1. Exploring the role of the family in multilevel models of school effectiveness and student achievement using Swedish registry data Rob French Longitudinal data analysis: Methods & Applications 6th ESRC Research Methods Festival 11:15 Wed 9th July 2014

2. School effectiveness Pupils in schools: (Raudenbush & Bryk, 1986); (Aitkin & Longford, 1986) (Goldstein et al., 1993)

3. Goldstein, 2011 ‘Multilevel Statistical Models’

4. Families & achievement Are families important for school effectiveness studies? Pupils in families: (Jenkins et al., 2005) (Georgiades et al., 2008) Pupils in schools & families: (Rasbash et al., 2010)

5. Rasbash et al. (2010)

7. Family structure Birth order (Belmont & Marolla 1973), within family (Rodgers et al. 2000), (Wichman et al. 2006) Family size (Hanushek 1992), (Blake 1981), (Conger et al. 2000), (Kuo & Hauser 1997), (Iacovou 2008) Family Spacing (Zajonc 1976) (van Eijsden et al. 2008) Family sibling sex composition (Bound et al. 1986), (Butcher & Case 1994), (Hauser & Kuo 1998), (Powell & Steelman 1989)

8. Research Questions 1.How much of the within school variation in achievement in school effectiveness models should be attributed to the family? 2.Which family structure characteristics are important for explaining differences in achievement between students and families?

9. Data Swedish pupil registry datasets 4 cohorts (students who finish compulsory schooling in 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009) 339,897 pupils in analysis, 1,295 schools, 5,341 neighbourhoods and 288,974 families Outcome measure = student achievement sum of score (0,10,15 or 20) across 16 subjects - standardised for analysis

10. Defining family & family structure variables We have 2 ways of identifying families: 1.Genetic relatedness 2.Mother ID & father ID We define the family as children with common mothers and fathers (+ other possible definitions…) Problems: 1.Family is constructed only for individuals in the 4 cohorts of data and ignores siblings from earlier / later cohorts 2.Family structure variables are also constructed only from the 4 cohorts of data.

11. Independent variables Family structure: 1.Birth order: categorical variable (1 st born is reference). 2.Family size: categorical variable (1 child family is reference). 3.Family Spacing: age gap between oldest and youngest recoded as categorical variable: 0 spacing (reference), 1- 24 months, 25-48 months. 4.Family sibling sex composition: mixed sex sibships vs. single sex sibships. Other variables: gender, immigration status, age within year

12. School Pupil Model A: Pupils in schools Twins: All siblings:,, Model of student achievement of pupil i nested in school j Twins approach uses dummy variable for twin children Siblings approach uses cohort dummies

13. Families Pupil Model B: Pupils in families Model of student achievement of pupil i nested in family j Twins approach uses the twin dummy variable to switch between twin families (1% of sample) and singletons

14. SchoolNeighbourhood Pupil Model C & D: Schools + families Family Model includes school AND family random effects We also include neighbourhood effects

15. Model A: Pupils in schools variance partition coefficient (VPC) Twins approach (Rasbash)Siblings approach Rasbash et al. (2010) Comparison model (single cohort, common variables & clusters) All cohorts English studentsSwedish students Secondary school 14%22%7% Pupil86%78%93% Omitting prior attainment increases the school effects / school variance partition coefficient (VPC) School effects are much lower for Sweden than England Using all 4 cohorts makes no difference to school effects for Sweden

16. Model B: Pupils in families variance partition coefficient (VPC) Twins approach (Rasbash)Siblings approach Rasbash et al. (2010) Comparison model (single cohort, common variables & clusters) All cohorts English studentsSwedish students Family60%72%70%49% Pupil40%28%30%51% Omitting prior attainment increases the family VPC Family VPC similar for Sweden and England Using all 4 cohorts (families now include siblings rather than just twins) reduces family VPC

17. Model C – Schools & families variance partition coefficient (VPC) Twins approach (Rasbash)Siblings approach Rasbash et al. (2010) Comparison model (single cohort, common variables & clusters) All cohorts English studentsSwedish students Secondary school10.3%21%6%5% Neighbourhood1.8%6%4% Family40.4%47%60%40% Pupil37.8%26%30%52% Impact of adding family 52%64%66%44% The proportion of variation identified as within school variation that should be attributed to families is 64% in England and 66% in Sweden (using the twins methodology with no prior attainment) This is reduced to 44% when we consider families of siblings rather than simply twins

18. Model D: Age & gender Variance partition coefficient (VPC) Twins approach (Rasbash)Siblings approach Rasbash et al. (2010) Comparison model (single cohort, common variables & clusters) All cohorts English studentsSwedish students Intercept-0.039***(0.007)-0.103***(0.008)-0.263***(0.009)-0.297***(0.006) Prior attainmentYNNN Twin dummy0.154**(0.007)0.106***(0.011)0.035(0.028)N Age within year-0.012***(<0.001)0.013***(<0.001)0.014***(0.001)0.012***(<0.001) Female0.184***(0.002)0.229***(0.003)0.405***(0.006)0.406***(0.003) + individual variablesY N N Y + family variablesY N N Y Estimates for ‘Age within year’ similar for England and Sweden Greater gender differences in Sweden

19. Model D: Family structure Variance partition coefficient (VPC) Siblings approach All cohorts Swedish students Cohort: 2006 (reference category) Cohort: 20070.041***(0.004) Cohort: 20080.109***(0.005) Cohort: 20090.137***(0.005) Birth order: 1st born(ref.) Birth order: 2nd born-0.204***(0.005) Birth order: 3rd born-0.357***(0.022) Family size: 1 child family(ref.) Family size: 2 child family0.070***(0.013) Family size: 3 child family0.031(0.022) Birth spacing: none(ref. ) Birth spacing: close (1-24 months)0.045**(0.014) Birth spacing: wide (2-48 months)0.095***(0.014) Mixed sibling sex composition-0.004(0.006)

20. Family structure: 2 child family 2 child family 1st born in 2006 cohort 2nd born in 2007 cohort 2nd born in 2008 cohort 2nd born in 2009 cohort Zero spacing (twins)0.179 Close spacing0.2220.060 Wide spacing0.2740.207 Predicted achievement for children from a 2 child family, where both children are girls: 1 st born children have higher predicted achievement than 2 nd born Wider spacing reduces the gap between siblings

21. Family structure: 3 child family 3 child family 1st born in 2006 cohort 2nd born in 2007 cohort 2nd born in 2008 cohort 2nd born in 2009 cohort 3rd born in 2007 cohort 3rd born in 2008 cohort 3rd born in 2009 cohort Zero spacing (triplets)0.141 Close spacing0.1840.022-0.129 Wide spacing0.2360.1690.018 Predicted achievement for children from a 3 child family, where all children are girls: 1 st born children have higher predicted achievement than 2 nd born 2 nd born children have higher predicted achievement than 3rd born Wider spacing reduces the gap between siblings

22. RQ1 - Conclusions How much of the “within school variation” in school effectiveness models is actually attributable to the family? We estimate 44% of the within school variation in our school effectiveness model is actually attributable to the family.

23. RQ2 - Conclusions Which family structure characteristics are important for explaining differences in achievement between students and families? Birth order has a large negative impact on achievement (interpreted alongside family size) Wider spacing is associated with higher achievement Sex composition has no significant association

24. Further work Additional waves of data to address the problem of family and family structure being defined by families over 4 waves Identify the genetic component of achievement

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