1. Friday, September 11, 2015 AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa International Food Policy Research Institute

2. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

3. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

4. PRE-CRISIS ERA COINCIDED WITH LONGEST PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GROWTH SINCE 60S SOURCE: Badiane 2008: IFPRI Policy Brief No. 9

5. THE GROWTH IS ACCELERATING AS WELL AS SPREADING GEOGRAPHICALLY SOURCE: IFPRI / Badiane and Ulimwengu Data from national account s / UN database: http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMAhttp://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA

6. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BETTER PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE PERFORMANCE AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME) AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AFRICA AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY WORLD

7. SOURCE: IFPRI/Fan. 2007H POVERTY LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO DECLINE BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO MEET MDG1 POVERTY HEAD COUNT; $1/DAY

8. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

9. THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE CRISIS OF 2007-08 Source: J. von Braun; Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

10. WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA? ECOWAS Countries Source: ReSAKSS West Africa Node

11. WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA? COMESA Countries Source: ReSAKSS East Africa Node

12. Source: IFPRI / M. Rosegrant (prelim. results with IMPACT-WATER). US$/ton LONG TERM WORLD FOOD PRICE TRENDS AND GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA

13. IndiaChinaBrazilNigeria Cereals1.00.81.21.0 Meat1.22.41.71.0 Milk1.23.01.21.3 Fish1.22.30.90.8 Fruits1.33.50.81.1 Vegetables1.32.91.3 Source: IFPRI/ v. Braun - Data from FAO 2007. 2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDS INCOME & POPULATION GROWTH, MEAT AND DAIRY CONSUMPTION

14. Source: IFPRI / v. Braun - Data from FAO 2003, 2005-08. * Forecast. Million tons Total Million tons FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDS VERY SLOW GROWTH IN FOOD PRODUCTION OVER THE LAST DECADE

15. Individual Countries DRC CAR RATIO VALUE AGRIC TRADE TO AGRIC GDP 2000 - 2006 AFRICA NOTES: Agricultural trade is the value of agricultural exports plus value of agricultural imports SOURCES: Agricultural trade: Food and Agriculture Organization, FOASTAT 2008 Agricultural value added: World Development Indicators, 2008 VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL MARKET CHANGES

16. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

17. THE IMPACT CHANNELS 1 RECESSION – EXPORT DEMAND - TERMS OF TRADE AG. REVENUES 3 FOREX AND FISCAL DEFICITS AG EXPENDITURE / INVESTMENT 2 LIQUIDITY TRAP – FDI – REMITTANCES -TRADE CREDIT AG. FINANCE 4 DOMESTIC AND ASSISTANCE POLICY RESPONSES SECTOR RESPONSE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON AGRICULTURE

18. IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS DEMAND, PRICES, AND AFRICAN EXPORTS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IMPACT ON OVERALL AFRICAN EXPORTS Source: IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde Price data from IMF World Economic Outlook

19. Page 19 Source: IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde Finance constraints (actual country estimates)

20. Page 20 FDI AND AGRICULTURAL SECTOR GROWTH IN AFRICA Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu

21. Page 21 FINANCIAL CRISIS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH 1970-19801981-1990 1991-19992000-2006 Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu

22. Page 22 MACROECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN AFRICA Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

23. Page 23 THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

24. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

25. Page 25 THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP) PILLAR FRAMEWORKS SECTOR COMPACTS KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS BETTER POLICY, GROWTH, POVERTY, AND FOOD SECURITY OUTCOMES STRATEGIC ISSUES SUCCESS FACTORS BEST PRACTICES POLICY ELEMENTS LT INVEST. OPTIONS COMMITMENTS -SECTOR POLICIES - BUDGET POLICIES - DEV. ASSISTANCE - POLICY DIALOGUE BENCHMARKING PEER REVIEW MUTUAL LEARNING SHARED LT FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP AND ACCOUNTABILITY EVIDENCE/OUTCOME BASED PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION

