Presentation on theme: "WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IS NEARER THAN YOU MAY THINK"— Presentation transcript:
1 WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IS NEARER THAN YOU MAY THINK Bruce E. DaleDept. of Chemical Engineering & Materials ScienceMichigan State UniversityPresented at:2007 NACAA ConferenceGrand Rapids, MichiganJuly 16, 2007
2 1978 – 2007 CRUDE OIL PRICES IT PAYS TO BE PATIENT President Bush promotescellulosic ethanolMy career begins
3 Linked Sustainability Challenges of the Coming Decades Diversify transportation fuels & end strategic role of petroleum in the worldProvide food for growing & wealthier population (which will consume more meat)Control greenhouse gases & limit other human emissions (for example, nitrogen & phosphorus discharge to ground & surface waters)Provide economic opportunities for rural peopleThese challenges & opportunities intersect at biofuels, particularly cellulosic biofuelsAbundant opportunities for creative design & system level thinking
4 Some Basic Energy Facts We do not need “energy”…we need services that energy providesThe services we need from energy are (current sources or carriers of these energy services)Heat (natural gas, coal)Light (coal, natural gas, hydro & nuclear)Mobility (petroleum—97%, rest is ethanol)Energy has fundamentally different qualities: carriers are not all interchangeable “All BTU are not created equal”Industrial society literally stops without liquid fuelsLiquid fuels: not “energy” are required for mobility for the next few decades at least!
5 The Problem: Our Society STOPS Without Liquid Fuels!
6 All Energy Carriers do Not Have Equal Strategic Importance Either Coal– U.S. & China have huge domestic reservesNatural gas—imports significant, mostly from Canada and MexicoPetroleum– more than 60% imported (U.S.) and rising“We (U.S.) are addicted to oil” President BushOil revenues sustain oppressive & aggressive regimesOil used as a political weaponOil revenues finance international terrorismPetroleum dependence underminesclimate security (a chief source of greenhouse gases)economic security (no fuels = no movement of goods = no trade = no prosperity)international security & world stability
7 Options for Dealing with Petroleum Issue Decrease demandMore petroleum efficient vehiclesBetter mileage (start measuring vehicle efficiency by “petroleum per mile” or “miles per gallon gasoline”Electrical/hybrid vehiclesFewer miles traveled (better planning)Increase supplyAthabasca oil sands (Canada)Oil shale (U.S.)Super heavy oil (Venezuela)Coal to liquid fuels (U.S., South Africa, China)BiofuelsBiodieselEthanol (from sugar, from corn, from cellulosics)
8 Why Biofuels?Biofuels, including cellulosic ethanol, are one of a small handful of petroleum alternatives that can provide:(inter) national security advantageslarge greenhouse gas reductionseconomic advantages (lower cost fuels than petroleum fuels)This presentation emphasizes cellulosic ethanolFrom agricultural and forestry residuesFrom “energy crops”
9 Ethanol Production Flowchart Corn ProcessEthanolSugarFerment- ationDistillationDryingStarchConversion(Cook orEnzymaticHydrolysis)Co-ProductRecoveryAnimal FeedChemicalsCorn Kernels
12 Thermochemical Conversion Ethanol Production FlowchartCellulose ProcessCorn ProcessSugar Cane ProcessEthanolSugar CaneSugarFerment- ationDistillationDryingStarchConversion(Cook orEnzymaticHydrolysis)Co-ProductRecoveryAnimal FeedChemicalsCorn KernelsCelluloseConversionHydrolysisCelluloseCellulosePretreatmentCorn StoverSwitchgrassMSWForest ResiduesAg ResiduesWood ChipsThermochemical ConversionHeat and PowerFuels and Chemicals
13 Major Cost Elements: Petroleum Fuels & Biofuels For all commodity products (fuels, bulk chemicals, semiconductor chips, potato chips, etc.) two things determine the final selling price:Cost of raw material (the feedstock)Cost of processing the feedstock to the desired product(s)For gasoline, diesel, etc. the cost to make them depends on petroleum cost (70%) and processing cost (30%)
14 Our margin for processing: here to here and beyond Adapted from Lynd & WymanForages & hay crops-typical pricesOur margin for processing: here to hereand beyondPlant material is much, much cheaper than oil on both energy & mass basis
