 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Innovation Policy Stakeholders Arena National research ministry Other national ministries Regional govern- ments National parlia- ment EU Com- mission Multi- national companie s SME asso- ciations Industrial asso- ciations Uni- versities National research centers Research councils Contract research institutes Consumer groups Environ- ment groups Differing interests, perspectives and values No dominant player? Contested policies Need for consensus? Strategic Intelligence 6

7 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Innovation Strategy- making Arena of Global Multi-centred Corporations (stylized) Differing interests, perspectives and values Dominant player? Contested strategies Need for consensus? Strategic Intelligence Global Business Area A Head- quarter: strategic leadership Global Business Area B Global Business Area C R&D Head- quarter Competence Center Area A Competence Center Area B Competence Center Area C Key Supplie r 1 Lead User 1 Lead User 2 Key Supplie r 2 External S&T Source 1 External S&T Source 2 7

8 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Distributed Arenas and Strategic Intelligence... Folie 8 Archit1.ppt SI National innovation policy arena A SI National innovation policy arena D Thematic innovation policy arena C SI European innovation policy arena SI Regional innovation policy arena B 8

9 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Dynamics of Innovation Systems and Strategic Intelligence Political system and state, europeanising Economic system, globalising, prod. & services Education and science system, europeanising Innovation system (hybrid) Innovation processes: micro, meso, macro Analyses & methods: Evaluation (ex post, monitoring, ex ante) Delphi, scenarios, TA Policy-analysis Institutional analysis Statist.-econometrical analyses Network analysis Sectors, technologies: retrospectively, prospectively Indicators: corportate data Sectorial techno-eco- -nomic performance Bibliometrics Regulatory data (e.g. norms, standards) Actors: Companies Science Policymakers 9

10 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Strategic Intelligence (SI) for Innovation Strategy and Policy builds on enhanced tools like: Policy & strategy evaluation Technology & society foresight Technology assessment 10

11 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Innovation Policy & Strategy Evaluation State of the art from peer review (ex ante + ex post) to impact analysis; broad variety of methodologies some intractable problems: biased peers; attributionof impacts;... Practical use in policymaking ranging from legitimization of funding, to support for fund allocation decisions... to support for stakeholder-oriented mediation of decisionmaking Enhanced tool for strategic intelligence... e.g. combination of impact evaluation with foresight exercises may improve policy planning... 11

12 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Technology and Society Foresight State of the art standard methods: Delphi, workshops, specific surveys, seminars, etc. - still improving paradoxical nature of TF aiming at conflicting goals: building consensus and preserving variety of visions Practical use in policymaking during 1990s quite trendy in Europe; several major national efforts; partly combined with fund allocation mechanisms big companies develop in-house exercises; SMEs need public initiatives Enhanced tool for strategic intelligence... linking national and regional exercises on European scale linking TF with policy evaluation and TA, e.g. for programme design 12

13 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Technology Assessment State of the art systematic experience since 1970s broad variety of methodologies, but anticipation + control dilemma Practical use in policymaking public service TA: focus on risk assessment private domain TA: picking the winners approach agenda-building TA: seeking for stakeholder consensus for technology development (Constructive TA) Enhanced tool for strategic intelligence... e.g., TA competence (assessing potential techn. impacts) could inform TF exercise 13

14 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Applying Strategic Intelligence: General Requirements Create fora for interaction, negotiation and the preparation of decisions Organize mediation processes and discourses between contesting actors in related policy arena Realize thereby the multiplicity of actor's values and interests Include representatives of less organized or weaker societal groups of society (participatory approach) Inject SI, i.e.policy/strategy evaluation, foresight and TA results, also analyses of changing innovation processes, the dynamics of changing research systems, changing functions of public policies Facilitate a more objective formulation of diverging perceptions by offering appropriate indicators, analyses and information-processing mechanisms 14

15 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Emergence of Strategic Intelligence - the Example of Regional Technology Plans Regional Innovation Policy Arena EU Commission initiating and supporting... Analysis of industrial demand Evaluation of region. initiatives Use of foresight results etc... 15

16 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Combining Foresight Results with Evaluation Purposes - Example: System Evaluation of the Fraunhofer Society (FhG) Example: Life Sciences Competencies of FhG Institutes ( 10 researchers p.a. per 1 institute) Variety of Delphi Visions (Foresight) Potential Research Market (RETIED Index): Need for research infrastructure (RE) Time horizon (TI) Contribution to economic development (ED) 16

17 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Benchmarking of Innovation Clusters - the Example of Nanotechnology Competence Centres Assessment based on experts and indicators Assessment based on indicators Innovation potential = long-term and risky Innovation potential: = short-term and high 17

18 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI An SME Considering a Strategic Techn. Move (fiction) Biomat ® Metagenics ? Ultragenics ? ENDBIT S Regional innovation bureau EU TF bank EU TA bank EU EV bank EU Innovation funding Agency A Agency B Agency C Funding application Leading experts 18

19 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Developing a New EU Technology Programme (fiction) Joint EC/EP Office for Socio- Economic Progs Focused funding for solar-electrical energy technol. ? C 2 Consultanc y Consortium EU Rectors Conferences EV bank Programming consensus conference EU TF bank New EU programme: flexible design + goals Implementation by A.M.R. Association of Mediterranien Regions (A.M.R.) Study: centralized thermal solar techn. 19

20 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI SI Infrastructures for Distributed Strategic Intelligence Create an architecture of infrastructures for Distributed intelligence – but not the one monolithic/top-down system ! Link – via SI infrastructure – the existing regional, national, sectorial etc SI facilities, horizontally and vertically Build brokering nodes managing and maintaining the infrastructure (e.g. IPTS, ESTO,...) Offer a directory favouring direct connections between relevant actors Establish a enabling structure allowing free access to all SI exercises undertaken with public support (register) Define clear rules to access the infrastructure Make the infrastructure robust, able to survive; guarantee adequate resources 20

21 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI EU Research Area requires SI: Identification of centres of excellence (indicators? arenas?) Benchmarking of national research policies (indicators? arenas?) others... Distributed Strategic Intelligence: an Architecture Folie 21 Archit1.ppt SI National innovation policy arena A SI National innovation policy arena D Thematic innovation policy arena C SI European innovation policy arena SI Regional innovation policy arena B Brokering node(s) 21 Quality assurance

22 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Quality Assurance for Distributed Strategic Intelligence Facilitate repeated and fresh exercises and information production (e.g. EV, TF, TA, benchmarking,...) and renewed combinations of actors and levels Support strong professional associations Use informal expert networks (like the Six Countries Programme) Create accreditation mechanisms Support education and training (e.g. postgraduate interdisciplinary studies) 22

23 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI U r s a c h e u n d W i r k u n g. - Vor der Wirkung glaubt man an andere Ursachen als nach der Wirkung. Friedrich Nietzsche, Die fröhliche Wissenschaft, Aphorismus 217, 1882 Cause and impact. - Before any impact you believe in other causes than after the impact. 23

24 Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research ISI Text: Kuhlmann, S. / Boekholt, P. / Georghiou, L. / Guy, K. / Héraud, J.-A. / Laredo. Ph. / Lemola, T. / Loveridge, D. / Luukkonen, T. / Polt, W. / Rip, A. / Sanz-Menendez, L. / Smits, R.: Improving Distributed Intelligence in Complex Innovation Systems. Final report of the Advanced Science & Technology Policy Planning Network (ASTPP), a Thematic Network of the European Targeted Socio-Economic Research Programme (TSER), Brussels/Luxembourg 1999 (Office for Official Publications of the European Communities) (download 24


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