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NUPC 1998 Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using.

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Presentation on theme: "NUPC 1998 Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using."— Presentation transcript:

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2 NUPC 1998 Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using Computers New Personal Computer Uses July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

3 NUPC 1998 Some challenges Fifty years ago the first stored program computer ran at Manchester. Now, we should posit challenges for the next five decades that will exploit computing. Several challenges are inter- related because they depend on being able to analyze and synthesize human voice and images. Already, humans have failed the Turing test when communicating via printed text. When will computers be able to win when communicating via telephone or videophone? Given this capability and the extraordinary advances in processing and storage, we should be able to build systems that can record, store, and retrieve everything we have read (written), heard (said), and seen or been part of.

4 NUPC 1998 From Questionable...Great Research & Book Reports to Poor...Profitable Product: and then a miracle happens For New Uses of PCs Conference… also New Paradigms for Using Computers July 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. Bay Area Research Center

5 NUPC 1998 Research to Product Models The Classical, Feed-Forward Process Govt Model I. Fund product development & then buy the products Govt Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product. We invented it, now productize it, stupid PARC I We invented something, lets at least try to get our money back. PARC II Fund a company for research & development Research as a recruiting tool Hire good people, encourage interaction Hire good people, large projects, do startups Do it in/with product development Fund university research and pray…

6 NUPC 1998 Just say no to Uncle Sam if a useful product is the goal Projects that large companies e.g. Xerox find marginal or VCs wont fund e.g. Kestrel Model based on observing ARPA/DARPA SCI funding c1980s Still in use, including ATP, SBIR 30 projects c80s, NO successful products… did succeed in demolishing Cray Research… and vector processing. MPP yet to happen. Fund technology & product development, get military customers to buy the output. Funding researchers is a different motivator than funding developers… little in common

7 NUPC 1998 Heuristics for Government Funding Fund University Research Issue buy challenges to foster competition

8 NUPC 1998 The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans – Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them – Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). – Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels – A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies

9 NUPC 1998 Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year – Chip density – Microprocessor speed Exponential growth: – The past does not matter – 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change PC costs decline faster than any other platform – Volume and learning curves – PCs are the building bricks of all future systems Moores First Law

10 NUPC 1998 Platform evolution: How do they all connect?

11 NUPC 1998 Tera Giga Mega Kilo Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per yearStorage Backbone Memory Processing Telephone Service 17% / year ??

12 NUPC 1998 Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E %= Teraops 40%= Petaops 60%= Exaops

13 NUPC 1998 Alternative Computing Futures Photos courtesy of Microsoft Cinemania Forbidden Planet (1956) Metropolis (1926) 2001 (1968)

14 NUPC 1998 Going forward… SIX challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

15 NUPC 1998 Turing test: you cant tell whos on the other end when communicating with a machine using Text Voice Visual image and voice

16 NUPC 1998 Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

17 NUPC 1998 Region/Intranet Campus, including SANs Home Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Car

18 NUPC 1998 Everything will be in Cyberspace Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables new computing platforms that require new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content – Three evolutionary dimensions

19 NUPC 1998 Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks

20 NUPC 1998 Atoms vs Electrons for bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) people knowcomputers know bricks & mortaranywhere (personnel/clients) office hoursanytime database & reportsweb access for review and transactions letter & fax & web access phone , voice & video mail personal visitsvideophone / videomail signatureauthenticated images envelopesdigital envelopes / store

21 NUPC 1998 By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the net. Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

22 NUPC 1998 Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market – for networks – for access devices… especially PCs It says something about the utility – commerce – communication – entertainment Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables – phones – videophones – television – serendipity

23 NUPC 1998 Internetters growth Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year

24 NUPC 1998 Internetters growth Internetters PCs TVs & Phones World Population Gp by 2000 Negroponte1 Gp by 2000 Negroponte

25 NUPC 1998 Growth in hype WWW Infoway addiction Infoway regulation lawsuits Data from Gordons WAG conferences books, newspapers Infoway promise: how great itll be (politicians, academics, etc.)

26 NUPC 1998 Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Communication Cyberization Programs, Content & messages

27 NUPC 1998 Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Telephony Television

28 NUPC 1998 Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

29 NUPC 1998 Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

30 NUPC 1998 New or old money… its just bits Prepaid Credit Cash Check ATM / Prepaid

31 NUPC 1998 Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

32 NUPC 1998 Buying & selling stock: what a pain! Faxes? Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.

33 NUPC 1998 Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

34 NUPC 1998 Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) moneydatabase, smart card, credit card, debit card statementsweb access bills / checksbill present. / check free couponscyber-coupons stockdatabase, web statements, reportsweb access, +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placementsweb access, trade confirmationdirect trades mail votingon line voting

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36 Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

37 NUPC 1998 Telepresence … being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling Telepresentations Telemeetings The work

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39 Motivation: Telepresentations Presenter and/or audience telepresent NOT: meeting or collaboration settings Forget the nasty social issues! Mostly one-way

40 NUPC 1998 Telepresentation Elements è Slides è Audio Video Script, text comments, hyperlinks, etc.

41 NUPC 1998 Telepresentations: The Essentials Slide and audio a must Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good Storage and transmission costs low

42 NUPC 1998 Telepresentations: The Killer App Increased attendance & lower travel costs Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internet

43 NUPC 1998 Todays Experiment Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this – At home? – At another time? How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?

