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The Tech Several Challenges Going Forward Know Zone Lecture The Tech 5 May 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation.

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1 The Tech Several Challenges Going Forward Know Zone Lecture The Tech 5 May 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

2 The Tech Some challenges Fifty years ago the first stored program computer ran at Manchester. Now, we should posit challenges for the next five decades that will exploit computing. Several challenges are inter- related because they depend on being able to analyze and synthesize human voice and images. Already, humans have failed the Turing test when communicating via printed text. When will computers be able to win when communicating via telephone or videophone? Given this capability and the extraordinary advances in processing and storage, we should be able to build systems that can record, store, and retrieve everything we have read (written), heard (said), and seen (performed or been a part of).

3 The Tech The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans – Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them – Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). – Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels – A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies

4 The Tech Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year – Chip density – Microprocessor speed Exponential growth: – The past does not matter – 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change PC costs decline faster than any other platform – Volume and learning curves – PCs are the building bricks of all future systems Moores First Law

5 The Tech Bells Law of Computer Class Formation Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 =.8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 =.62 Mini Handheld ?? Time Mainframes (central) PCs (personals) Log price WSs

6 The Tech Bells Nine Computer Price Tiers Super server: costs more than $100,000 Mainframe: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$:pocket/ palm computers 1,000$:portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$:site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$:regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$:national centers

7 The Tech Platform evolution: What do they do thats useful? How do they communicate?

8 The Tech Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1 1947195719671977198719972007 Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per yearStorage Backbone Memory Processing Telephone Service 17% / year ??

9 The Tech Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 199520052015202520352045 20%= Teraops 40%= Petaops 60%= Exaops

10 The Tech Going forward… Seven challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

11 The Tech Turing test: you cant tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using: Text… limited context Voice – context – speech to text and text to speed Visual image and voice – more context – synthesis of dynamic, human images

12 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

13 The Tech Region/Intranet Campus, including SANs Home Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Car

14 The Tech Everything will be in Cyberspace Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables new computing platforms that require new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content – Three evolutionary dimensions

15 The Tech Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks

16 The Tech Atoms vs Electrons for bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) people knowcomputers know bricks & mortaranywhere (personnel/clients) office hoursanytime database & reportsweb access for review and transactions letter & faxemail & web access phoneemail, voice & video mail personal visitsvideophone / videomail signatureauthenticated images envelopesdigital envelopes / store voice, text are uniquebits take on any form

17 The Tech By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the net. Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002. Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

18 The Tech Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market – for networks – for access devices… especially PCs It says something about the utility – commerce – communication – entertainment Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables – phones – videophones – television – serendipity

19 The Tech Internetters growth 95969798990001020304 Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

20 The Tech Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Communication Cyberization Programs, Content & messages

21 The Tech Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Telephony Television Will we have gateways?

22 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

23 The Tech Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

24 The Tech New or old money… its just bits Prepaid Credit Cash Check ATM / Prepaid

25 The Tech Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

26 The Tech Buying & selling stock: what a pain! Faxes? ( Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)

27 The Tech Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

28 The Tech

29 Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) moneydatabase, smart card, credit card, debit card statementsweb access bills / checksbill present. / check free couponscyber-coupons stockdatabase, web statements, reportsweb access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placementsweb access, email trade confirmationdirect trades mail votingon line voting

30 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

31 The Tech Telepresence … being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling Telepresentations Telemeetings and telecollaboration The work

32 The Tech

33 Motivation: Telepresentations Presenter and/or audience telepresent NOT: meeting or collaboration settings Forget the nasty social issues! Mostly one-way

34 The Tech Telepresentation Elements è Slides è Audio Video Script, text comments, hyperlinks, etc.

35 The Tech Telepresentations: The Essentials Slide and audio a must Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good Storage and transmission costs low

36 The Tech Telepresentations: The Killer App Increased attendance & lower travel costs Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internet http://research.microsoft.com/acm97

37 The Tech What about telecollaboration? … working together at a distance

38 The Tech Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

39 The Tech

40 Telework: its the sound, screens, and bandwidth, stupidhttp://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

41 The Tech Mobile videophone

42 The Tech Honda Robot

43 The Tech People surrogates

44 The Tech By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

45 The Tech Living in Cyberspace … the infrastructure being always connected is essential

46 The Tech Intrastructure

47 The Tech SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps Phone POTS (legacy services) *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.... LAN PC NC*PC... Phone

48 The Tech Attending simultaneous meetings

49 The Tech Telepresence Challenge hold a meeting of type, m university or technical course interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, town hall, with p, distributed persons with as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresent meetings are provably more productive meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

50 The Tech Milli-bill, another type of telepresence...

51 The Tech Fujitsu 42 plasma panel

52 The Tech MilliBill Large, general purpose panel – Paintings, photos, videos, a new art medium, and – even TV – Becomes a true window to anywhere Voice interface Evolves to cover entire wall so that everyone can be by a window

53 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

54 The Tech The Guardian Angel Knows about your state of health. Has the latest medical knowledge.

55 The Tech Your husband just died, … heres his black box

56 The Tech Steve Mann in Cyberspace

57 The Tech Libretto,.5mm pencil PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;

58 The Tech A device that would have saved me from a heart attack

59 The Tech BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks Temperature monitoring with the flu Saved me from a heart attack Where is the person, exactly… a baby sitter Lets interact… ala Barney

60 The Tech Medtronics Implanted Cardioplastic stimulator cardio- recorder

61 The Tech Moores law is less important than MEMS

62 The Tech 4 Experts Predict Bionics Wired, February 1997 Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005 Bionic Limbs 2013 Artificial Vision 2040 Bionic Person (unlikely)

63 The Tech Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB

64 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

65 The Tech The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory… When we can store everything weve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plus physical parameters.