26. 1. MAKE SURE THAT THE COUNTRY IS ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE THE CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGETARY OBJECTIVES, IF NOT 2. IDENTIFY EVENTUAL GAPS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICY, BUDGETARY, AND INVESTMENT MEASURES OBJECTIVES AND OUTCOMES OF COUNTRY ROUND TABLE AND COMPACT OBJECTIVE OF ROUND TABLES ELABORATION OF A COUNTRY CAADP COMPACT TO GUIDE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP IN THE LONG TERM, INCLUDING: 1. COMMITMENTS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICIES, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 2. ESTABLISHEMENT OF PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP 3. CREATION OF A MECHANISM FOR PEER REVIEW AND DIALOGUE TO TRACK IMPEMENTATION PERFORMANCE AND THE PROGRESS IN MEETING THE AGREED ON COMMITEMENTS OUTCOMES OF ROUND TABLES: CAADP COMPACT

27. CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES I. DEVELOPED COMPREHENSIVE AND OBJECTIVE DRIVEN STRATEGY FRAMEWORK WITH LIMITED SET OF CLEAR TARGETS II. EVALUATE COUNTRY EFFORTS AGAINST DEFINED TARGETS SHARED INVESTMENT AND PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK III. SPECIFY ALTERNATIVE ACTION SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES BASELINES - MILESTONES - ACTION TARGETS - TOOLS IV. SET UP BENCHMARKING AND LEARNING MECHANISMS KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE V. ESTABLISH POLICY REVIEW AND DIALOGUE PLATFORM INCLUSIVE FORA AT COUNTRY LEVEL AND BEYOND

28. 1 OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 3 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 2 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 4 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES 5 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS

29. Actual Poverty Rate in 1990 LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 1 BRIDGING THE GROWTH GAP TO ACCELERATE POVERTY REDUCTION

30. LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 2 BRIDGING THE EXPENDITURE GAP TO ACCELERATE GROWTH Actual Poverty Rate in 1990 Source: Dollar a Day Poverty Rates from World Bank, PovCal Net, 2008 [poverty line $1.25]; Projected CAADP Poverty Rates from various IFPRI country CAADP Growth Simulation Studies

31. THE EXPENDITURE CONVERGENCE AGENDA: MAXIMIZING SYNERGY BETWEEN GROWTH AND SOCIAL INVESTMENTS Sources: Government spending: Global database on public spending, DSGD, IFPRI, 2009; and ODA: OECD, 2008

32. HEALTH SERVICESEDUCATION SERVICES EFFECT OF 10% INCREASE IN SERVICES EXPENDITURE ON SOCIAL OUTCOMES, AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY, AND POVERTY

33. BASIC STRATEGIC QUESTIONS 1 HOW TO MAXIMIZE LONG TERM GROWTH WHILE MEETING SHORT TERM SOCIAL NEEDS 2 HOW TO MAXIMIZE SYNERGY BETWEEN SOCIAL SERVICES AND PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCING INVESTMENTS MEETING THE DOUBLE CHALLENGE OF GROWTH ACCELERATION AND SOCIAL PROTECTION 3 HOW TO EXPLOIT GROWTH EXTERNALITIES OF SOCIAL SERVICES 4 HOW TO IMPROVE CONSIDERATION OF GROWTH SYNERGIES IN BUDGET PLANNING AND NEGOTIATIONS

34. Page 34 CONCLUSIONS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES  HAS REMARKABLE RECOVERY COMPENSATED FOR THE 2.5 DECADE ECON. STAGNATION? NO o STILL LARGE POCKETS OF POVERTY o PROGRESS TOWARDS POVERTY MDG PICKED UP PACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR MOST o NEED TO ACCELERATE AND BROADEN GROWTH TO REDUCE POVERTY FASTER 1

35. Page 35 CONCLUSIONS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES  GLOBAL CRISES ARE A THREAT BUT ALSO FULL OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN ECONOMIES  AFRICAN ECONOMIES HAVE SHOWN GREATER RESILIENCE THAN DURING PAST CRISES  AFRICAN AGRICULTURE IS WELL POSITIONED TO COMPETE AND BENEFIT FROM LONG TERM GLOBAL PRICE TRENDS  UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP TO: o IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION o RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE. 2

36. Page 36 CONCLUSIONS AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES  THE RECOVERY OF LAST 15 YEARS HAS CREATED A STRONG FOUNDATION TO BUILD UPON  BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HIGHER RETURNS TO INVESTMENTS IN AND ASSISTANCE TO AFRICA  UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP TO: o IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION o RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE o AND SUSTAIN / DEEPENTHE RECOVERY PROCESS 3