1. Feynman Perturbation Expansion for Coupon Bond Option Price in a Field Theory of Interest Rates by Belal E. Baaquie Department of Physics NUS

2. Outline of Talk Field theory of forward interest rates Empirical tests of the model Coupon Bond Options Feynman Perturbation Expansion Empirical Analysis of Swaptions Reference: ‘Quantum Finance’ by B E Baaquie Cambridge University Press (2004) http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.a sp?isbn=0521840457 http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.a sp?isbn=0521840457

3. Forward Interest Rates where the forward price of the bond at time t * is defined by

4. Domain of Forward Interest Rates f(t,x) Note that x>t for f(t,x), with f(t,t)=r(t): spot interest rate. The maximum future time T FR for which the interest rates is about 30 years, and is usually taken to be infinite.

5. Forward Interest Rates: A Quantum Field Both the forward interest rates f(t,x) and its derived velocity field A(t,x) are considered to be two dimensional quantum fields; for each t and each x f(t,x) (and A(t,x)) is an independent (random) integration variable.

6. Quantum Theory of Forward Rates

7. ‘Stiff’ Action for the Forward Interest Rates

8. Empirical Test of the Field Theory Model Discretize time so that t=n  where  1day. Define Then, for  ’  x’-t, the propagator is Hence

9. Empirical Propagator Market data for Libor (London Interbank Offer Rates) for Eurodollar deposits yields the following market normalized correlator

10. Libor Data Fitted by the ‘Stiff’ Propagator Inset line is the slope orthogonal to the diagonal with dashed line for  Recall z=(x-t   

11. Treasury Coupon Bonds

12. Coupon Bond Option Note C(t 0, t *, K) is the price of the option and K is it’s strike price.

13. The Payoff Function The fundamental idea in evaluating the price of the coupon bond option is to perturb the price about the Forward Coupon Bond price. where the forward price of the bond F and the perturbation term V (later seen to be a ‘potential’ term in the action S[A]) are given by ;

14. The Partition Function The Dirac delta function is given by

15. Nonlinear Quantum Field Theory

16. Perturbation Expansion

17. Forward Price Correlator The expansion coefficients are given in terms of the correlator G ij, which is the correlation between two Forward Bond Prices F i = F(t 0,t *,T i ) with F j = F(t 0,t *,T j ). Given below is a graph of correlator Gij and its diagramatic representation.

18. Feynman Diagrams for the Perturbation Expansion Coefficient A Coefficient B The value of the coefficient D=0 due to the martingale condition.

19. Convergent Expansion for Z(  )

20. Coupon Bond Option Price Note in graph B=C=0.

21. Swaps

22. Swaptions

23. Market and Model’s Price for Libor Swaptions (At the Money)

24. Conclusions Historical data for forward interest rates is described to an accuracy of over 99% by the quantum field theory model. Coupon bond option yields a highly nonlinear theory quantum field theory. The regularity of the effective propagator M(x,x;t)=  2 (t,x) is reason that divergences characteristic of field theories are absent in the Feynman diagrams for the swaption price. Pricing of coupon bond option is possible as a perturbation expansion because the volatility of the forward rates  2 (t,x) is a small parameter. Field theory model predicts swaption prices for the market quite accurately and also matches the trends of the market. All the correlators of the two or more swaptions can be computed in the field theory model.