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ACM 97 The Next Fifty Years of Software Nathan P. Myhrvold Chief Technology Officer Microsoft Corporation.

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Presentation on theme: "ACM 97 The Next Fifty Years of Software Nathan P. Myhrvold Chief Technology Officer Microsoft Corporation."— Presentation transcript:

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2 ACM 97 The Next Fifty Years of Software Nathan P. Myhrvold Chief Technology Officer Microsoft Corporation

3 ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

4 ACM 97 Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACMs copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

5 ACM 97 James Burke Master of Ceremonies

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10 NATHAN MYHRVOLD

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12 The Next Fifty Years of Software Nathan P. Myhrvold Chief Technology Officer Microsoft Corporation

13 ACM 97 Software: The Crisis Continues! Nathan P. Myhrvold Unrepentant Programmer & Theoretical Physicist

14 ACM 97 A Brief History of the Universe Quantum gravitational fluctuation starts expanding Inflationary expansion grows exponentially Expansion slows and particles condense from quark plasma Radiation from initial fireball red shifts by expansion to 3 degrees K Matter condenses, ultimately into the San Jose Convention center

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16 A Brief History of Information Writing is invented Johan Gutenberg invents moveable type and modern printing Von Neumann et. al invent the computer The microprocessor brings computing to everyone Networks hook us all together

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19 Moores Law Price/performance Price/performance 1,000,000X boost in last 20 years 1,000,000X boost in last 20 years 1,000,000X more in the next 20 years 1,000,000X more in the next 20 years Likely to continue for at least 40 years Likely to continue for at least 40 years

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23 Bytes/$ DRAM Doubling time 964 days Growth rate 30% per year

24 ACM 97 Software Co. Stock Price

25 ACM 97 Software Co. Stock Price Doubling time 694 days Growth rate 44% per year

26 ACM 97 Log (Stock Price/DRAM $ per bit)

27 ACM 97 Nathans 1st Law of Software It expands to fit the container it is in! Software is a gas!

28 ACM 97 Windows NT Lines of Code Doubling time 866 days Growth rate 33.9% per year

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30 Browser Code Growth Doubling time 216 days Growth rate 221% per year

31 ACM 97 Nathans 2nd Law of Software Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser) Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser) Software grows until it becomes limited by Moores Law

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33 Nathans 2nd Law of Software Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser) Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser) Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT) Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT) Bring any processor to its knees, just before the new model is out Bring any processor to its knees, just before the new model is out Software grows until it becomes limited by Moores Law

34 ACM 97 Nathans 3rd Law of Software Thats why people buy new hardware - economic motivator Thats why people buy new hardware - economic motivator Software growth makes Moores Law possible

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36 Nathans 3rd Law of Software Thats why people buy new hardware - economic motivator Thats why people buy new hardware - economic motivator Thats why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper Thats why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software Software growth makes Moores Law possible

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38 Nathans 4th Law of Software Its impossible to have enough Its impossible to have enough Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation

39 ACM 97 Nathans 4th Law of Software Its impossible to have enough Its impossible to have enough New algorithms New algorithms Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation

40 ACM 97 Nathans 4th Law of Software Its impossible to have enough Its impossible to have enough New algorithms New algorithms New applications and new users New applications and new users Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation

41 ACM 97 Nathans 4th Law of Software Its impossible to have enough Its impossible to have enough New algorithms New algorithms New applications and new users New applications and new users New notions of what is cool New notions of what is cool Software is only limited by human ambition & expectation

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43 The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble Von Neumann had trouble

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45 The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble Von Neumann had trouble Software is always in crisis Software is always in crisis

46 ACM 97 The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble Von Neumann had trouble Software is always in crisis Software is always in crisis Is there some limit to complexity? Is there some limit to complexity? Will software ever grow up? Will software ever grow up?

47 ACM 97 The Software Crisis! Von Neumann had trouble Von Neumann had trouble Software is always in crisis Software is always in crisis Is there some limit to complexity? Is there some limit to complexity? Will software ever grow up? Will software ever grow up? Will the crisis ever end? Will the crisis ever end? Of course not!

48 ACM 97 The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions Panacea solutions – High level languages – Object oriented programming – Component software,...

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50 The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions Panacea solutions – High level languages – Object oriented programming – Component software,... Benefits absorbed by rising expectations Benefits absorbed by rising expectations

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52 The Perpetual Crisis Panacea solutions Panacea solutions – High level languages – Object oriented programming – Component software,... Benefits absorbed by rising expectations Benefits absorbed by rising expectations Software will never be easy Software will never be easy Somebody will push the boundary Somebody will push the boundary

53 ACM 97 Synthetic Actors

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55 Mommy, look at my T. rex!

56 ACM 97 Future Software Techniques Genetic programming Genetic programming Software husbandry Software husbandry – Tending virtual flocks How does software complexity compare to genetic complexity? How does software complexity compare to genetic complexity?

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59 Which is Bigger? Madonna: The Genotype Evita Evita: The Motion Picture

60 ACM 97 The Movie Wins Madonna: The Genotype Evita 4 Gbytes ~1 Gbyte ~1 Gbyte Evita: The Motion Picture

61 ACM 97 Genetic Complexity Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Individual difference ~ 0.25% Individual difference ~ 0.25%

62 ACM 97 Genetic Complexity Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Individual difference ~ 0.25% Individual difference ~ 0.25% Loss less compression 2:1 Loss less compression 2:1 Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes

63 ACM 97 Genetic Complexity Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Human Genome ~ 1 Gbyte Individual difference ~ 0.25% Individual difference ~ 0.25% Loss less compression 2:1 Loss less compression 2:1 Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes Individual ~ 1.2 Mbytes You fit on a floppy disk

64 ACM 97 Genetic Diversity? Human population < 3.7 Tbytes Human population < 3.7 Tbytes Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes Like a big web site! Like a big web site!

65 ACM 97 Genetic Diversity? Human population < 3.7 Tbytes Human population < 3.7 Tbytes Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes Compress relatives < 1 Tbytes Like a big web site! Like a big web site! Diversity of all animals on earth? Diversity of all animals on earth? About the size of the web in a few years! About the size of the web in a few years!

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67 The Ultimate Computer Learning more about the brain every day Learning more about the brain every day

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71 The Ultimate Computer Learning more about the brain every day Learning more about the brain every day AI will happen AI will happen Computers with same power in 20 to 30 years Computers with same power in 20 to 30 years Brain has no Moores Law Brain has no Moores Law

72 ACM 97 Programming The Ultimate Computer When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them? When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them? Human takes 20 years to boot! Human takes 20 years to boot!

73 ACM 97 Programming The Ultimate Computer When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them? When computers are as smart as humans, how do you program them? Human takes 20 years to boot! Human takes 20 years to boot! Must we teach them? Must we teach them?

74 ACM 97 Humans as Software Uploading to become a program

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77 Humans as Software Uploading to become a program

78 ACM 97 Operating Systems for Human Software Housing uploads Housing uploads Treat human upload as an application program Treat human upload as an application program Provide memory & other services Provide memory & other services Peripherals to deal with real world Peripherals to deal with real world

79 ACM 97 Separated at Birth? Windows Windows 2047

80 ACM 97 Separated at Birth? Multitasking Multiple personalities Virtual memory Windows Windows 2047 Virtual memory

81 ACM 97 Separated at Birth? Multitasking Multiple personalities Virtual memory Compatible with DOS applications Compatible with meat based humans GUI You & I > 640 Kilobytes > 640 Petabytes Windows Windows 2047 Virtual memory

82 ACM 97 See you in 2047!

83 ACM 97 NATHAN MYHRVOLD


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