Presentation on theme: "Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems"— Presentation transcript:
1 Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE)Drivers of Ecosystem Service ProvisionFor further information contact Mark Rounsevell (Funded under the European CommissionSixth Framework ProgrammeContract Number:
2 What are drivers?Drivers (indirect drivers*) are the underlying causes of change in ecosystems. They are exogenous to the ecosystem and are described using narrative storylines.Pressures (direct drivers*) are the variables that quantify the relevant drivers. They are endogenous to the ecosystem and are represented in scenarios.For the purpose of this discussion we will consider both drivers and pressures.* Millenium Ecosystem Assessment terminology
3 Types of drivers Drivers (indirect drivers) Pressures (direct drivers) DemographyEconomySocio-politicalScientific and technologicalCulture and religionLand use/cover change (e.g. agricultural expansion or reduction, urban expansion, land and soil degradation, deforestation, habitat fragmentation)Harvest and resource consumption, including over-exploitation (e.g. wood extractions, mining, fishing and harvesting of species)Species introduction/removal (e.g. invasives, GM organisms, removal of fish)Climate variability and change (e.g. temperature, precipitation, sea level, extremes, forest fires)Air pollution (e.g. greenhouse gases, acidification, CO2 enrichment)External inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers, pest control chemicals)Natural, physical, biological (e.g. volcanoes, evolution)War (e.g. testing and usage of weaponry and bombs)
4 Review of driversSynthesised existing knowledge on drivers of environmental change in order to highlight commonalities, strengths and limitations.Demography is the most referenced and discussed indirect driver of environmental change.Land use and cover change, and climate variability and change are the most commonly referenced direct drivers.Natural, physical and biological phenomena, diseases and wars are the least discussed direct drivers.The majority of studies focus on one spatial scale exclusively.Confusion over differing definitions and terminology needs to be addressed to facilitate the rapid exchange of comparable information.Source: Anastasopoulou et al. (2007).
5 What are scenarios?Explorations of possible or plausible futures, for which an underlying set of assumptions have been made.They are used to demonstrate the drivers underpinning uncertain futures and in showing the consequences to policy-makers.They are not predictions!!
6 Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310 (5752),
7 Change in European cropland areas for a range of scenario studies Global studies= 1, 2 (Image),3, 4, 5Regional studies = 6 (Ateam),7 (Eururalis)Source: Busch, G. (2007). Future European agricultural landscapes - What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
8 Frameworks for driver assessment: DPSIR DRIVERSPRESSURESSTATEIMPACTRESPONSEIndicatorsImpactAssessmentFeedbackPolicyAdaptationOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as used by the European Environment AgencyQuantitativeScenariosQualitativestorylines
9 A simple representation of the relationships between drivers, socio-ecological systems and ecosystem servicesSocial-ecological systemsSES …SES 2SES 1MultipleDriversEcosystemServicesServiceProvidersPeopleSource: Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dawson, T.P. and Harrison, P.A. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation
10 Framework for the Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP) Social-Ecological SystemStatesSupportingsystemService Providing Units(SPUs)Driverse.g. EconomyDemographySocietyTechnology(exogenous)Baseline/FuturesEcosystemservice beneficiaries(ESB)Ecosystemserviceproviders(ESP)Pressurese.g. Climate changeLand use changeAir pollution(endogenous)Impactonservice provisionAdaptationBaseline/FuturesValuation of services and alternativesResponsesPolicy, strategic decisions and managementstrategiesMitigationTrade-offs
11 Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries Services, as a concept, are only relevant within the context of service beneficiaries.The attributes of the beneficiaries, as a component part of an ecosystem, are as important as the ecological attributes.
