Transformative Technologies and the Internationalization of R&D Geoff Nimmo Industry Canada
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Central Thesis Transformative technologies do more than change industrial processes. They change entire infrastructures, including governance and regulation. They do this in uneven ways, leaving some sectors unchanged, while destroying and replacing others. This results in a need to develop perspectives that elicit relevant nuances for industrial strategy.
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Outline Technology Dynamics Diffusion of Innovation Institutional Roles Local – Global Developed – Developing Issues Landscape Considerations Roles and Activities Conclusions
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Basic Questions How to manage the public good aspects of science? In what way will biotechnology (and other technologies) be transformative? Are radical changes in public policy needed, or will incremental changes work? Where does burden of proof lie – with the status quo, or with potential future benefits? How will interactions between transformative technologies and existing institutions merge to produce benefits?
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Industrial Technologies (Dynamics I) 1775 180019002000 Technology Intensity 60 Years55 Years50 Years40 Years Waterpower, Textiles, Iron Steam, Rail, Steel ICE, Electricity, Chemicals Aviation, Petrochemicals, Electronics ICT BIO Nano
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Growth Standardization Wide acceptance Impacts understood Developing Rapid development Increased acceptance Growing support structure Early Competing concepts High implementation risk Unknown impacts Industrial Technologies (Dynamics II) Mature Commodity pricing Low risk Full support infrastructure Transformation Zone New vs. Old Risky vs. Safe Unknown vs. Known Opportunity vs. Stagnation
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Diffusion of Innovation Commercialization – Continuity of Interest Value Innovation Production Use Process Flow Information Flow ResearchDevelopmentManufacturingMarketingCustomer SupportEnd User Valley of DeathSales Chasm
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Stakeholders Government Economic development Regulations Intellectual property Conflict resolution Business Research and development Market Development Infrastructure and support Financing Non-Government Organizations Represent specific public interests Rely mainly on influence Can (and do) appear anywhere Driven by principles rather than practical issues LocalNational RegionalGlobal
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Issues Landscape GovernmentBusinessNon-Government Organizations Local National Regional Global Research Develop Manufacture Market Support Use Science as public good Global projects (Genome) Regions (ERA) Natl science agendas Academic support Academia SMEs Incentives for global outsourcing TENSION Scale Spread R&D cost Culture & customs Source of business model Source of Ideas
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Big Science Considerations Global impacts – new life forms, pandemics Implications for global orgs: WTO, WHO, FAO, OECD Large-scale projects (Human Genome) Global assessment tasks – risk management, environment, systems Global problems – security, climate, communications & transportation Roles and Activities Joint priority setting Provide adequate funding Extend/modify treaties
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 National R&D Agendas Considerations Specific national requirements Security, environment, skills, international competitiveness Specific national impacts Environment, legacy industries National values & ethics may differ (EU vs. NA) Regulatory process built into legislation & jurisprudence Temptation to use standards to create dominance Roles and Activities Identify national priorities Co-ordinate R&D efforts Create country linkages within innovation cultures
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Academic Support Considerations Essential for moving science forward Primary domain of pure research Specific areas of expertise Necessary for skills development & economic growth Springboard for national positions in international debates Roles and Activities Participate in local technology clusters Need greater sensitivity to end use of research
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 SMEs Considerations Primary vehicle for new technology exploitation Engine of technological progress Accept costs and risks of product development Subject to threats due to loss of competitive advantage Roles and Activities Need to participate in cluster formation Need to support infrastructure development Maintain & support entrepreneurial posture Focus on business model
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Global Manufacturing Considerations Very cost conscious and competitive Requires availability of labor, skills, resources Takes place locally and globally Offshore manufacturing a major issue Pharmaceuticals exemplify a special case Full supply can be produced in one production run … but there could be many products International co-operation needed to rationalize drug development Roles and Activities Production for global markets a natl strategy May require new patent regimes Integrate with other sectors for bio-economy (energy, agriculture)
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Global Markets Considerations Area of considerable conflict and tension: Local customs, standards and regulations Need to accommodate many interests in one business model Need economies of scale & distribute R&D costs Grey markets, IP protection an issue Strong NGO presence May impact regulations, limit profit potential Roles and Activities Participate in global regulatory regimes Foster adaptability, agility Work with NGOs
Geoff Nimmo – Six Countries Program – Helsinki – June 17-18, 2004 Conclusions Biotechnology experience demonstrates that the evolution and impact of transformative technologies on science and its internationalisation cannot be projected as a straight line from the past Possible long term institutional shifts that will lead to increased internationalisation in regulatory science, and perhaps large scale public good projects Incentives for the private sector to engage in many of the core areas of human health and agriculture have been reduced and the costs increased Despite being the targets of resistance, MNEs are more likely to benefit from the institutional shifts than SMEs Developing countries could leapfrog up the development ladder more rapidly through superior institutional readiness for transformative technologies This could lead to a rethinking of the role of R&D in the acceleration of economic development in the the developing world