2. League of Women Voters Oregon May 16, 2014 OREGON VALUES and Tom Bowerman, PolicyInterative

3. Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. – Abraham Lincoln

6. Three surveys; spaced 2 weeks apart; 198 questions S1: 3,971 respondents (1.6% MOE @ 95% confidence) S2: 1,958 respondents (2.2% MOE @ 95% confidence) S3: 1,865 respondents (2.3% MOE @ 95% confidence) 198 total questions – 1200 cross survey respondents Random sample, Telephone land+cell & Internet Employ quality controls for survey error & bias 5 regions: Eastern, Southern, Central, W.Valley, Metro

7. Survey Topic Modules Used in 2013 Oregon Project: Hopes and fears, likes and dislikes, what’s important – volunteered Policy priorities Worldviews & Culture Theory Education Healthcare Social Services Land use Jobs & Economy Environment Energy Philanthropy Demographics

8. This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations.

10. EDUCATION

11. PUBLIC SERVICE PRIORITIES w/$$ Oregonians rank K-12 education #1 among 20 public services 81% total “important” to support w/ taxes (58% “very important”) #2: 79% Public Safety like fire & police #3: 72% Clean air and clean water #20: 43% Economic development through tax breaks and public subsidies S1 – Q 6-27

12. Why to you think Oregon might become a worse place to live? (open response) Over population (18%) Increased taxation (15%) Poor government leadership (15%) Lack of jobs, unemployment (11%) S2 - Q3

13. 10 Years: Students will better learn the lessons of citizenship, work, and family S3.Q37 21% 83%

14. S3.Q36 10 Years: Schools will substantially improve student knowledge of money management and household finance 27% 88%

15. 10 Years: Parents will take greater responsibility and be more involved in their children’s learning S3.Q38 20% 90%

16. Health & Health Care

17. How desirable or undesirable? Wellness and healthy living replaces the treatment of illnesses as the primary goal and focus of the healthcare industry S2-21 77% 14%

18. (How desirable or undesirable?) Doctors’ fees are regulated based on providing preventative care and good health rather than treating poor health S2-22 64% 23%

19. (How desirable or undesirable?) People are held accountable for high risk behaviors like smoking, drugs, and lack of exercise through higher insurance premiums S2-23 72% 22%

20. Oregon’s Tax System

21. Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good S2-10 86% 10%

22. There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5)

23. Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time? S2-5

24. Add picture Oregonians care about their Environment

25. Response CategoryTotalMetroW. ValleyCentralEasternSouthern Beauty/scenery21% 22%17%15%24% Weather/climate19%18%22%15%12%19% Friendly residents/people13%15%11%12%10%11% Outdoors/outdoor activities11% 8%19%11% Forest/trees11% 12%5%4%11% Proximity to coast/ocean10%12%13%4%2%6% Nature—general10%13%8%5%4%10% Great place to live/ neighborliness/friendly town 10%11%10%11%13%7% Proximity to mountains9%11% 6%7%5% Environment—general6% 7%6%3%7% Environmentally friendly/ promotes recycling 6%7% 4%2%3% All other responses 5% or less 6% or less 7% or less 11% or less 10% or less None/Nothing2% 1% 2% Don’t know2% 1%2%5%3% S1-Q2 Open What do you personally value about living in Oregon? (84% refer to environmental traits from ~ 3300 comments) 25

26. 26 S1-Q28 n=2971 Statement A: Economic Growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of slowing economic growth Which statement comes closest to your view? Color Tone Key: Light: Lean towards Dark: Feel strongly

27. Statement A: Economic growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of slowing economic growth Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27 27

28. S1-Q28 n=2971 Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars Statement B: We should invest more in public transit Which statement comes closest to your view? Tone Key: Light: Lean towards Dark: Feel strongly 28

29. 29 Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars Statement B: We should invest more in public transit Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27

30. Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q32

31. 31 Statement A: Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply Statement B: If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate) S1-Q27

32. Revisiting Common Assumptions about Climate Change: Is it human caused? Is it a hoax? Will it be bad? Will public policy fix it? 32

33. HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT. 75%15% 16%78% 71% 33 5:1 4:1 1 : <2 1:5

34. Public Support & Confidence in Public Policy 34

35. (How desirable or undesirable?) There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions S3-Q46 57% 22%

36. (How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications) A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies S3-Q48 50% 26%

37. Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change S2-17 59% 37% 19% 40% 37

38. Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the critical issues we face as a state Combined Very/Somewhat Responses S3-Q21

39. Public Confidence: Private Industry, Science & Technology

40. (How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life S3-47 61% 19%

41. The role of individual behaviors in absence of policy action: “When the people lead, the leaders will follow.” Gandhi

42. HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOR EACH STATEMENT. 81% 48% 20% 74% 20% 14%6 : 1 1 : 4 1 : 2.5

43. Thinking at the Individual Level Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology IPAT Consumption Behaviors43

44. Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries 26

45. Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster) Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on file Import – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries 19.7 t with imports 5.2 t w.o exports 45

46. Public Opinion about Consumption Behaviors46

47. 47

48. Political Party Ideology Comparison Compare - Global Warming : Consume less PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector) 48

49. Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & Environmentalist Compare Global Warming / Consume less PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector) 49

50. With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative? - Dana O’Rourke, book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle 50

51. 51 Climate Change: What’s going on in our heads?

52. ATTITUDE A BEHAVIOR B X 52

53. VALUE ACTION X BEHAVIORAL MOTIVATIONS (e.g. constraints to changing behavior) Habits Norms (conformity) Self identity Ideology (social) Desires Physical constraints 53

54. VALUE DISSONANCE Anxiety Grief Avoidance Denial ACTION X 54

55. 55 “It is naive to ask consumers to voluntarily downscale, and give up their desires without offering them alternative dreams.” Tim Jackson, Sustainable Development Commission, U.K. 55

56. One Measure of “hopes and dreams”: Life Satisfaction All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays, with 1 being not satisfied at all and 10 being completely satisfied? (annual Gallup World Survey and many others, normally on 1-10 scale) 24

57. Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Nation (normalized) & Oregon Compared Income: Per Capita/Yr. World Bank 2013 estimate (Atlas Method) Emissions: Tons CO2/capita EPA 2013 estimate Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation) PI 2008 25 57

58. Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Four Nations & Oregon Compared Income: Per Capita World Bank 2013estimate (Atlas Method), Oregon: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Emissions: Tons CO2/capita 2012 World Bank & EPA for Oregon Life Satisfaction:: Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation); Oregon PI Dec 09 58

59. USA NOW 29 COSTA RICA NOW True Sustainability (4 Mt/C) does not mean hair shirts and living in caves:

60. 60 Hitting the reset button on NORMATIVE BEHAVIOR Individual Actions Do Count 60

61. 61 10,920 8,548

62. Census Report (May 8, 2014): Bicycle commuting up 61% since 2000 In U.S., that’s only.6% of commuters In Portland, 6.1% commute by bicycle Other behavior shifts noted: Telecommuting 4 day work-weeks Home occupations Live – Work Proximity 62

63. VALUES New Norms ACTIONS X 63 Yield Critical Mass reinforces Policy Support reinforces Widespread adoption

64. CHANGING BEHAVIOR: TRANSFORMATIONAL THINKING  Holistic & Systemic: as a Way of Life  Rethinking “Wealth”  Practice World Citizenship UNDERSTAND MY OWN CONTRIBUTION  “Oregon Carbon Calculator” (20 minute exercise) DOWNSHIFTING: Incremental but Steady PROMOTE POLICY REINFORCEMENTS CELEBRATE REAL LEADERSHIP 29 64

65. Further Information: PolicyInteractive: –policyinteractive.orgpolicyinteractive.org Oregon Values Project: –oregonvaluesproject.orgoregonvaluesproject.org 65

66. 66

67. Appendices: 1.Message Frame Testing 67

68. Eugene Message Frame Study Results shown in order: Aggregated EWEB + City Employee (in bold font); EWEB Residential Customer; City Employee. 5 Votes summarized Future Generations: We all have a responsibility to pass this place on to the next generation in at least as good a condition as we inherited it ourselves. Both our leaders and we our selves must do more to protect this planet for future generations. 872 527 345 Live by Example: Each and every one of us is a teacher by how we act. We need to set a good example for each other and our children by considerate and thoughtful behavior as it applies to care of the earth and equitable sharing of resources. 630 401 229 Oregon Pride: Oregon is a special place which has attracted people who care for the land and natural resources. We have long been a leader in green practices and we can leverage this reputation to set an example for other states. We need to continue to build on our leadership through smart environmental behavior. 412 265 147 Waste Not: Waste is a bad thing, and it is a by-product of thoughtless consumption. It is important to reduce the amount of waste we create by shifting behaviors to a more sustainable lifestyle and living more simply. 735 480 255 Do the Right Thing: I feel better about myself when I know I ’ m doing the right thing. Recycling, being careful to reuse things, and making purchases with thoughtfulness about consequences gives a sense of self-satisfaction. 616 352 264

69. Synthesized Message Frame Competition PI Feb 2012 N=692 - 5 votes per person, distribute any way, not required to use all votes 69