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Project Goal Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in: – Access to Labor Pool – Access to Intermediate Product Pool.

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Presentation on theme: "Project Goal Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in: – Access to Labor Pool – Access to Intermediate Product Pool."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Project Goal Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in: – Access to Labor Pool – Access to Intermediate Product Pool – Transportation Costs & Delivered Prices Financing and Return on Investment Effect of Federal, State, & Local Spending Bonding Evaluate Alternative Funding Scenarios: – Gas tax versus Sales Tax – Multiple Funding Sources – Sensitivity Analysis Framework and Analysis Approach

3 Washington DOT Project Method Calibrate REMI Fiscal Module to 2004 Fiscal Year State Budget – Overview of the Washington Tax System: Part 1, 2004 Collect Travel Data: VMT, VHT, & Trips – By mode: Auto & Truck Bus and Passenger Train also available – By time of day – Provided by Emme/2 simulations Modeling construction phase – Engineering – Construction – Long-term Maintenance Model funding cocktail – Local Gas Tax – Nickel Gas Tax: State Wide Gas Tax – 2005 Partnership Tax: $0.095 State wide Gas Tax 3

4 Investment Alternatives: Interstate or State Road An interstate capacity improvement project that involved roadway widening, interchange, park and ride lots, and transit improvements A highway extension project that would connect two major state highways, filling the missing link 4

5 5 Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from 1999 to 2030 - Interstate

6 6 Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from 1999 to 2030 – State Road

7 Interstate 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $168 Million 2007 to 2015 construction begins. – Total cost: $3.0 Billion Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013 Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for Interstate equals $485 Million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period Local Gas Tax increase generates $1.741 Billion (2003- 2015) 2005 Partnership Funding Package: By 2030 the tax will generate $972 Million State Road 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $36 Million 2007 to 2015 construction begins. – Total cost: $960 Million Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013 Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for State Road equals $35 million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period Local Gas Tax increase generates $913 Million (2003-2015) 7 Timelines

8 Timeline for I-405 and SR-509 Planning and Engineering: 2003 - 2006 Construction: 2007 - 2015 Nickel Tax: 2004 - 2030 2005 Transportation Partnership Funding Package: 2005 – 2030 Tax Phase-In from $0.03 to $0.095 from 2005 t0 2009 Transportation Improvement Benefits Accrue: 2015 - 2040 Local Gas Tax: 2003 - 2015 Spending and Agglomeration Taxes and Financing

9 9 Maintenance Schedules FacilityPeriodCost per UnitUnits Total Cost (thous) PCC Rehab30$20,000 Per Lane Mi43.3$866.00 ACP Rehab15$7,400 Per Lane Mi30.8$227.92 Maintenanceannual$11,500 Per Lane Mi74.1$852.15 Bridge10$0.34 Per SqFt1,797,374$611.11 Spec Brn/a$0.78 Per SqFt0$0.00 Tunnelsn/a$132.50 Per Lane Ft0$0.00 Short Lidsannual$0.17 Per SqFt0$0.00 FacilityPeriodCost per UnitUnits Total Cost (thous) PCC Rehab30$20,000 Per Ln Mi40.2$804.00 ACP Rehab15$7,400 Per Ln Mi7.7$56.98 Maintenanceannual$11,500 Per Ln Mi47.9$550.85 Bridge10$0.34 Per SF628,269$213.61 Spec Brn/a$0.78 Per SF0$0.00 Tunnelsn/a$132.50 Per LF0$0.00 Short Lidsannual$0.17 Per SF274,400$46.65 Interstate State Road

10 InterstateState Road 10 Funding Shares

11 Jobs in Thousands 11 Investment Period Transportation Benefits Accrue

12 Employment Distribution- Services 12

13 GRP in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region Major Spending and taxes begin

14 Sales in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region Major Spending and taxes begin

15 Population in Thousands Construction Phase Phase In Engineering & Benefits

16 Labor Force in Thousands Construction Phase Phase In Engineering & Benefits

17 17 Overall Results – Both Scenarios InterstateState Road Employment4,2192,617 GSP0.8850.625 Total Sales1.491.05 InterstateState Road Total GSP31.822.5 Total Disposable Income0.9850.309 Total Sales53.737.8 Totals from 2005 to 2040 - AggregateAverage Annual Growth 2005 to 2040 * All in Billions of 2004$ Economic Benefit Cost Ratio

18 Economic Benefit/Cost Conclusion Captures direct, induced, and intermediate benefits and costs Dynamic year by year estimates until 2040, impact analysis and forecast available to 2050 GSP, which represents the economic growth and inherently includes the impacts of new business, income, and consumption reported in dollar terms. Costs, which include the total direct project financing, operation, and maintenance expenditures. Emissions and safety treated as regional disamenities, because the increase in VMT drives the EPAs Mobile6 and Part5 estimates and FHWAs accident rates. As the economic benefits accrue over the next few years, the overall benefit cost ratio by 2030 is 6.31 for State Road versus 2.73 for Interstate. State Road maintains a gap of approximately 2.3 times that of Interstate for most of the future years. 18


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