# What does REMI say? sm Predicting State and Local Government Demand in Local Regions Based on Changes in Economic and Demographic Conditions Sherri Lawrence.

## Presentation on theme: "What does REMI say? sm Predicting State and Local Government Demand in Local Regions Based on Changes in Economic and Demographic Conditions Sherri Lawrence."— Presentation transcript:

what does REMI say? sm Predicting State and Local Government Demand in Local Regions Based on Changes in Economic and Demographic Conditions Sherri Lawrence Frederick Treyz, Ph.D. George Treyz, Ph.D. Nicolas Mata

what does REMI say? sm Responds to Gross State Products as well as Population Need: Based on Population Resource: Based on Revenue (limited to GDP) State and Local Government Demand

what does REMI say? sm State and Local Government Demand Equations and Estimates The new state government demand equation has the following form: Where, k = state t = time u = U.S. β = GDP elasticity of state government expenditures SG = State government expenditures in chained 2000\$ RSG = local calibration factor for state government expenditures GDP = gross domestic product in chained 2000\$ N = population

what does REMI say? sm The new local government demand equation has the following form: Where, k = state t = time u = U.S. γ = GDP elasticity of local government expenditures LG = Local government expenditures in chained 2000\$ R LG = local calibration factor for local government expenditures GDP = gross domestic product in chained 2000\$ N = population

what does REMI say? sm Regression Equation Results equationbeta standard error of betatNR-square SG0.9040.08910.2105100.959 gamma standard error of gammatNR-square LG0.7980.07810.2245100.980

what does REMI say? sm

Scaling Calibration Factors from State to County Level

what does REMI say? sm State Government Equation Local Government Equation

what does REMI say? sm Previous Demand Equations: State Where, l = local region t = time u = U.S. SG = State government demand in chained 2000\$ N = population λ SG = An estimate of the state government average demand per capita in the last history year

what does REMI say? sm Previous Demand Equations: Local Where, LG = Local government demand in chained 2000\$ λ LG = An estimate of the local government average demand per capita in the last history year Table 6 shows the percent change in the control forecast of a region in Georgia based on a model with the new equations for state and local government demand compared to a model with the old equations. For this region in Georgia, the GDP per capita has a growth rate of only about 60% of that in the nation by 2050, which in the new equation leads to the decline seen in the forecast of the state and local government employment when compared to the old equation.

what does REMI say? sm Change in Baseline Forecast as a Result of New Equations

what does REMI say? sm Results of 1,000 Jobs Added to Professional and Technical Services Based on New Equations

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