1. Evaluation of CONCEPTS Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems Greg Smith 1, Christiane Beaudoin 1, Alain Caya 1, Mark Buehner 1, Francois Roy 2, Jean-Marc Belanger 1, Frederic Dupont 1, Fraser Davidson 3, Jennifer Wells 3, Tom Carrieres 4, Hal Ritchie 5, Youyu Lu 6, Charles-Emmanuel Testut 7 and Gilles Garric 7 1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA 2 Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA 3 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA 4 Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, CANADA 5 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, CANADA 6 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford, CANADA 7 Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, FRANCE GODAE Oceanview Workshop, Santa Cruz, USA (Jun 13-17, 2011)

2. Outline Operational Gulf of St. Lawrence Coupled Atmosphere- Ice-Ocean Forecasting System CONCEPTS Objectives Global Forecasting System –Evaluation with AVHRR and Radarsat NW Atlantic/Arctic Forecasting System –Evaluation against IMS analyses Future Work and Interests

3. The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) Coupled Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS-CGSL) -5°C -15°C -25°C Operational regional forecasting system (GEM- Ops) has tendency to overestimate cold events in winter. Increased heat fluxes in coupled system buffers air temperatures and improves forecasts Demonstrates importance of air-sea-ice coupling even for short-range weather forecasts Coupled GSL system now operational at CMC –as of last week! S. Desjardins

4. CONCEPTS Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems Aim: –Development of Regional and Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems –Global coupled medium-to-monthly forecasting system: ▪GEM atmospheric model and 4DVAR/EnKF analysis system ▪Coupled to 1/4° resolution (ORCA025) NEMO ice-ocean model ▪Ocean initialized using Mercator analysis system (PSY3) ▪Initially: produce 10 day uncoupled ice-ocean forecasts –Regional short-term forecasting system ▪Preparation and issuing service for MET/NAVAREAS 17&18 ▪Build on developments made by CNOOFS (F. Davidson et al.) ▪Coupled to CMC regional forecasting system (RDPS) ▪Based on subdomain of ORCA12 for NW Atlantic + Arctic

5. CONCEPTS Global - V0 Ice-ocean model: –NEMO v3.1 : OPA9 ocean model and LIM2-EVP sea ice –ORCA025: Global tri-polar 1/4° resolution Atmospheric forcing from GEM Global (GDPS; 33km) –Forced using CORE bulk formula –3hrly forcing frequency (including diurnal cycle) Initialization: –Ice and ocean fields taken from Mercator (PSY3V2) analysis Output: –Weekly 10-day forecasts of ocean and ice fields

6. Comparison with AVHRR SST observations Differences taken between AVHRR SST data and hourly output from weekly forecasts. Statistics accumulated for each day for forecasts made from May 20, 2009 to Mar 23, 2010. Results shown for day 10 of forecasts Poor coverage in polar regions and due to cloud cover Mean Std. dev. Number of comparisons F. Roy

7. Comparison with AVHRR SST observations Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Day 1Day 10 Development of warm bias

8. Comparison with AVHRR SST observations Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Day 1Day 10 Cold bias present in analysis

9. Regional RMS differences with AVHRR SST CMC SST analysis has smaller RMS diff for day1 Similar error growth in both persistence curves Forecast beat persistence of analysis for most regions Forecasts show smaller diff as compared to persistence of CMC SST analyses for N. Atl, N. Pac and T. Ind. Forecasts Persistence of SAM2 analyses Persistence of CMC analyses

10. CONCEPTS Global V1 AIM: Produce daily analyses and 10day forecasts. Based on PSY3V2, with following modifications: –Updated SAM2 to NEMOv3.1, with LIM2-EVP(done) –Assimilate CMC-SST analysis (in place of RTG)(done) –Ocean analysis merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis (done) –Daily analysis updates (planned) Status: –Modifications to SAM2 ongoing –Routine production of ice-ocean analyses since Dec. 2010 –Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway –Starting initial trials of coupled runs.

