1. Enhanced Strategic Planning

2. Alcohol Risk Factors Protective Factors Workgroup Input Develop Action Plan What? (Prevalen ce) Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors ) Why Here? Local factors Implementation Evaluation

3. Alcohol What? (Prevalence)

4. Just like Chicken Little - Problems often seem to fall from the sky. or in the case of prevention planning.. from the survey.

5. What we measure is often determined by what we are concerned about or (in some cases), someone else’s pre-determined concerns or priorities. Groups are then formed because of that issue/problem.

6. Alcohol Risk Factors Protective Factors What? (Prevalenc e) Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors)

7. Interventions are usually planned based only on prevalence of risk and protective factors. Unfortunately… this is where most planning stops.

9. For Example……

10. Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320

11. Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 12.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 87.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

12. Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 12.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 87.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 63% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

13. Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 12.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 87.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 63% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

14. Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 12.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 87.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 63% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.56 times more likely (63%/22.3%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

15. Antisocial Behavior Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 6.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 93.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 64% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 24.8% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.56 times more likely (64%/24.8%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

16. Friends Use Drugs Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 13.1% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 86.9% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 57% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 23.0% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.48 times more likely (57%/23%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

17. Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 18.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 81.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 50% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.24 times more likely (50%/22.3%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

18. Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 13.8% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 86.2% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 52.3% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 23.6% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who perceive their parents have attitudes that favor drug use were 2.2 times more likely (52.3%/23.6%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

19. Lack of rewards for Pro-social Involvement in the Community Anystate, USA Total number of Students surveyed: N=320 32.5% of students surveyed scored at the risk level 64.5% of students surveyed did not score at the risk level 27.8% of students who scored at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days. 26.9% of students who did not score at the risk level reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days Therefore… Students who lack rewards for pro- social involvement in their community were less likely (27.8%/26.9%) to report drinking in the last 30 days PrevalencePrediction of Problem Behavior

20. Alcohol Risk Factors Protective Factors Workgroup Input What? (Prevalen ce) Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors) Why Here? Local factors

21. Use the measurement of “why” (statistical relationship of the prevalence of the risk and protective factors and their prediction of the problem behavior) What level of each factor predicts what level of each problem Focused discussion of factors and why these factors are happening here : “Why here” and “Why now”

22. Anytown USA Rating High School Students - 2011 N=320 (1-10) Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Antisocial Behavior (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Friend Use Drugs (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (Protective Factor– Peer/Individual Domain) Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (Risk Factor – Family Domain) Perceived Availability of Drugs (Risk Factor – Community Domain) Sensation Seeking (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Business Parent Civic/Volunteer Religious/Fraternal Healthcare School Law Enforcement State/Local/Tribal Government Media Youth Other Substance Abuse Youth-Serving Organization Anytown USA Strategic Planning Factor Rankings –I (Importance Scale) Give each of the following factors a score from 1 to 10 to represent how significant or important it is as a problem in your community. A score of 1 represents little or no significance and a score of 10 means it is a very significant problem for your sector. Rate each factor separately. More than one factor can have the same rating or score. Date of Rating _______________________________________________ Rater name __________________________________________________ Rater sector (Check all that apply) Other ___________________________________________________________

24. Aware of the issue. Concerned about the issue. Informed about the issue. Motivated to act. Informed about strategies. Committed to action. Informed of results.

25. Anytown USA Rating High School Students - 2011 N=320 (1-10) Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Antisocial Behavior (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Friend Use Drugs (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (Protective Factor– Peer/Individual Domain) Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (Risk Factor – Family Domain) Perceived Availability of Drugs (Risk Factor – Community Domain) Sensation Seeking (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Business Parent Civic/Volunteer Religious/Fraternal Healthcare School Law Enforcement State/Local/Tribal Government Media Youth Other Substance Abuse Youth-Serving Organization Anytown USA Strategic Planning Factor Rankings –II (Viability Scale) Give each of the following factors a score from 1 to 10 to represent the extent to which your community “ready to influence” the factor if resources were available. A score of 1 represents little or no significance and a score of 10 means it is a very significant problem for your sector. Rate each factor separately. More than one factor can have the same rating or score. Other ___________________________________________________________ Date of Rating _______________________________________________ Rater name __________________________________________________ Rater sector (Check all that apply)

27. Alcohol Risk Factors Protective Factors Workgrou p Input Develop Action Plan What? (Prevalen ce ) Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors ) Why Here? Local factors Implemen tation

28. Step 1: Combine the rankings Step 2: Combine with prediction Step 3: Combine with prevalence

29. Anytown USAPrevAlcoholWeighted High School Students - 2010FactorRank Rate IRate IIScore Sensation Seeking (R22-PI)32.2%173125.75 Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (P8-PI)18.8%541236.00 Friend Use Drugs (R21-PI)13.1%143466.75 Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (R19-PI)12.8%151847.00 Lack Opportunities for Prosocial Involvement (P1-C)21.9%2191149.00 Favorable Attitudes Toward Antisocial Beh (R18-PI)16.6%91614912.00 Lack of Supervision and Rules (R6-F)20.0%32451812.50 Antisocial Behavior (R17-PI)6.9%24291612.75 Perceived Availability of Drugs (R5-C)12.8%16662312.75 Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (R10-F)13.8%125132112.75

30. Identify evidence-based prevention programs and strategies selected for each factor There should be a logical link between the community need and the selected program or strategies and ultimately the proposed outcomes. Evidence-based programs can be supplemented with other programs as long as those programs have been evaluated and are based on evidence- based approaches.

32. Some sites provide evidence-based programs that link directly to risk and protective factors. For example… Problem behavior: underage drinking Favorable attitudes toward drug use Life Skills Training Program Reduction in favorable attitudes drug use Results in reduced in reduced alcohol use

33. Not all sites link evidence-based programs to risk and protective factors. There are some factors that have no evidence- based programs. However, some have indirect effects. eg: antisocial behavior Problem behavior: violence Anti-social behavior Olweus Bullying Prevention Program OBBP leads to a reduction in bullying Results in reduced ant-social behavior Reduced bullying leads to reduced violence

34. Not all sites link evidence-based programs to risk and protective factors. Example some sites like NREPP provide details on the developmental research and effective principles of prevention. These principles can be used to develop new strategies.

35. Alcohol Risk Factors Protective Factors Workgroup Input Develop Action Plan What? (Prevalenc e) Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors) Why Here? Local factors Implementation Evaluation

36. Answers the question – “What happened… …compared to what would have happened?”

37. Process… What did you do… Outputs Outcomes… What changed… Compared to? Why?

38. Re-measure what was measured in needs assessment. Add new measures as needed. Strategy-specific protocols. Process measures are critical. If you didn’t do what you said you would do… you can’t attribute cause to change.

39. Organizations have the tendency to do what other communities are doing to address the same problem in their community. The risk and protective factors that predict that problem for your young people may not be the same as in that community, the interventions are not successful. The problem? Therefore,

40. 1.You can complete the planning process in a limited number of sessions (six). 2.The planning is focused. 3.The planning is efficient. 4.You get real involvement and buy-in from members/partners. You move from the “solution of the week” based on the “problem of the day” to a Quantitative-based strategic planning process

41. Rob Lillis Evalumetrics Research rlillis@rochester.rr.com Lynne Gochenaur Marcus Whitman School District lgochenaur@mwcsd.org