15 Impact of Processing Improvements: Oil’s Past & Future Historically, petrochemical processing costs exceeded feedstock costsPetroleum processing efficiencies have increased and costs have decreased dramatically but reaching point of diminishing returnsPetroleum raw materials have long-term issuesCosts will continue to increase as supplies tightenHigh price variabilityImpacts national securityClimate security concernsNot renewableNot a pretty picture for our petroleum dependent societyRelative CostProcessingOilFrom J. Stoppert, 2005
16 Brazil Has Been Reducing Sugar Ethanol Costs for 30 Years Cellulosic Ethanol Costs Have Declined and Will Decrease More!Ethanol-BrazilGasoline-Rotterdam
17 Impact of Processing Improvements: The Future of Cellulosic Biomass Conversion Processing is dominant cost of cellulosic biofuels todayCellulosic biomass costs should be stable or decreaseProcessing costs dominated by pretreatment, enzymes & fermentationBiomass processing costs must (& will) decreaseTwo ways to do this:“Learning by doing” in large scale plantsApplied (cost focused) researchMuch more attractive futureDomestically produced fuelsEnvironmental improvementsRural/regional economic developmentRelative CostProcessing?BiomassBiomassAdapted from J. Stoppert, 2005
20 Central Role and Pervasive Impact of Pretreatment for Biological Processing EnzymeproductionBiomassproductionHarvesting,storage,size reductionPretreatmentEnzymatichydrolysisSugarfermentationHydrolyzateconditioningHydrolyzatefermentationEthanolrecoveryResidueutilizationWastetreatmentBiomass Refining CAFI
21 Cellulosic Biomass Production Cellulosic Biomass to EthanolCellulosic Biomass ProductionBiomass Conversion Research Lab at Michigan State Works Here Using AFEX ProcessDOE 2005
22 How does AFEX work? Reactor Explosion Ammonia Recovery Expansion BiomassTreatedRecycleGaseousExpansionHeatBiomass heated (~100 C) with concentrated ammoniaRapid pressure release ends treatment99% of ammonia is recovered & reused, remainder serves as N source downstream for fermentationAFEX covered by multiple U. S. and international patentsSugars not degraded, fermentation inhibitors NOT produced
24 Pretreatment Economic Analysis by NREL $/gal EtOHProof Year: 4th Year of OperationAFEX:$1.41/galMESPCashCostPlantLevel
25 Results of AFEX Economic Analysis* Reduce ammonia loadingsReduce required ammonia recycle concentrations (manage system water)Reduce capital cost of AFEX*Analysis performed by Dr. Tim Eggeman of NREL
26 Improvements in AFEX Give Improved Ethanol MESP Original estimate2,205 dry ton/day scaleReduced ammonia loading & concentrationPlus new ammonia recoveryapproach
27 Final Result will be Low Cost Ethanol from Cellulose 2,205 dry ton/day scale
28 Ethanol from Cellulosics: Look for Fast Growth! courtesy Dr. Steve Long UICU
29 What Happens Because of Inexpensive Ethanol? Petroleum dominance declinesReduce petroleum’s influence on prosperity & politicsLess chance for international conflictGreater economic growth opportunities for poor nationsEnvironmental improvements possibleReduced greenhouse gasesReduced nitrogen & phosphorus-related pollutionImproved soil fertilityRural economic development possibleLocal cellulosic biomass processingGreater wealth accumulation in rural areasLess migration to cities to find economic opportunityLess expensive food (animal feed) possibleImproved animal feeds: protein & caloriesLess expensive, more abundant human food
30 Will People Go Hungry Because of Biofuels? Three major U.S. crops alone (corn, soy, wheat) produce 1300 trillion kcal & 51 trillion grams protein/yrCould meet U.S. human demand for protein & calories with 25 million acres of corn (~5% of our cropland)Most U. S. agricultural production (inc. exports) is fed to animals-- i.e., we are meeting their protein/calorie needs from our land resources. Their needs are:1040 trillion kcal/yr ( 5 times human demand)56.6 trillion gm protein/yr (10 times human demand)Thus we can address perceived “food vs. fuel” conflict by providing animal feeds more efficiently, on less landDairy & beef cattle consume more than 70% of all calories and protein fed to livestockAs nations grow richer, they want more protein, especially more meat….
