Presentation on theme: "A National Town Meeting on Demand Response Chairman Barry T. Smitherman Public Utility Commission June 3, 2008."— Presentation transcript:
A National Town Meeting on Demand Response Chairman Barry T. Smitherman Public Utility Commission June 3, 2008
2 There is no question that the demand for energy in our state is escalating. Texas is attracting new business and citizens daily. In fact, our population is expected to double in the next 30 years. We cannot afford to replicate the rolling blackouts experienced on the West Coast that might leave business, industry and our citizens without power. One thousand newcomers make Texas their new home every day, meaning we will need to increase electricity generation nearly 50 percent by 2030. To keep pace with the growing demand, we must diversify our energy sources. This diversity will enable us to manage emissions and provide adequate power for our state. Fossil fuels remain essential to our energy profile, but they should be supplemented by wind, water, solar, biomass and nuclear energy. A balanced portfolio will provide energy stability and a prosperous Texas economy in the decades to come. We have already surpassed California as the nations leading producer of wind energy. Advances in technology also have made nuclear power safer and cleaner. Our state is currently home to four nuclear generation facilities, but more are needed to help satisfy our growing energy needs. I also believe coal must play a role in our future energy portfolio, generating power as cleanly as technology will allow. When God gave mankind dominion over the Earth, we all became its stewards. That is why Texas will continue to pioneer innovative technologies while balancing the use of traditional energy sources to boost our states economy. Texas Governor Rick Perry Strong growth means increased use of energy at a pace that can strain the capacity to supply what is needed at a reasonable price. This highlights two urgent questions: how to use energy without producing excess greenhouse gasses that create disruptive conditions on a global scale; and how to reduce the threat to national security from excess dependence on oil. Former Secretary of State George P. Schultz [To meet global energy needs], we are going to need everything Graham Allison, Director of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Belfer Center for International Affairs
3 Energy consumption in the modern world means fossil fuel Source: British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
4 The Most Important Plot for the 21 st Century Source: Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, and British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
5 Quality of life is strongly correlated with electricity consumption United States Canada China India Russia Mexico Japan United Kingdom Germany Australia South Korea Source: CIA World Factbook, 2007
7 Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer, Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2006
8 Three Legs of Resource Adequacy Consumer tools –Advanced meters for demand response –Energy efficiency New Generation –Look at resource mix to meet anticipated load growth –All options must remain on the table, including cleaner coal and nuclear –More renewable generation: wind, solar, biomass, etc. Transmission –New transmission for CREZ –ERCOT transmission study identifies $3 billion of non- CREZ needs Quocunque Jeceris Stabit 'Whichever way you throw me, I stand'
9 There are three electric grids in the U.S. - the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
10 Within Texas, the ERCOT grid serves 85% of the electric load, and covers 75% of the land. ERCOT is connected to the Eastern Interconnect and Mexico by DC ties. Eagle Pass 36 MVA Laredo 100 MW McAllen 150 MW North Tie 200 MW East Tie 600 MW
11 ERCOTs Peak Day (8/17/06) by Fuel Type Coal Nuclear Combined Cycle Gas Turbines Single cycle gas turbines Natural Gas Steam Units Wind DC Tie Generation from private networks not included
16 Source: Merrill Lynch Aggressive
18 ERCOT Reserve Margin Changes 200820092010201120122013 May 200712.6%10.1%8.3%6.7%5.9%n/a December 200713.1%12.1%14.0%11.2%10.5%8.2% May 200813.8%16.5%17.3%15.0%14.5%12.3% Increases in the Reserve Margins for 2008 and 2009 can be attributed to the Sandow and Bosque expansion for 836 MW, South Houston Green Power Expansion for 244 MW, Laredo Peaking Units 4 and 5 for 193 MW, the Victoria Power Station for 332 MW, Cedar Bayou 4 for 544 MW and Winchester Power Park for 178 MW. For 2010 and beyond, the following units have completed interconnection agreements and/or air permits: JK Spruce for 750 MW, Oak Grove 1 and 2 for 1710 MW, and Sandy Creek for 925 MW.
21 New Generation in Texas Nuclear: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has received an application from NRG Energy and CPS Energy for licenses to build two new nuclear reactors at the South Texas Project, the first nuclear power application in nearly 30 years. The NRC also expects application from Luminant Power, Exelon Nuclear, and Amarillo Power. Natural Gas: Companies such as NRG, Calpine, and Navasota Energy have announced construction of new and expanded facilities. Coal: Luminant, CPS and NRG have announced construction of new facilities expected to come on-line within the next four years. Tenaska announced plans for a 660 MW facility in Sweetwater that would capture 90% of CO 2 emissions for use in enhanced oil recovery. South Texas Nuclear Project Source: F. Carter Smith, Bloomberg News
22 Growth of Wind Generation in Texas In 2006, Texas moved ahead of California to lead the nation in wind generation. In ERCOT, there is currently 5,311 MW of installed wind generation capacity. Future projects, as described in the CREZ proceeding, have the potential to add up to 18,000 MW of additional wind capacity in ERCOT. Presently 44,000 MW of wind under review at ERCOT. Wind farm outside of McCamey, Texas
23 Competitive Renewable Energy Zones The Interim Order in Docket No 33672 designated areas of the state where transmission will be built to encourage development of wind generation. In the final order, the Commission will identify the most beneficial and cost- effective transmission improvements necessary to deliver to customers energy generated by renewable resources in the CREZ.