11. CMC/CIS Sea-ice Analysis System Uses 3DVAR-FGAT, with covariances obtained from EnKF North American Analysis: Four analyses per day of ice concentration at 5 km resolution Global Analysis: two analyses per day on 10km grid Currently assimilates: SSM/I, AMSR-E, CIS daily charts, RadarSAT image analyses Work in progress to add: SSMIS, scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations M. Buehner SSM/IAMSR-E CIS Chart RadarSAT

12. Verification against NOAA IMS analyses Evaluation of 5km North American analyses Based on contingency tables values Uses threshold of 0.4 for ice/noice Overestimation of ice cover in CMC operational analysis during melt M. Buehner

13. CONCEPTS Global V1 AIM: Produce daily analyses and 10day forecasts. Based on PSY3V2, with following modifications: –Updated SAM2 to NEMOv3.1, with LIM2-EVP(done) –Assimilate CMC-SST analysis (in place of RTG)(done) –Ocean analysis merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis (done) –Daily analysis updates (planned) Status: –Modifications to SAM2 ongoing –Routine production of ice-ocean analyses since Dec. 2010 –Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway –Starting initial trials of coupled runs.

14. Comparison with PSY3V2R2 Difference after 28 cycles (valid 20091125) Cycle started 20090513 Impact of changes to SST assimilation Difference in SSS due to relaxation timescale, atm forcing and ice assimilation

15. Verification against Radarsat Evaluation of 30 day ice forecasts Model appears to have some skill in predicting mean ice cover, but ice dynamics is still a challenge… Careful analysis required to understand small-scale details represented in Radarsat image analyses CIS Radarsat image analysis Labrador Sea Model (mean error) Model (std. dev.) Persistence of CMCICE (mean error) Persistence of CMCICE (std dev)

16. CONCEPTS Regional forecasting system C-NOOFS: Canadian-Newfoundland Operational Oceanographic Forecasting System Lead: F. Davidson (NAFC) Produces daily 10-day forecasts at 1/12° resolution for the Northwest Atlantic Initialized using Mercator data assimilation system (PSY2). Merged with 3DVAR-FGAT ice analysis Designed to meet needs of Coast Guard and Navy, as well as variety of applications influenced by sea ice C-NOOFS

17. CNOOFS Comparison with Spring Survey Comparison of bottom temperature from 2010 Spring Survey of Grand Banks for –NWA025 (~PSY3V2R2) –NWA12 (~PSY2V3R1) F. Davidson

18. EC/MSC’s involvement in METAREA’s Development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system in support of METAREA monitoring and warnings. Development of short-term marine forecast system using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component modelling (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean, wave) and data assimilation system To predict: - Near Surface atmospheric conditions, - Sea ice (concentration, pressure, drift, ice edge) - Freezing spray, - Waves, and - Ocean conditions (temperature and currents) Improved Arctic monitoring

19. Regional Coupled Forecasting System Build on CNOOFS and Coupled GSL Develop coupled forecasting system for N. America/Arctic Couple NEMO to GEM regional (10km) 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18 with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF 1/12 th regional SAM2 Produce 48hr weather and marine forecasts C-NOOFS 1/12° GEM RDPS 10km

20. Plans and interests CONCEPTS Global: –Running 1/4° global 10day forecasting system since Dec. 2010 –Operational transfer in coming year –Next steps: ▪produce daily analyses and ▪improve consistency of ice and ocean analyses CONCEPTS Regional –Develop/evaluate N.Atl/Arctic coastal 1/12 th NEMO –Begin work on 1/12 th regional data assimilation system Evaluation and intercomparison of ice-covered waters –Ice thickness (Radarsat, Cryosat, AVHRR) –Marginal ice zone (MIZ) –How can ice rheologies be improved to better represent fine-scale ice deformations over short lead times? –How do we constrain the ocean under-ice and in the MIZ?