31 U.S. Livestock Consumption of Calories & Protein HERD SIZETOTAL PROTEINTOTAL ENERGYANIMAL CLASS(THOUSANDS)(MILLION KG/YR)(TRILLION CAL/YR)Dairy15,35010,400184.8Beef72,64525,100525.3Hogs60,2346,900136.2Sheep10,00646110.6Egg production446,9002,4704.3Broilers produced8,542,0009,540150.3Turkeys produced269,5001,76028.6Total consumed by U.S. livestock56,6301,040.00Human requirements5,114205
32 Coproducing Animal Feeds and Biofuels Must supply animals (fish, poultry, swine, cattle) with:Calories (food energy), andProteinCan grow grasses with high protein content & recover the protein with well-known (since 1945) technologyGrasses/crop residues/woody materials also have lots of calories as sugars “locked up” in plant cell walls.Pretreatment processes required to “unlock” these sugars to make cellulosic ethanol could also unlock these sugars for ruminant animal feedingCellulose-based biorefineries could also be in the animal feed business: this is a really important “food vs. fuel” opportunity
33 = Ruminant Animals & Biorefineries: Improve Cellulose Conversion for Biorefinery = Improve Cellulose Digestibility for CowsMobile Cellulose Biorefinery (a.k.a. Cow)Stationary Cellulose BiorefineryLots of Hay=SSCF Bioreactor:Ruminant Bioreactor:Biomass Input ~ 26 Lb/Day*Biomass Input ~ 5,000 Dry Ton/Day = 10 M Dry Lb/DayCapacity ~ 40 Gal FermentorCapacity ~ 45 M Gal FermentorCow is 3x more efficient than industrial bioreactor*Rasby, Rick. “Estimating Daily Forage Intake of Cows”. University of Nebraska-Lincoln Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 10/02/06.
34 What Might the Future Look Like? Land available (million acres)Cropland (430): corn, wheat, soy, sorghum, alfalfa, hay, CRPPermanent pasture (570)- half suitable for mechanical harvestMost of these acres suitable for perennial grassesDoes NOT include forestsAssume we can develop a pretreated perennial grass yielding 10 tons/acre/yr with 10% protein, 75% cellulose + hemicellulose (90% digestible), 15% lignin and ashSupply ruminants 710 trillion cal/yr & 36 trillion grams protein/yr using ~40 million acres of productive grassesLeaves available >600 million acres for other feeds, human foods and biofuel productionI simply do not agree that land for food is a limiting resource for biofuel production—animal feed is the issue
35 Thinking Ahead: Farmers & Biofuels “More than a century of bitter experience has taught farmers that when they simply sell a raw crop, they fall ever further behind.”David Morris “The American Prospect” April 2006
36 Capturing Local Benefits from Biofuels Some issues for farmers/local interestsIf farmers merely supply biomass, they will not benefit much from the biofuels revolutionInvestment required for cellulosic ethanol biorefinery is huge ~ $250 million and up—difficult for farmers to participateSome issues for biofuel firms/larger societySupply chain issues are enormous—need 5,000 ton/day from ~1,000 farmers: chemicals/fuels industries have zero experience with such large agricultural systemsCellulosic biomass is bulky, difficult to transportNeed to resolve “food vs. fuel” problem: actually “animal feed and fuel opportunity”Is there a common solution?Regional Biomass Processing Center– concept worthy of studyPretreat biomass for biorefinery & ruminant (cattle) feedingMuch lower capital requirements—accessible to rural interestsDevelop additional products over time—animal feed protein, enzymes, nutraceuticals, biobased composites, etc
44 Ethanol: Some Myths and Realities Myth: Ethanol has a negative “net energy”Reality: Gasoline’s “net energy” is worse than ethanol’s and anyway this metric is irrelevantMyth: Ethanol will drive up food pricesReality: Complicated: no easy sound bites for fuels derived from oilseeds or grains. Cellulosic ethanol will reduce food pricesMyth: Ethanol is bad for the environmentReality: Compared with what? Corn ethanol is superior to gasoline now for most metrics. Cellulosic ethanol will be even betterMyth: Ethanol will always cost more than gasolineReality: Ethanol from corn costs ~$1.20/gal; ethanol from cellulosics, when mature, will cost $0.60/gal
45 1978 – 2007 CRUDE OIL PRICES IT PAYS TO BE PATIENT President Bush promotescellulosic ethanolMy career begins
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