24 MW Tiers for ERCOT CREZ Transmission Optimization Study Scenario 1 (MW) Scenario 2 (MW) Scenario 3 (MW) Scenario 4 (MW) CREZ Wind capacity5,15011, 55317,95617,516 Base Case Wind6,903 Total Wind12, 05318, 45624, 85924, 419 Estimated Transmission cost in $ Billions 2.95 – Plan A 3.78 – Plan B 4.936.835.75
25 New Non-CREZTransmission ERCOTs 2007 Electric System Constraints and Needs Report identified various projects to improve the ERCOT grid over the next five years. These improvements are expected to add or improve 2,538 circuit miles of transmission lines and 14,451 MVA of autotransformer capacity. The projects identified are estimated to cost approximately $3 billion. Some projects may be superseded by lines ordered in the CREZ docket. Source: Ansel Adams, National Archives
26 Distributed Generation: CHP, Solar, Micro-turbines Large scale: Cogeneration or combined heat and power. These facilities produce electricity, and the waste heat is used for heating or other purposes. These facilities achieve high efficiencies and are seen in, for example, industrial facilities, universities, hospitals, or commercial facilities. Excess electricity not used on-site can be sold back onto the grid. Small scale (residential): Solar (photovoltaic or thermal), micro-turbine (wind or natural gas). Allows customers to generate heat or electricity on-site. The Commission is currently working on standards relating to small-scale renewable distributed generation.
27 Tools to Help the Customer Reduce Electric Consumption Energy Efficiency: Incentives paid by the transmission and distribution utilities to energy service companies and other providers of energy efficiency services to offset a portion of the upfront cost associated with energy efficiency measures. Customers can decide on a wide variety of energy efficiency options, and make the best choice for their specific situation. Demand Response and other benefits of advanced meters: Gives customers information on their electric use, allowing them to adjust their consumption based on price signals and emergency situations. With advanced meters, utilities should also have the ability to better monitor the electric system and address disruptions.
28 Nationally, DR may offset 11% of peak demand Additional peak savings would be achieved through energy efficiency Source: Ahmad Faruqui, Ph. D., Brattle Group
Large-Scale Demand Response Programs in ERCOT Load acting as a Resource (LaaR): Customers with interruptible loads that can meet certain performance requirements may be qualified to provide operating reserves under this program. In eligible ancillary services (AS) markets, the value of the LaaR load reduction is equal to that of an increase in generation by a generating plant. In addition, any provider of operating reserves selected through an ERCOT AS market is eligible for a capacity payment, regardless of whether the demand-side resource is actually curtailed. Up to 1300 MW can be deployed through this program. Emergency Interruptible Load Service (EILS): ERCOT selects EILS resources to provide load reduction services under emergency conditions. These load resources may bid to make themselves available for curtailment during an emergency. This service is authorized by PUC Substantive Rule §25.507. Currently, over 200 MW has bid into and been accepted into the EILS program for peak time period (1 PM to 8 PM). EILS resources are only deployed after the LaaRs have been deployed. 29
30 Energy Efficiency Programs Prior to 80 th Legislature, Texas utilities were required to offer programs to reduce annual growth in demand by 10% per year. During 2006, CenterPoints goal was to achieve peak demand reduction of 20,440kW. CenterPoint exceeded this goal by reducing its peak demand by 41,448 kW. TXU Electric Deliverys goal for 2006 was peak demand reduction of 79,149 kW. TXU exceeded this goal with 91,486 kW of peak demand reduction. Texas Will See Greater Efficiency Gaines Going Forward HB 3693 requires utilities to offer energy efficiency programs to reduce annual growth in demand by 10% in 2007, 15% in 2008, and 20% in 2009 and requires the PUC to study whether an increase in the goal to 30% by December 31, 2010, and 50% by December 31, 2015 is achievable. HB 3693 requires, for example, that state facilities use energy efficient lights and equipment, and that any single or multifamily dwelling built with assistance from the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs be built to certain efficiency and conservation measures. PUCT and ERCOT must develop a method for including energy efficiency impacts into ERCOTs CDR.
31 Energy Efficiency Benefits Customers Energy efficiency helps customers lower their long term demand for electricity. There are a wide variety of energy efficiency options and prices for consumers: –Compact fluorescent bulbs and other efficient lighting; –More efficient appliances, such as HVAC, refrigerators, and water heaters (Energy Star); –Weatherization (more insulation, caulking around doors and windows, heat shield on roof, etc.). The customer can decide on the best option for their situation. www.texasefficiency.com provides a link to each utilitys energy efficiency program.www.texasefficiency.com
Potential Energy Efficiency Gains… (peak demand projections) 32
And Costs (Cumulative costs of HB 3693 energy efficiency mandates at $370 per kWh) 33
34 Texas Legislature has recognized the benefits of advanced meters HB 2129 (79th R.S.): In recognition that advances in digital and communications equipment and technologies, including new metering and meter information technologies, have the potential to increase the reliability of the regional electrical network, encourage dynamic pricing and demand response, make better use of generation assets and transmission and generation assets, and provide more choices for consumers, the legislature encourages the adoption of these technologies by electric utilities in this state. HB 3693 (80th R.S.): It is the intent of the Legislature that utilities deploy advanced meters as rapidly as possible. Advanced Meters
35 Real-time pricing will allow consumers to monitor and adjust their use. Consumers can participate in demand response programs to reduce peak demand. Advanced meters can automate functions for utilities, such as meter reading and thermostat cycling programs. Recent pilot program in the Pacific NW garnered average 10% savings for customers. CenterPoint and Oncor Electric have filed its advanced meter deployment plans. Advanced Meters Increase Options for Market Participants
36 Benefits & Savings of Advanced Meters Benefit/Savings Include:CustomerMarketUtility More timely move-in/move-out, switching among REPs XX Reduced usage during peak periods and scarcity conditions XXX Utility Operational Savings XX Environmental Savings XX Demand Response & Reliability XXX Ability to predetermine electric bill for the month X Reduced costs from shifting load to off- peak XXX