12 Steps in implementing the FESP approach Define ESBs, their attributes, conflicts and level of service demandSteps in implementing the FESP approachStep 2Define services provided to ESBs and their spatio-temporal scaleStep 3Define ESPs, their service supply attributes and supporting systemsStep 4Define the drivers and pressures that affect the ESPs and ESBsStep 7Assess responses (mitigation and adaptation)Step 5Quantify impacts on servicesStep 6Valuation of service provision and alternativesSource: Rounsevell et al. (in review).A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation.
13 An example: seed dispersal in the Stockholm National Urban Park Source: Hougner et al. (2006). Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park. Ecological Economics, 59:
14 The acorn dispersal service 85 % of oaks in the park are estimated to result from natural regeneration by the European jay (Garrulus glandarius)How many pairs of jays does it take to provide this service?The answer is 12 jay pairs per year over 14 years
15 The Stockholm Urban Park (Socio-ecological system) StatesOaks &Coniferousforest(Supporting)DriversMacroeconomics,EU regulations/policiesGlobal climate changeConsumer trendsTechnology(exogenous)SPU threshold(12 breedingpairs)ScenariosUrbanPopulation(ESB)Jays(ESP)PressuresLand cover changesLocal climate,Local air, water, soil pollutionAlien species,Increases/decreases in visitors(endogenous)Provision of cultural& aestheticservicesStorylinesThis framework is briefly illustrated in this slide using the example shown in slide 7 for the seed dispersal service provided by Eurasian jays in Stockholm urban park. The exogeneous drivers include macroeconomics, global climate change, consumer trends and EU policies. These alter one or more of the pressures, such as local climate and changes in visitor numbers to the park, which have a direct influence on the ecosystem service. The ecosystem service provider is defined as the jays themselves, which require the oaks and coniferous forest (for nesting) as supporting habitats, and the ecosystem service beneficiaries are the urban population of Stockholm supplemented by tourists. The Service Providing Unit which defines the threshold for providing the service at the level required by the beneficiaries is 12 jay pairs, so if the number of jays falls below this threshold it will lead to an impact on the provision of the cultural and aesthetic services provided by the urban park. The cost of alternatives, such as seeding or planting by humans, was calculated as nearly 17,000 Euros per jay pair. This informs the evaluation of possible responses, including continued investment in management that safeguards the jay population at a level suitable for the continued and successfully regeneration of oak forest.Planting orseeding byhumans= 16,800€/jay pairAdaptation(application/implementation)Valuation ofalternativesResponsesProtection policiesSeeding/planting regimesMitigation policyTrade-offs
16 Adaptation & mitigation in FESP Identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation to the environmental change problem through the effect of response strategies on specific pressure or state variables.Mitigation seeks to reduce the severity of the pressures (e.g. use of irrigation to offset yield losses due to reduced precipitation).Adaptation addresses the capacity of the system to cope with changing pressures (e.g. changing crop planting dates to account for changing growing seasons).The social-ecological system is bounded hence responses cannot (normally) influence external drivers.However, society can choose to ‘internalise’ drivers (e.g. CAP maintains European food security by decoupling global markets (external) from agricultural prices).
17 Sustainable properties of dynamic systemsExogenousEndogenous
18 Exogenous perturbations or drivers TimeStateCyclicalstabilitySTABILITY(steady state)Endogenous, pressuresConstantstabilityTimeStatePerturbation/driverRESILIENCEExogenous perturbations or driversNewSteadyState?ResistanceRobustnessResilience
19 Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous) Properties of Durability (endogenous) and Robustness (exogenous) arise from a systems response to a chronic or enduring pressureTimeStateNo SteadyStateShifting trendExamples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous)
20 Research needsPromotion of consistency in the definition of system boundaries (and the associated exogenous drivers and endogenous pressures).Identification of those components of scenarios where uncertainty can be quantified and which variables have high or low uncertainty.Development of participatory approaches to scenario construction that builds on a range of stakeholder perspectives.Development of scenarios of drivers/pressures that effect ecosystem service beneficiaries.Development of conditional probabilistic futures.Development of shock or ‘wildcard’ scenarios.