66 The Tech What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge – recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images – helps the guardian angel What are the apps? when we can do this?

67 The Tech Vannevar Bush c1945 There will always be plenty of things to compute... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all ones books, records, and communications, and... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography

68 The Tech

69 My project … putting my legacy and future bits in Cyberspace http://www.research.microsoft/ Personal paper documents – Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos, notes, email, notebooks, drawings Encode video and audio lectures Current electronic media – email, files, papers, photos (now digital) – voice notes and records Would like to capture photos and slides

70 The Tech The other side… finding and getting the bits out of Cyberspace Retrieval is the next challenge – Database(s) – Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.) – Icons so people can help the computer Being able to see and use electronic bits as well as paper bits will have to wait until display technology appears

71 The Tech Technology: getting, storing, and finding those bits The Source: bits on paper, computers, video/audiotape, telephones, cameras, etc. Capturing & encoding – 1D (Word) & 2 D documents, photos, etc. – voice – video Recognizing when necessary… MIPS help OCR is almost as fast as reading the file Storing … disks are getting cheaper Organizing… databases are many and fragmented Retrieving however possible

72 The Tech Capture and encoding

73 The Tech HP Digital Sender… color document scanner

74 The Tech Sony voice notes recorder…

75 The Tech Evolving cameras to capture images and voice notes

76 The Tech A word about storage… CDs hold 6 near VHS quality videos (300 Kbps)

77 The Tech Coexisting with Paper Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer – portable: read anywhere, anyway, anytime – contrast ratio – resolution (3-30x screens) – form factor, weight – ubiquity, cost, infrastructure – with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium For many documents, paper is very expensive – large and multiple documents are heavy – hard to transmit – difficult to store (only access is via people) – computer cannot access them Goal: use paper as a loss-less bit medium

78 The Tech Book page

79 The Tech Computer-Paper Co-existence Goals for encoding paper for the computer – Handling must be as easy as discarding it – Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve in every possible context – Interface: unobtrusive and humane Put all documents in Cyberspace – Ubiquitous scanners are key! – Totally eliminate the need for copiers – Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets

80 The Tech Storing all weve read (written), heard (said), & seen (participated) Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K 2 -10 M/G60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

81 The Tech Now how do you find or use the rich information The system must: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporations IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

82 The Tech Thumbnails to aid retrieval

83 The Tech Color B&W Brightness Contrast Volume Speech-Music Meta Information Image Recognition for Objects Speech Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis Context Relevance Viewing Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork SmartMedia Technologies

84 The Tech Virage Video Cataloger

85 The Tech Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money, ownership… risk Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use Infinitely scalable systems

86 The Tech Billions Of Clients Need Millions Of Servers Mobile clients Fixed clients Server Superserver Clients Servers All clients networked to servers All clients networked to servers May be nomadic or on-demand May be nomadic or on-demand Fast clients want faster servers Fast clients want faster servers Servers provide Servers provide Shared Data Shared Data Control Control Coordination Coordination Communication Communication

87 The Tech Cluster: Shared What? Shared Memory Multiprocessor – Multiple processors, one memory – all devices are local – DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN Shared Disk Cluster – an array of nodes – all shared common disks – VAXcluster + Oracle Shared Nothing Cluster – each device local to a node – ownership may change – Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack

88 The Tech SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms Standard (I.e. commodity) platform The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the network ubiquitous … and great! Common operating system for platform, reducing vendor and customer costs, and enables affordable, standard apps Cluster technology Apps are TRANSPARENT!!!

89 The Tech SNAP Systems circa ­ 2000 Local & global data comm world ATM & Ethernet: to PC, workstation, & servers Wide-area global ATM network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Centralized & departmental servers built from PCs scalable computers built from PCs & SANs TC=TV+PC home... (CATV or ATM or satellite) ??? Portables A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment Person servers (PCs) Mobile Nets Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals

90 The Tech Scaling dimensions include: reliability… including always up number of nodes – most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane – highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations

91 The Tech Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2) LNL/Cray: ? Maui Supercomputer Center – 512x1 SP2 U.S. Tax Dollars At Work ASCI for Stockpile Stewardship

92 The Tech 192 HP 300 MHz 64 Compaq 333 MHz Andrew Chien, CS UIUC-->UCSD Rob Pennington, NCSA Myrinet Network, HPVM, Fast Msgs Microsoft NT OS, MPI API Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices-- Jim Gray, Microsoft The Alliance LES NT Supercluster

93 The Tech The Grid: Blueprint for a New Computing Infrastructure Ian Foster, Carl Kesselman (Eds), Morgan Kaufmann, 1999 Published July 1998; ISBN 1-55860-475-8 22 chapters by expert authors including: – Andrew Chien, – Jack Dongarra, – Tom DeFanti, – Andrew Grimshaw, – Roch Guerin, – Ken Kennedy, – Paul Messina, – Cliff Neuman, – Jon Postel, – Larry Smarr, – Rick Stevens, – Charlie Catlett – John Toole – and many others http://www.mkp.com/grids A source book for the history of the future -- Vint Cerf

94 The Tech Infinite or indefinite parallelism… use installed machines 10,000 nodes in 1998 or 10x Increase Assume 100K nodes 10 Gflops/10GBy/100GB nodes or low end c2010 PCs Communication is first problem… use the network Programming is still the major barrier Will any problems fit it

95 The Tech Challenge: Is it possible to use millions of computers for a single, large scale project?

96 The Tech The end


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