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Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems www.rubicode.net Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE)

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Presentation on theme: "Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems www.rubicode.net Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE) Drivers of Ecosystem Service Provision For further information contact Mark Rounsevell ( Funded under the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme Contract Number:

2 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems What are drivers? Drivers (indirect drivers*) are the underlying causes of change in ecosystems. They are exogenous to the ecosystem and are described using narrative storylines. Pressures (direct drivers*) are the variables that quantify the relevant drivers. They are endogenous to the ecosystem and are represented in scenarios. For the purpose of this discussion we will consider both drivers and pressures. * Millenium Ecosystem Assessment terminology

3 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Types of drivers Drivers (indirect drivers)Pressures (direct drivers) Demography Economy Socio-political Scientific and technological Culture and religion Land use/cover change (e.g. agricultural expansion or reduction, urban expansion, land and soil degradation, deforestation, habitat fragmentation) Harvest and resource consumption, including over- exploitation (e.g. wood extractions, mining, fishing and harvesting of species) Species introduction/removal (e.g. invasives, GM organisms, removal of fish) Climate variability and change (e.g. temperature, precipitation, sea level, extremes, forest fires) Air pollution (e.g. greenhouse gases, acidification, CO 2 enrichment) External inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers, pest control chemicals) Natural, physical, biological (e.g. volcanoes, evolution) War (e.g. testing and usage of weaponry and bombs)

4 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Review of drivers Synthesised existing knowledge on drivers of environmental change in order to highlight commonalities, strengths and limitations. Demography is the most referenced and discussed indirect driver of environmental change. Land use and cover change, and climate variability and change are the most commonly referenced direct drivers. Natural, physical and biological phenomena, diseases and wars are the least discussed direct drivers. The majority of studies focus on one spatial scale exclusively. Confusion over differing definitions and terminology needs to be addressed to facilitate the rapid exchange of comparable information. Source: Anastasopoulou et al. (2007).

5 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems What are scenarios? Explorations of possible or plausible futures, for which an underlying set of assumptions have been made. They are used to demonstrate the drivers underpinning uncertain futures and in showing the consequences to policy-makers. They are not predictions!!

6 Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3 After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310 (5752),

7 Source: Busch, G. (2007). Future European agricultural landscapes - What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Change in European cropland areas for a range of scenario studies Global studies = 1, 2 (Image), 3, 4, 5 Regional studies = 6 (Ateam), 7 (Eururalis)

8 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Frameworks for driver assessment: DPSIR DRIVERS PRESSURES STATE IMPACT RESPONSE Indicators Impact Assessment Feedback Policy Adaptation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as used by the European Environment Agency Quantitative Scenarios Qualitative storylines

9 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Multiple Drivers Service Providers People SES 1 SES 2 SES … Social-ecological systems Ecosystem Services A simple representation of the relationships between drivers, socio-ecological systems and ecosystem services Source: Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dawson, T.P. and Harrison, P.A. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation

10 Framework for the Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP) Drivers e.g. Economy Demography Society Technology (exogenous) Pressures e.g. Climate change Land use change Air pollution (endogenous) States Ecosystem service beneficiaries (ESB) Supporting system Ecosystem service providers (ESP) Impact on service provision Responses Policy, strategic decisions and management strategies Baseline/Futures Service Providing Units (SPUs) Valuation of services and alternatives Trade-offs Mitigation Social-Ecological System Adaptation

11 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries Services, as a concept, are only relevant within the context of service beneficiaries. The attributes of the beneficiaries, as a component part of an ecosystem, are as important as the ecological attributes.

12 Step 1 Define ESBs, their attributes, conflicts and level of service demand Step 2 Define services provided to ESBs and their spatio- temporal scale Step 3 Define ESPs, their service supply attributes and supporting systems Step 4 Define the drivers and pressures that affect the ESPs and ESBs Step 5 Quantify impacts on services Step 6 Valuation of service provision and alternatives Step 7 Assess responses (mitigation and adaptation) Steps in implementing the FESP approach Source: Rounsevell et al. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation.

13 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Source: Hougner et al. (2006). Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park. Ecological Economics, 59: An example: seed dispersal in the Stockholm National Urban Park

14 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems The acorn dispersal service 85 % of oaks in the park are estimated to result from natural regeneration by the European jay (Garrulus glandarius) How many pairs of jays does it take to provide this service? The answer is 12 jay pairs per year over 14 years

15 Drivers Macroeconomics, EU regulations/policies Global climate change Consumer trends Technology (exogenous) Pressures Land cover changes Local climate, Local air, water, soil pollution Alien species, Increases/decreases in visitors (endogenous) Responses Protection policies Seeding/planting regimes Provision of cultural & aesthetic services States Oaks & Coniferous forest (Supporting) Jays (ESP) The Stockholm Urban Park (Socio-ecological system) Urban Population (ESB) SPU threshold (12 breeding pairs) Valuation of alternatives Storylines Adaptation (application/ implementation) Scenarios Trade-offs Planting or seeding by humans = 16,800 /jay pair Mitigation policy

16 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Adaptation & mitigation in FESP Identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation to the environmental change problem through the effect of response strategies on specific pressure or state variables. Mitigation seeks to reduce the severity of the pressures (e.g. use of irrigation to offset yield losses due to reduced precipitation). Adaptation addresses the capacity of the system to cope with changing pressures (e.g. changing crop planting dates to account for changing growing seasons). The social-ecological system is bounded hence responses cannot (normally) influence external drivers. However, society can choose to internalise drivers (e.g. CAP maintains European food security by decoupling global markets (external) from agricultural prices).

17 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Sustainable properties of dynamic systems Exogenous Endogenous

18 Time State Time State STABILITY (steady state) Endogenous, pressures RESILIENCE Exogenous perturbations or drivers Cyclical stability Constant stability Resistance Perturbation/driver Resilience New Steady State? Robustness

19 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Properties of Durability (endogenous) and Robustness (exogenous) arise from a systems response to a chronic or enduring pressure Time State Shifting trend No Steady State Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous)

20 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems Research needs Promotion of consistency in the definition of system boundaries (and the associated exogenous drivers and endogenous pressures). Identification of those components of scenarios where uncertainty can be quantified and which variables have high or low uncertainty. Development of participatory approaches to scenario construction that builds on a range of stakeholder perspectives. Development of scenarios of drivers/pressures that effect ecosystem service beneficiaries. Development of conditional probabilistic futures. Development of shock or wildcard scenarios.


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