Presentation on theme: "Capital Markets Roundtable Historic Tax Credit Developers Conference Friday, February 8, 2008 St. Petersburg Beach, Florida."— Presentation transcript:
Capital Markets Roundtable Historic Tax Credit Developers Conference Friday, February 8, 2008 St. Petersburg Beach, Florida
General Economic Conditions GDP slows to 0.6% in fourth quarter – nearly flat January 2008 nonfarm payrolls decline for the first time since August 2003 Inflation rises at a 2.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace of inflation in six quarters
General Economic Conditions The Fed has now cut rates five times by a cumulative 2.25 percentage points. Many economists think we face a potentially serious recession The stimulus package – too little, too late?
Markets Bursting Bubbles – Existing home sales at lowest levels in 9 years – down 13%. – Home prices – National median price declines for the first time in the 40-year history of survey. No hard data before that but probably the first decline since the Great Depression. What does this mean for the apartment sector? Commercial real estate in general?
The Subprime Debacle (reported write-downs since Q3 2007) Merrill Lynch$20.5bCredit Agricole 2.3 Citigroup*20.1Bear Stearns 1.9 UBS 13.7Credit Suisse 1.9 Morgan Stanley 10.3JP Morgan Chase 1.6 Bank of America*9.4Goldman Sachs 1.5 HSBC 3.4Wachovia Bank 1.1 Deutsche Bank 3.1Lehman Bros. 0.8 Barclays 2.7 Total: 96.9 Royal Bank of Scotland 2.6 Source: Marketwatch: Data: Companies, since Q3. 2007 * Est.
The Subprime Debacle Many of these companies are investors in and lenders to HTC deals. Will demand be affected? How about pricing, terms and underwriting?
The Credit Crunch How has it affected commercial real estate? Tighter underwriting What property types are lenders/investors staying away from? What geographic areas?