1. History of the Future 10: Apollo & Beyond

2. Space Flight in Literature Long history Long history Early authors use metaphorically Early authors use metaphorically We already saw Verne, Wells in 19 th Century We already saw Verne, Wells in 19 th Century Also in Stapledon & Things to Come Also in Stapledon & Things to Come Rocket established by 1930s Rocket established by 1930s Space flight becomes central with Genre SF Space flight becomes central with Genre SF Hugo Gernsback, 1930 Hugo Gernsback, 1930 Seizes imagination of readers Seizes imagination of readers

3. The “Space Opera” Stories of interstellar or intergalactic adventure Stories of interstellar or intergalactic adventure Generally dealing with exciting wars Generally dealing with exciting wars Popular from 1930s Popular from 1930s E.E. “Doc” Smith – the Skylak and Lensman series E.E. “Doc” Smith – the Skylak and Lensman series Fades somewhat by late 40s Fades somewhat by late 40s Authors seek more realistic/nuanced themes Authors seek more realistic/nuanced themes Used lightheartedly or for children Used lightheartedly or for children Revived with Star Wars, 1977 Revived with Star Wars, 1977

4. Realistic Space Flight V2 Rocket – Germany, WWII V2 Rocket – Germany, WWII More realistic stories appear in “Golden Age” More realistic stories appear in “Golden Age” Heinlein, Clarke good at this Heinlein, Clarke good at this Clarke “invents” geosynchronous comms satellite Clarke “invents” geosynchronous comms satellite Heinlein, “The Man Who Sold the Moon” Heinlein, “The Man Who Sold the Moon” Moon landing by private enterprise Moon landing by private enterprise Space as new frontier Space as new frontier Readers learn about Readers learn about Moon bases & Space Stations Moon bases & Space Stations Space Suits Space Suits Orbital mechanics, etc. Orbital mechanics, etc.

5. The Reality Space race as extension of cold war Space race as extension of cold war Soviets get first satellite (1957) Soviets get first satellite (1957) First moon probe (1959) First moon probe (1959) Gagarin becomes first man in space (1961) Gagarin becomes first man in space (1961) Unmanned moon landing (1966) Unmanned moon landing (1966) First space station (1971) First space station (1971) First Venus lander (1975) First Venus lander (1975) US response founders US response founders Rockets explode Rockets explode Political infighting Political infighting

6. Apollo Program Moon drive launched by Kennedy, 1961 Moon drive launched by Kennedy, 1961 Part of his aggressive challenge to Soviets Part of his aggressive challenge to Soviets Direct to moon strategy – diverges from earlier ideas in search of quick results Direct to moon strategy – diverges from earlier ideas in search of quick results Apollo 11, July 1969 Apollo 11, July 1969 Caps series of earlier flights & tests Caps series of earlier flights & tests Soviet rocket keeps exploding Soviet rocket keeps exploding Interest drops off fast Interest drops off fast War, social unrest, urban riots are distracting War, social unrest, urban riots are distracting Final 3 missions cancelled Final 3 missions cancelled

7. Military Industrial Complex Term coined by Eisenhower in farewell speech Term coined by Eisenhower in farewell speech Cold War gives government huge economic role Cold War gives government huge economic role New high-tech defense industry grows up New high-tech defense industry grows up Close ties between generals, firms, politicians Close ties between generals, firms, politicians Cutting edge science and technology Cutting edge science and technology Space program is extension of in Space program is extension of in Technologies involved Technologies involved Procurement and project management strategies Procurement and project management strategies Companies building components Companies building components

8. Atlas Missiles First ICMB (mentioned previously) First ICMB (mentioned previously) New concept: “Systems Engineering” New concept: “Systems Engineering” Rapid construction of futuristic technologies Rapid construction of futuristic technologies New project management techniques New project management techniques Organize huge teams from different firms on “blue sky” research Organize huge teams from different firms on “blue sky” research Used as “booster stage” for early US flights Used as “booster stage” for early US flights Including John Glenn, 1962 – First US orbit Including John Glenn, 1962 – First US orbit Over long time period – descendents used today! Over long time period – descendents used today!

9. “Systems” Thinking Surged with Cold War Surged with Cold War Establishment of “think tanks” like RAND Corp Establishment of “think tanks” like RAND Corp Work includes strategy, first futurology Work includes strategy, first futurology Elements Elements “Game Theory” “Game Theory” Operations Research (use in industry) Operations Research (use in industry) Computer models for prediction, forecasting Computer models for prediction, forecasting Perceptions, hype exceed achievement Perceptions, hype exceed achievement

10. Application to Broader Issues Systems Engineering as Universal Expertise Systems Engineering as Universal Expertise McNamara – takes from Ford to DOD McNamara – takes from Ford to DOD Tries to fight war by “watching the numbers” Tries to fight war by “watching the numbers” Application to social problems, late 1960s Application to social problems, late 1960s “The techniques that are going to put man on the moon are exactly the techniques that we are going to need to clean up our cities” – Hubert Humphrey (VP), 1968 “The techniques that are going to put man on the moon are exactly the techniques that we are going to need to clean up our cities” – Hubert Humphrey (VP), 1968 Aerospace contracts, think tanks offer services Aerospace contracts, think tanks offer services Perceived crisis in urban areas Perceived crisis in urban areas Transportation, energy problems Transportation, energy problems

11. Application to Environment “World Systems Theory” “World Systems Theory” Computer model of entire ecosystem! Computer model of entire ecosystem! “Limits to Growth” report, 1972 “Limits to Growth” report, 1972 Suggests crises of population, resources imminent Suggests crises of population, resources imminent Economic collapse within 100 years Economic collapse within 100 years  One of many later charts produced in response to the 1972 report.

12. Manned Space Flight in 1970s NASA Proposes the SF future NASA Proposes the SF future Cheap, reusable “space truck” Cheap, reusable “space truck” to build space station and permanent moon base to build space station and permanent moon base to fly to Mars to fly to Mars Funding limited, political pressures Funding limited, political pressures We get space shuttle (years late, hugely over budget) We get space shuttle (years late, hugely over budget) And Sky Lab, made of Apollo leftovers And Sky Lab, made of Apollo leftovers Unmanned probes do best science Unmanned probes do best science Viking lands on Mars in 1976 Viking lands on Mars in 1976

13. Faced with this SF interest in realistic space flight diminishes SF interest in realistic space flight diminishes Real space programs too big, bureaucratic Real space programs too big, bureaucratic Political dimensions too obvious Political dimensions too obvious Little useful results, frontier feeling lacking Little useful results, frontier feeling lacking Some realistic treatments of Mars Some realistic treatments of Mars of which Man Plus is key example of which Man Plus is key example Kim Stanley Robinson “Mars” Trilogy, 1990s Kim Stanley Robinson “Mars” Trilogy, 1990s By 80s, some authors boosting SDI By 80s, some authors boosting SDI Will talk about this later Will talk about this later Manned space flight becomes Republican issue! Manned space flight becomes Republican issue!