44 NUPC 1998 Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupidhttp://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

45 NUPC 1998 Telepresence hold a meeting of type, m university or technical course interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, town hall, with p, distributed persons with as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresent meetings are provably more productive meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

46 NUPC 1998 Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

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48 Mobile videophone

49 NUPC 1998 Honda Robot

50 NUPC 1998 People surrogates

51 NUPC 1998 Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupidhttp://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

52 NUPC 1998 By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

53 NUPC 1998 Living in Cyberspace

54 NUPC 1998 Intrastructure

55 NUPC 1998 SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps Phone POTS (legacy services) *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.... LAN PC NC*PC... Phone

56 NUPC 1998 Libretto,.5mm pencil PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;

57 NUPC 1998 Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness – need for communication/stimulation – chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas – loss of group/teamwork skills – danger of becoming terminal interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with people

58 NUPC 1998 A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace? Spock formal (in writing) Self-control informal (verbal) Sally Field Souter Evangelism Swaggert Analyticals.. being right, detailed anal retentives Drivers… results orient. megalo- maniacs Amiables… consensus builders spineless wimps Expressives... want recognition, need contact psychotics Managing Interpersonal Relationships (MIR) 2D Model chat broadcast - push Intensity

59 NUPC 1998 Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

60 NUPC 1998 The Guardian Angel

61 NUPC 1998 Steve Mann in Cyberspace

62 NUPC 1998 Medtronics Implanted Cardioplastic

63 NUPC 1998 Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB

64 NUPC 1998 Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

65 NUPC 1998 The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory… When we can store everything weve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plus physical parameters.

66 NUPC 1998 What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge – recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images – help in being the guardian angel What are the apps when we can do this?

67 NUPC 1998 Vannevar Bush c1945 There will always be plenty of things to compute... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all ones books, records, and communications, and... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography

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69 Storing all weve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K M/G G speech 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

70 NUPC 1998 Sizes of various information stores that an individual might need Gigabyte1,000,000, ,000 books 10,000,000,000disk, 4 years of read text 300,000,000,000lifetime of read text Terabyte1,000,000,000,000lifetime of coded speech 25,000,000,000,000lifetime of video, low Q 100,000,000,000,000lifetime of Petabyte1,000,000,000,000,000lifetime of hi-Q video

71 NUPC 1998 Some Tera-Byte Databases Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Hotmail: 7 TB of Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week) – 15 PB by 2007 Federal Clearing house: images of checks – 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history) Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program – 10 Exabytes (???!!)

72 NUPC 1998 Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A novel A letter Library of Congress (text) All Disks All Tapes A Movie LoC (image) Info Capture You can record everything you see or hear or read. What would you do with it? How would you organize & analyze it? Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h) Audio 30 TB (10KB/s) Read/write:8 GB (words) See:

73 NUPC 1998 Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A novel A letter LoC (text) All Tapes A Movie LoC (image) All Photos LoC (sound + cinema) All Information! All Disks

74 NUPC X in 40 years (6% per year)

75 NUPC 1998 Library Volume Growth 10X in 150 years

76 NUPC 1998 Now how do you find or use the rich information Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporations IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

77 NUPC 1998 Color B&W Brightness Contrast Volume Speech-Music Meta Information Image Recognition for Objects Speech Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis Context Relevance Viewing Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork SmartMedia Technologies

78 NUPC 1998 Virage Video Cataloger

79 NUPC 1998 Sizes of various information stores Gigabyte1,000,000,000shelf of scanned paper, large book stack 10,000,000,000movie, large disk 200,000,000,0002 floor library, videotape Terabyte1,000,000,000,000million volume library 20,000,000,000,000Lib of Congress, disk array Petabyte1,000,000,000,000,000a national library 15,000,000,000,000,00disk production 1995

80 NUPC 1998 Library of Congress bits... Scanned LC1PB assumes 6B pages 13M photos13TB 4M maps200TB 500K movies500TB 3.5M recordings2,000TB 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person

81 NUPC 1998 Publicly generated bits per year Cinema5K200 TB Images (all)52G520 PB Broadcast (station) /10 PB Recordings100K60 TB Telephone (min.)500G400 PB Videotapes

82 NUPC 1998

83 The end


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