Presentation on theme: "The Emerging Era of Electric Vehicles: Demands, Generation, the Economy and Health Peter Gunther, Senior Research Fellow Connecticut Center for Economic."— Presentation transcript:
The Emerging Era of Electric Vehicles: Demands, Generation, the Economy and Health Peter Gunther, Senior Research Fellow Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis REMI, Amherst,MA, April 27 2010
National Impacts of All Light Vehicles Going Electric Vehicle manufacturers launching mass-assembled plug-in vehicles – GM Volt in Nov. 2010, Ford Transit light truck and Nissan in 2011, and Fords Focus & Telsa in 2012. U.S. light vehicles consume: – 16.8% of U.S. energy – 24.2% of U.S. fossil fuels. Pace of adoption will quicken relative to previous paper, pressuring electric generating and distribution systems.
National Environmental Perspective 69.3% of U.S. electricity is generated by fossil fuels. Capacity strained Mix Undermines the environmental advantages of substituting electricity for gasoline. Green Alternatives?
Plug-ins: Recent Improvements Volt 220 recharge time reduced to 3.5 hours. Use of lithium-ion batteries by all suppliers. Volt 4 seats, Nissans version has a 5 seats. En board GE timers that allow utilities to flatten loads. Ford Plug-ins get 100 miles per charge. Transit first plug-in truck. All CT residences metered peak and off-peak. Greater certainty – GM govt. debt repaid etc.
Matching Plug-in Demands with Green Electricity Supplies Householders assumed to directly or indirectly pay the marginal costs of clean electricity, even though off-peak costs and rates are lower. Bio materials for electricity generation assumed to be wood chips or industrial wastes. Solar capital costs now 20% lower than two years ago but annual operations double to $111/MW of capacity. Transmission losses and charges increase from 10% to 15% for solar and 20% to 25% for biofuel generation.
CT Modeling Differentiations Slow Adoption At annual rates plug-ins gain 3% of CT new light vehicle sales in 2010 growing annually 1.25% of the previous years rate until the market is saturated After 2010 exceeds previous growth set at 2% with 10% annual increases Rapid Adoption Same as slow growth except annual growth is 1.35%. After 2010, exceeds previous growth set at 2% in 2009 with 15% annual increases Plug-ins attrition rates at 1.75% over the first 20 years and then in a straight line to zero over the next 20 years
Shocks to REMI Electricity demand growth for plug-ins. Gasoline demand shrinks due to plug-ins. Net household savings in fuel spent on household expenditures. Capital and operating costs including operating materials for incremental solar and biomass electricity generating systems. Assumes all CT incremental demand for electricity is supplied in-state and metal fabrication of solar panels occurs in state.
Modeled Exterior to REMI Reduced emissions of CO2eq as GHGs
Initial CT REMI Scenarios 1.All fossil burning light vehicles replaced by plug- ins wholly fueled by solar generation (DOE ranks CT as the 10 th most suitable state for solar). 2.All fossil burning light vehicles replace by plug- ins wholly fueled by bio-generation using wood chips and sawdust. 3.A combination of the two: – Solar more scalable and needed at peak in early years and bio-generation more effective in longer-term. With Slow and Rapid scenarios for each, 6 cases in all
REMI Impacts Covered Here CTRGDP Jobs Metal Fabrication Jobs Jobs in Natural Resources Except Mining Personal Income Personal Taxes Population Labor Force Labor Force Productivity Others
CT Population Impacts: 2010-2040 Slow AdoptionRapid Adoption
CT Labor Force Impacts: 2010-2040 Slow AdoptionRapid Adoption
Additional Modeling Considerations Elasticities and off-peak pricing of electricity facilitate off-peak fueling of plug-ins where current surplus nuclear generating capacity that could reduce needs to build incremental capacity. Greater use of biofuels to replace diesel in all vehicles, especially in heavier trucks. Evidence of the energy-food pricing nexus. Health benefits of reduced emissions (GHGs and PMs).
Other Peak Pricing Consumer Reactions At 11.34 cents/kWh for off-peak and peak at 22.56 cents/kWh compared to the current flat rate of 20.57/kWh, demand would shift to off- peak so as to eliminate the need for 1-2.7 bio- generating plants of the 75 required out to 2050, reducing impacts by 3-4 percent.
Energy/Food Pricing Nexus: Recent U.S. Experience 2005M1-2010M2 Annual Rates of Growth of Biofuel Production Time 2009 Bioethanol 259 M Bar. Biodiesel 12.8 M Bar. Combined 2005-200625.1175.928.5 2006-200733.595.636.5 2007-200842.758.443.8 2008-200915.6-30.412.0
Energy/Food Pricing Nexus: Recent U.S. Experience 2005M1-2010M2
Energy/Food Pricing Nexus: Catch 22 The problem with biodiesel is that it clouds and gels at different temperatures depending on the feedstock used. Biodiesel using Bernard Taos methods have remained gel free at -60 F, but are reliant on using virgin soybeans as the feedstock. Right back into the Energy/Food Nexus. If energy feedstock is also a human food, pricing impacts must be considered.
CT CO2eq Reductions (1,000s tonnes) Full conversion of CTs light vehicle fleet to clean electricity would save nearly 16 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2050 Solar would eliminate virtually all the GHGs Fragmentary evidence from wood chip generators is about 40% of GHG is saved relative to fossil fuel generation by other than natural gas.
CT Health Impacts CT health impacts are difficult to assess: – Externalities are spread on airborne plumes; – Adverse impacts on the ozone layer are global; – Small particulate matter (PM) appears to be about 1000 times more harmful than GHGs If solar supplied at peak reduces coal fired generation, then PM would be reduced. If biodiesel were similarly substituted for fossil-based diesel and adjacent states attained the GHG savings with the average accompaniment of PM, in 2050 roughly 845 premature deaths would be avoided in CT.
Non-Fatal Health Impacts Avoidance of that level of premature deaths would normally be accompanied by: – 2,990 hospital stays – 39,440 emergency day visits; – 2,026,230 asthma attacks; and, – 10,479,200 person-days restricted by illness.
Potential Direct Health Impacts Since gasoline fuels yield less PM than diesel and relatively few light vehicles burn diesel, as a speculative experiment the following shocks have been added to the Slow Solar Adoption scenario: – population increases by avoiding dying at 85 persons per year, or 59 additional employees annually 1 of whom dies in each successive year; – 299 hospital admissions – 3,944 emergency day visits avoided annually; – 202,823 asthma attacks avoided annually; and – 1,047,920 person-days restricted by illness avoided; – Sickness days avoided equate to 4,213 additional annual jobs.
Slow Adoption of Solar Employment Impacts with and without Accounting for Environmental Health Benefits
Slow Adoption of Solar CTRGDP Impacts with and without Accounting for Environmental Health Benefits ( Millions Fixed 2000 $)
Slow Adoption of Solar Personal Income Impacts with and without Accounting for Environmental Health Benefits ( Millions Nominal $)
Slow Adoption of Solar Labor Productivity Impacts with and without Accounting for Environmental Health Benefits ( Millions Fixed $)
Slow Adoption of Solar Jobs in Health and Social Work Impacts with and without Accounting for Environmental Health Benefits
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